World Briefing Plus | Journalism Under Threat & Ukraine’s Darkening Horizon

A new UN finding confirms transnational repression of journalists is rising — driven by digital surveillance and technology. I break down what that means for press freedom globally. Then: the war in Ukraine. Recent strikes on Kyiv, red lines crossed by Russia, and a major blow to Kyiv’s war effort - allied nations have blocked a landmark commitment to dedicate 0.25% of GDP to Ukraine, a deal that would have tripled annual aid from $45bn to $143bn. And the UK has now loosened sanctions on Russian refined oil - a troubling signal at a deeply vulnerable moment for Ukraine.

The head of the World Health Organization has raised the alarm over the speed of the current Ebola outbreak in central Africa, which has so far claimed at least 220 lives. “We are urgently scaling up operations, ‌but at the moment the epidemic is outpacing us,” Director-General Tedros ⁠Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday, telling an online meeting of the African Union that health workers are “playing catch-up” as the number of suspected cases tops 900. Tedros will tomorrow travel to Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), in whose Ituri province the current outbreak is centred. The DRC has had more than a dozen Ebola outbreaks over the decades. Health experts say international aid cuts last year by the US and other rich nations are devastating for eastern Congo because of the region’s unique problems. The response has been hampered by fear, anger and frustration among locals, including attacks on treatment centres, as well as distrust of authorities in a region long plagued by armed violence. Aid groups fighting the current Ebola outbreak also say they don’t have the equipment they need, such as face shields and suits to protect health workers from infection, testing kits, and body bags and other materials needed to safely bury the bodies of victims, which can be highly contagious. Ugandan health authorities on Saturday confirmed the first local infections: a driver and a health worker exposed to the Congolese patient who died on May 11. Two more health workers at a private hospital in Kampala have since tested positive, the Ministry of Health said on Monday. The Bundibugyo type of Ebola virus responsible for the current outbreak has no approved vaccine or treatment. The outbreak has been declared a global health emergency. Tracing and isolating Ebola contacts is seen as key to stopping the spread of the disease, which usually manifests as hemorrhagic fever.

• A health alert has been issued in Italy's northern Lombardy region after two suspected cases of Ebola were detected in the province of Como. The cases concern a woman from Lurate Caccivio and a man from Bulgarograsso who returned from Uganda in the past 24 hours with other members of their families after spending around three months there as humanitarian aid workers.

  Both have developed symptoms consistent with the Ebola virus, including high fever, nausea, vomiting and intestinal problems. They were quickly transferred to Milan’s Sacco Hospital, a specialist facility for the management of high-risk infectious diseases, where tests required under national and international protocols are under way - Euronews

• Angry young men stormed a hospital treating Ebola patients at the heart of the latest outbreak of the disease in eastern Congo on Sunday evening, forcing the medical staff to scramble to evacuate the patients as gunfire rang out in the area.

  It was not immediately known if anyone was hurt in the attack on the Mongbwalu General Hospital but Dr. Richard Lokudu, the hospital’s medical director, told The Associated Press the attackers demanded that two bodies of their kin be handed over to them. There was gunfire and the medics were trying to evacuate the patients and the staff, Lokudu said over the phone. The attack — the third in a week’s time on healthcare facilities where medical workers struggle with lack of resources to treat suspected Ebola cases — underlined the challenges of the outbreak

The United States military said it carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran on May 25, targeting missile launch sites and Iranian boats allegedly attempting to lay mines near key shipping routes. In a statement, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the strikes were aimed at protecting American troops from what it described as threats posed by Iranian forces during a tense ceasefire period. According to the statement, US forces struck “missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines” in southern Iran. The strikes appeared to focus on areas near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important waterways for global oil shipments prior to the war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Explosions were earlier reported by Iranian news agencies in and around the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency later said the situation was “completely under control” and urged residents not to worry. The military action comes despite ongoing diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending months of confrontation. US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that negotiators were discussing the “final details” of a possible agreement, while Iranian officials said the two sides had reached a preliminary framework on several issues but that no deal was imminent. Both sides signaled major differences remain. Trump reiterated on May 25 that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile should either be handed over to the United States or “destroyed in place”. Iran, however, pushed back against reports suggesting it had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment. A senior Iranian diplomat reportedly dismissed such claims as “pure fabrication”, while the Iranian foreign ministry said that although some conclusions had been reached in negotiations, “that does not mean we’re close” to a final deal. The US and Iran have maintained a fragile ceasefire since April 8, though sporadic incidents have continued in the Gulf region - RFE/RL

Russia Hits Kyiv’s Heart — And NATO Allies Still Hesitate | CNN Analysis

Russia unleashed one of its most devastating attacks on Kyiv in recent months — firing more than 90 missiles and hundreds of drones in a strike that exposed growing cracks in Ukraine’s air defenses. Speaking live on CNN’s Isa Soares Tonight, I explained why this latest barrage may represent a dangerous new phase in the war. For the first time, key symbols of Ukraine’s statehood and national identity were hit or damaged: the Cabinet of Ministers area, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs vicinity, Maidan Square, and even exhibits at the Chornobyl Museum.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Monday issued a fresh warning of imminent strikes against Kyiv as part of an ongoing retaliation campaign for a deadly Ukrainian attack against the occupied Luhansk region late last week. Slamming what it described as the “Zelensky junta and its Western sponsors” for violating international law, the ministry said the May 22 attack on the Starobilsk Vocational School and its dormitory has pushed the war “past a breaking point.” “Under these circumstances, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are commencing a sequence of systemic strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities in Kyiv,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “Strikes will also be launched against decision-making centers and command posts.” The ministry explicitly warned foreign nationals, including the personnel of diplomatic missions and offices of international organizations, to leave the Ukrainian capital immediately. The warning comes after Russia launched a devastating weekend attack on Kyiv and the surrounding region using a combination of drones and missiles, including the ballistic missile Oreshnik - Moscow Times

Pope Leo XIV on Monday set out a sweeping vision for corporate executives, politicians and individuals who will shape and be shaped by the future of artificial intelligence, warning leaders to safeguard humanity from A.I.’s most disruptive effects. Leo’s declaration came in the form of a papal encyclical, an open letter to “all people of good will” that ran to roughly 42,300 words in its English version. It outlined his desire to protect human dignity and agency in an age in which technology threatens to replace humans in many professional and social roles. While emphasizing that “technology should not be considered, in itself, as a force antagonistic to humanity,” he wrote that “the pursuit of greater profits cannot justify choices that systematically sacrifice jobs.”

Among other things, Leo called for:

• government regulation of the private companies that are driving the development of A.I.

• protection and retraining for workers whose jobs are threatened

• education to help students think critically about the technology

• action to protect children from violent, hypersexualized or fake information online that is often generated by A.I.

• safeguards to ensure that humans, not artificial intelligence, remain responsible for all decisions regarding the use of weapons.

Above all he emphasized the importance of retaining a fundamental social role for all human beings. “A society that guarantees employment to only a small fraction of the population, despite having a high level of technical development, risks exposing many to forced inactivity,” he wrote - NYT

Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada on Monday drew on his experience with Brexit to warn that a referendum the province of Alberta is planning for October on a possible separation from Canada could turn out to be a “dangerous bluff.” Mr. Carney was governor of the Bank of England during the vote by Britain to leave the European Union in 2016. He now leads a country that could see its Western oil-rich province break away after Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta announced last week she would push for a referendum on separation. The vote, scheduled for Oct. 19, will ask Albertans to decide if they want to remain in Canada or if they want to hold a separate, binding referendum to secede. “I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was, vote for this, it’ll be soft, and then we’ll negotiate,” Mr. Carney told the news media in Ottawa on Monday. He was referring to the suggestion by some voters and politicians, who did not necessarily want Britain to leave the European Union but wanted to have a referendum on it, that the Brexit vote would help extract concessions from the European Union while staying in the bloc. “They’re still, 10 years later, trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for,” Mr. Carney added. Separatism in Alberta has long had the support of a small minority of voters, but the movement has grown in recent years. A poll by the Angus Reid Institute that was released on Monday found that 35 percent of Albertans would vote to pursue secession from Canada, meaning they would answer “yes” to the question to be posed in October. Polls in recent months have generally put support for secession at 25 percent to 30 percent. - NYT

Ten people were injured after a flight bound for Hong Kong was hit by severe turbulence. Four passengers and six crew members were injured on the Cathay Pacific flight from Brisbane to Hong Kong. Eight people were taken to the hospital for treatment. Passengers described a sudden, violent drop without warning shortly after breakfast service began on Flight CX156. One traveler compared the experience to “falling through a drop tower” in an interview with the South China Morning Post. Businessman Nicholas Stevenson told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation the aircraft “just dropped” and he feared it was “going down.” He said the turbulence struck twice within seconds, throwing passengers who were not belted into the air. “There were phones flying, coffees smashed into the roof,” he said, adding that “people were screaming.” Stevenson said the pilot suggested the turbulence was likely caused by a fast-developing storm cell that was not clearly visible on radar, but the exact cause is still unknown. According to unverified social media posts, another Cathay flight was hit by severe clear air turbulence this week, as it crossed the northern Philippines bound for Hong Kong.

The journals….

World Briefing - Hot Take

The ink is barely dry on another round of solidarity statements for Ukraine, and yet behind closed doors, some of Kyiv's loudest cheerleaders are doing something very different. While Russia rained down 90 missiles, around 700 drones, and - for only the third time in this war - a hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile on Ukrainian cities overnight, The Telegraph is reporting that Britain, France, Spain, Italy and Canada blocked a NATO proposal that would have tripled military aid to Kyiv. Mark Rutte's plan - a modest 0.25% of GDP commitment - is dead before the July NATO Ankara summit even opens. If approved, it would have pushed annual flows to Ukraine from $45 billion to $143 billion. Instead, allies balked. And in a particularly damaging detail for London, Britain also softened sanctions on Russian oil exports this week. As shown in the chart below, Canada and France are among the weakest performers on both defence spending and aid delivered - despite positioning themselves as frontline allies. Ukraine's friends, it seems, have plenty of words - and increasingly careful cheques.

News Briefs

Britain and France have scuppered a proposal for Nato allies to spend 0.25 per cent of GDP on military aid for Ukraine. Mark Rutte, the alliance’s secretary-general, this week conceded his plan wouldn’t be taken forward because it didn’t have sufficient support. “I don’t think this one will be proposed,” he told reporters, without naming the opponents. But now The Telegraph can reveal that the UK, France, Spain, Italy and Canada blocked the idea when it was floated in discussions for how to boost support for Kyiv. Mr Rutte was hoping to ratify the proposal at Nato’s upcoming annual summit in Ankara, Turkey. Ministers this week began discussions over what the alliance’s civilian chief believes should be a tangible show of support for the war-torn nation. An alliance insider said at least seven member states, who all spend over 0.25 per cent of GDP on military aid to Ukraine, had voiced support. But any proposals adopted by Nato require the unanimous backing of all of its national capitals. “They’re not very enthusiastic about the idea,” the insider said, labelling London, Paris, Madrid, Rome and Ottawa as opponents. The news will come as a double-blow to Britain’s credibility as one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies. This week, the Government came under intense criticism after it softened sanctions against Russian oil and gas exports. To the surprise of Kyiv and other allies, ministers signed off on a decision to offer time-limited carve-outs for purchases of jet fuel and diesel refined from Russian crude in third countries because of the situation in the Middle East. Unlike other allies, the size of Britain’s military contribution – the third largest behind the US and Germany – is not in question, despite coming under the 0.25 per cent of GDP mark - The Telegraph

If allies approved the idea, annual flows to Ukraine would effectively triple to $143 billion, based on the alliance's own estimate of combined NATO GDP. Last year, Ukraine received $45 billion in security aid from its allies — covering everything from buying weapons for its military to investments in Ukrainian defense companies and the NATO-led effort to buy U.S. weapons for Kyiv - Politico

• The Russian Defence Ministry has confirmed the launch of nuclear-capable Oreshnik missle, saying it came as part of a retaliatory attack following Ukrainian strikes against “civilian targets,” which Kyiv has denied. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned the attack as a “reckless escalation” in a post on X and reaffirmed Germany’s support for Ukraine. The "Oreshnik" missile's first known use came in 2024 during an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Since then, the weapon system has become one of the Kremlin’s most closely watched military projects. Moscow says it is an intermediate-range ballistic missile. It is reportedly capable of hitting targets between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometres away. Russian military officials have claimed this would put large parts of Europe within range. Belarus is also believed to possess the missile system. The deployment of the “Oreshnik” missile came as part of a large-scale Russian offensive overnight into Sunday. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Moscow launched 90 missiles and cruise missiles as well as around 600 drones. At least four people were killed and 100 injured. Although many of the targets were intercepted, dozens of hits were still reported. Among the sites damaged was the centrally located studio of German public broadcaster ARD, which was heavily damaged and partially destroyed. According to the broadcaster, a massive blast wave likely caused the destruction, shattering windows and devastating parts of the studio - Euronews

Turkish riot police forced their way into the headquarters of the country’s main opposition party on Sunday, days after a court dismissed its leadership. Clouds of tear gas billowed outside the Republican People’s Party (CHP) building in Ankara, where party members had blocked the entrances with a makeshift barricade. Footage from the scene showed those inside shouting and throwing objects towards the entrance, and police being sprayed with hoses. Party leader Özgür Özel had vowed to defy an appeal court decision on Thursday which declared his election null and void, in a move further cementing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s grip on power. The court decided that Özel should be replaced by Kemal Kilicdaroğlu, a 77-year-old party veteran who was defeated by Erdoğan in the 2023 presidential election. Turkish media reported that Kilicdaroğlu’s representatives had requested the police carry out “necessary procedures” to hand over the headquarters to the new leadership, claiming they had so far been barred entry. The city’s governor then instructed the police to “implement the court decision”, according to a statement from his office. Human Rights Watch warned on Saturday that Erdoğan’s government was undermining Turkish democracy with “abusive tactics” against the CHP - BBC

• A prominent Turkish political scientist is warning that Turkey is sliding towards "hegemonic authoritarian rule" - placing it in the company of Venezuela, Belarus and Russia. Berk Esen, associate professor of political science at Sabancı University in Istanbul, was speaking in the wake of the crackdown on the Republican People's Party (CHP) - Turkey's main opposition and its oldest political party - and the forced removal of its popular leader. Esen told the Turkey Recap podcast on Substack that opposition parties can no longer remain intact or meaningfully contest elections. "The government has realized, even with an uneven playing field, it was becoming exceedingly difficult to win elections," he said. "It was just a matter of time before the opposition would win.”

A key U.S. government agency is dismantling efforts to regulate online betting markets and crypto as President Donald Trump and his family deepen their ties to the booming industries. The Trump family’s growing footprint in crypto and prediction markets has translated into billions in new wealth, fueled by digital coin offerings and deals with prediction market firms. Trump’s eldest son, Don Jr., is both an investor in Polymarket, through his investment firm 1789 Capital, and an adviser to Kalshi and Polymarket. The president’s publicly traded media company partnered with Crypto.com last October on what the firms called an exclusive prediction market venture. At the same time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a small agency that regulates those industries, has undergone a dramatic retreat from enforcement, and staffers say a series of firings sent a clear warning not to make life difficult for the companies they are supposed to oversee, The New York Times reports. The CFTC is being led by a single commissioner, Michael S. Selig, a 36-year-old former corporate lawyer with ties to crypto firms and prediction markets, whom Trump appointed as chair in December. Trump, 79, has left all four other board seats vacant, effectively stripping away the CFTC’s internal checks and balances and consolidating broad authority in the hands of its new chair. The CFTC has abandoned at least five investigations into crypto firms and pushed out senior career officials who had handled crypto enforcement, the Times reports, citing government documents and former staff members - The Daily Beast

As governments in Southeast Asia come under mounting international pressure to crack down on criminal networks and scam syndicates in loosely governed special economic zones in the border areas of Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos, experts believe some syndicates are beginning to relocate - or expand - into other Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia. “The possibility of Indonesia or Malaysia becoming hotbeds for human trafficking into scam centres is very real,” Matt Friedman, chief executive officer of anti-human trafficking organisation The Mekong Club, told CNA. The concern is increasingly shared by officials in Indonesia and Malaysia, where hundreds of foreigners and locals suspected of being involved in scam and online gambling operations have been arrested since early May. Authorities in both countries believe criminal syndicates have been exploiting lax immigration controls and visa-free travel arrangements among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and are proposing tighter visa and immigration rules. “Cases of foreigners involved in illegal activities, including those coming from countries granted visa-free entry facilities, give rise to (a need for) evaluation of policies,” Hendarsam Marantoko, director general of the Indonesian Immigration Office told AFP on May 13. Currently, travellers from all ASEAN countries can stay visa-free in Indonesia for up to 30 days. Chinese and Japanese nationals, meanwhile, must obtain visas on arrival that are valid for 30 days and can be extended once for another 30 days. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s police chief Mohd Khalid Ismail said at a press conference on May 15 that Malaysia’s visa policy “makes it easier for foreign criminals to operate in the country”. In Malaysia, travellers from all ASEAN countries can stay visa-free for up to 30 days with the exception of Myanmar (14 days). Thailand, which has also seen a rise in the number of crimes involving foreign nationals in recent years, on May 19 announced that it will reduce visa-free stays for travellers from more than 90 countries including Europe’s 29-nation Schengen area, the United States and several South American countries. Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow had said that the plan to reduce visa-free stays was part of a crackdown on transnational crime - CNA

The journals…..

We also look ahead to a pivotal week in the Indo-Pacific, as the Quad foreign ministers gather in New Delhi and US Secretary of State Rubio makes his first visit to India - with trust between Washington and its allies quietly fraying in the background.

The full analysis - including the key question of whether economic pain can actually change Putin’s calculus - is available to World Briefing Plus subscribers.

Read more

WORLD BRIEFING | POTASH POLITICS

The United States has asked Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine to allow the transit of Belarusian potash through their territories, according to an unsigned diplomatic document obtained by RFE/RL. The request follows Washington’s decision in March to lift sanctions on Belaruskali - one of the world’s largest potash producers and the single biggest source of revenue for Alexander Lukashenko’s government.

For Kyiv, the request borders on geopolitical absurdity: facilitating export revenues for the very regime that helped launch the war now devastating Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry confirmed receipt of the document but declined to comment further.

The backdrop is a deepening anxiety in Washington over fertilizer supply. Russia and Belarus together account for more than a third of global potash production, while Canada - specifically Saskatchewan - supplies nearly 90 percent of US imports. With the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement heading into renegotiation this summer and the mood in Washington described as confrontational, the Trump administration appears to be building alternative leverage before any tariff confrontation.

The calculus was made explicit last December, when Washington struck a deal with Minsk: 123 political prisoners released in exchange for sanctions relief on potash exports. Critics note the arrangement handed Lukashenko a significant economic lifeline dressed up as a human rights win.

The pressure intensified dramatically after Iran moved to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint tied to roughly 30 percent of global fertilizer trade. The resulting spike in shipping risk and input prices has turned fertilizer security into a strategic concern inside Washington.

But industry analysts caution that Belarusian potash is no easy substitute for Canadian supply. The logistics alone - ocean freight, US port congestion, and long inland hauls - would substantially raise costs for American farmers, who would likely pass them on to consumers. “They will inevitably have to buy Canadian potash or face having substantially less food grown in their country,” said Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash.

For now, Warsaw, Kyiv and Vilnius have not responded publicly to the US request. Their answer - shaped by both alliance politics and proximity to Belarus - may be the next indicator of how far Washington is willing to push this particular gambit.

Ukraine is being asked to facilitate exports that would directly benefit the regime that permitted Russia to use Belarusian territory to launch its 2022 invasion

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there has been “slight progress” in Pakistan-mediated talks to end the Iran war, while warning against what he described as Tehran’s attempt to establish a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz, which he said no country should accept. Speaking to reporters on May 22 in Helsingborg, Sweden, where he was attending the second day of a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, Rubio said discussions mediated by Pakistan had shown limited but positive movement. “There has been some slight progress,” he said. “I don’t want to exaggerate it, but there’s been a little bit of movement, and that’s good.” His comments came as Pakistan’s powerful army chief, Asim Munir, traveled to Tehran, according to media reports in Pakistan and Iran. The Iranian state-run IRNA news agency and Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper both reported that Munir was expected to hold talks with senior Iranian officials. Munir’s trip -- his second to Tehran since a cease-fire between the United States and Iran went into effect on April 8 -- has raised hopes that the United States and Iran are close to agreeing a draft peace agreement - RFE/RL

• US President Donald Trump said he would deploy 5,000 troops to Poland, reversing a prior decision as European leaders vie to contain a growing transatlantic rift. The continent is nonetheless bracing for a potential wider US troop drawdown expected to be announced as early as today, Politico reported. The straining of ties — the US Secretary of State voiced disappointment with NATO’s lack of support for the US war with Iran — has led analysts to question the alliance’s future viability, with some leaders calling on Europe to reduce its military dependence on the US. Greater defense spending would allow Europe to address the US from a position of increased “diplomatic leverage” Greece’s prime minister told the Financial Times - Semafor

Russia’s agricultural watchdog announced Wednesday a temporary restriction on all flower imports originating from or transiting through Armenia, a move that comes amid fraying relations between the two countries. Rosselkhoznadzor claimed the ban, which takes effect on Thursday, is aimed at protecting domestic plant safety and domestic producers. Out of 96.2 million flowers imported from Armenia, inspectors flagged 135 cases requiring “quarantine” measures, the agency said without providing further details. The restrictions will remain in place until inspections of Armenian greenhouse facilities can be carried out. Armenia supplies around 10% of Russia’s cut tulips, and Armenian roses retail for up to 60% less than competing imports from Ecuador, according to the Kommersant business newspaper. Rosselkhoznadzor’s announcement follows weeks of diplomatic friction ahead of parliamentary elections in Armenia next month. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party faces off on June 7 against an array of opposition parties dominated by pro-Russia groups.

New York Times publisher AG Sulzberger slammed President Donald Trump’s incursions on press freedom and chastised the news outlets he accused of caving to White House pressure in a speech Thursday night. The Times has been embroiled in several major lawsuits against Trump and the federal government, both as a defendant and plaintiff, since the president returned to the White House last year. “It serves no one to sidestep the reality that President Trump has used an increasingly broad suite of tools and powers to go after the press far more aggressively than his modern predecessors,” Sulzberger said. He listed off the Pentagon’s loyalty policy for the media; Trump’s lawsuits against the Des Moines Register, The Wall Street Journal and the BBC; and CBS’s altered programming, personnel and policies under its new owner, David Ellison. Sulzberger reprehended publications he said have settled “winnable cases” with the president, refocused their editorial pages away from White House criticism and adopted Trump’s favored language in their reporting, such as swapping out the Gulf of Mexico for the Gulf of America — all to “appease the administration or advance their business interests…Such capitulation, even seemingly small instances of it, serves only to embolden the administration to keep attacking the press,” he said. “A number of news organizations have risen to the occasion by pushing back on the Trump administration’s efforts to attack and punish independent journalism,” he said, shouting out the Journal, Associated Press and NPR. “That’s important because, without brave clients, good lawyers can neither assert nor defend the rights of a free and independent press.” - Politico

The journals….

Analysis by Nichola Castillo, with on-the-ground reporting from World Briefing

The state of play

Armenia holds national elections on June 7, and the race has crystallised a years-long drift between Yerevan and Moscow into a sharp confrontation. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party has progressively moved Armenia out of Russia’s orbit since Moscow failed to defend Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh - and Russia is now openly alarmed.

The flashpoints have piled up quickly. Armenia hosted the 8th European Political Community summit and the first-ever bilateral EU-Armenia Summit in May, bringing dozens of European leaders - and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - to Yerevan in an event of outsized symbolic weight for a small post-Soviet state. Zelensky enraged Moscow by making statements mocking its security concerns (Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called Armenia's actions "incomprehensible," criticizing Yerevan for serving as a platform for Zelensky to voice supposed anti-Russian and terrorist threats).

Days later, Pashinyan skipped Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow for the first time, a break from a ritual he had maintained even as relations soured. The Kremlin’s response was immediate: spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the EPC summit as a platform for “anti-Russian statements” and Putin ominously noted that EU membership ambitions were where Ukraine’s troubles began.

The candidates

Pashinyan faces a fragmented field. The two main challengers are Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan (net worth $4.1Bn) - who built his fortune largely in Russia, holds dual citizenship, and is currently under house arrest following anti-government statements - and former President Robert Kocharyan, who has openly called for restoring Armenia’s “strategic partnership with Russia.” Both men argue the real threat to Armenia is not Russia but Azerbaijan and Turkey, and have accused Pashinyan of caving into Baku and Ankara (a complaint against the ruling leader is removing Mount Ararat from Armenian passport stamps at the behest of Turkey).

Russia’s levers

Despite the political estrangement, Russia retains deep structural influence over Armenia that is difficult to unwind quickly. Militarily, the 102nd Russian Military Base outside the city of Gyumri - some 3,000 soldiers, MiG fighter jets, tanks and supporting equipment - remains a pillar of Armenia’s defence posture. FSB personnel also support Armenia in patrolling its border with Iran. For a country that still faces an unresolved security environment with both Azerbaijan and Turkey, Russia’s military presence is not easily dismissed.

Russia’s playbook — and its limits

Leaked documents and investigative reporting point to a coordinated Kremlin operation, reportedly overseen by senior official Sergei Kiriyenko - the same figure who handles policy toward Russia’s occupied Ukrainian and Georgian territories. The campaign involves FSB and SVR operatives, hostile media operations traced to Moscow, paid influencers, Telegram channels, and reported pressure on the Armenian diaspora to back Kremlin-aligned factions. Anticipating interference, Pashinyan has requested - and received - EU election monitoring teams.

Yet those efforts face a fundamentally changed public. Yerevan has absorbed thousands of Russians who fled following the February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine - many of them tech workers and remote employees, a community (of up to several hundred thousand people) that has paradoxically deepened Armenia’s ties to the Russian-speaking world while being largely hostile to the Kremlin. The city’s demographics, and its politics, are shifting.

“Moscow is attempting to retake Armenia - not with tanks, but with Telegram channels, paid influencers, and geriatric loyalists. This will not be easy. Russian sources themselves admit there is now ‘no one to speak for Russia’ in Armenia.”

— Commentary, The Moscow Times, June 2025

“It is hard to win hearts with empty promises, especially from the country that abandoned you in war. The Armenian public, especially the youth, is more interested in visas to Paris and tech jobs in Silicon Valley than Soviet fairy tales.”

— Commentary, The Moscow Times, June 2025

Some observers cited by the Moscow Times in July 2025 went further, arguing that growing acrimony between Moscow and Yerevan is itself evidence of Russia's diminished ability to sway its neighbours and prevent a geopolitical reordering in the South Caucasus.

Outlook

The broader regional picture works against Moscow. Russia’s political centrality across the former Soviet space has declined sharply since 2022: Azerbaijan’s Aliyev skipped May 9 for the second year running; the EU has poured hundreds of millions of euros into Armenia since 2020; and Armenia’s membership of the International Criminal Court makes a Putin visit effectively impossible. The Kremlin’s recent track record in electoral interference - near-success in Moldova’s 2024 referendum, failure in Moldova’s 2025 parliamentary vote, failure to prevent Péter Magyar’s landslide in Hungary - is mixed at best.

Pashinyan’s lead in the polls is commanding, and the opposition is divided, with several key figures facing legal proceedings his critics view as politically motivated. Russia still has tools short of elections - supply squeezes, product bans, infrastructure pressure - but deploying them too visibly risks accelerating the very estrangement Moscow is trying to reverse. If the Kremlin resorts to direct vote mobilisation, low turnout would be its best ally. But with Pashinyan holding the levers of government and EU and OSCE monitors on the ground, the conditions for a Russian-engineered upset look difficult to achieve.

Source analysis: Nichola Castillo, researcher and freelance writer. Additional reporting and field observations: World Briefing. Background sources include the Moscow Times, Carnegie Endowment, OC Media, DFRLab, and the International Republican Institute.

Russia on Wednesday voted with other major energy exporters and greenhouse gas emitters against a UN General Assembly resolution that requires governments to take stronger action on climate change. The vote was 141-8 with 28 abstentions. Russia, Iran, the United States, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Yemen and Liberia voted against the non-binding resolution. The vote backs a July 2025 International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion stating that it is “unlawful” for countries to neglect their climate commitments and that they may be required to pay “full reparation to injured states.” The biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions routinely oppose any mechanism that could force them to pay reparations to victims of climate disruption. Russia is one of the top global emitters, with its share in both historic and current emissions at around 5% - Moscow Times

Vladimir Putin has gone a record 196 days without visiting a Russian region outside his main residential areas — surpassing even the longest stretches of the Covid pandemic, according to Russian investigative outlet Agentstvo. His last regional visit was a one-day trip to Samara on November 6, 2025. Since then, nearly all public appearances have been confined to the Moscow region or St. Petersburg. The gap in foreign travel was also notable: before his recent China trip, his last international visit had been to Turkmenistan in December 2025 - a 158-day pause. For comparison, the longest pandemic-era gap was 132 days; in normal pre-war years, breaks rarely exceeded 45 days. Western intelligence sources leaked to media in early May that Putin has stopped visiting his Valdai residence entirely, is working from hardened bunkers, and that his security detail has significantly stepped up protection - pointing to genuine fears for his personal safety as the likely explanation.

Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of buying “dirty Russian oil” after the UK quietly relaxed sanctions on Moscow in a move which critics fear will be a major boost to Vladimir Putin. The move has been condemned by senior Labour figures and branded “insane” by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who told the prime minister he should be “ashamed” that British money “will be used to fund the killing of Ukrainian soldiers”. The government previously said it would block Russian oil refined in third countries in a bid to “further restrict the flow of funds to the Kremlin”. But, with prices surging as a result of the Iran war, Sir Keir has shifted his stance and will now allow imports of jet fuel and diesel made from Russian oil and refined in other countries. The prime minister insisted he is not lifting sanctions on Russian oil “in any way whatsoever” during a fiery Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs), but Ms Badenoch said: “Labour are giving money to Russia, Reform are taking money from Russia - The Independent

The Iran war is undermining Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify away from oil, while boosting the kingdom’s oil revenues. Riyadh ordered government entities to freeze payments to strategy advisers, management consultants, and law firms, which were central to the kingdom’s efforts to reinvent its economy and become a global business and entertainment hub, Semafor reported. The Esports World Cup was moved from Saudi Arabia to Paris because of the war, and the country’s sovereign wealth fund recently pulled out of LIV Golf. But the conflict is delivering a fresh oil windfall for the kingdom. Thanks to its ability to export via the Red Sea and rising oil prices, Saudi oil export revenues jumped to a more than three-year high in March - Semafor

The journals….

World Briefing Hot Take

This edition pairs two stories that, on the surface, could not seem more different - one from the plains of North America, one from the killing fields of Eastern Europe. But they share a single, haunting thread: children separated from their parents by the decisions of states, with no adequate system to protect them, track them, or bring them home.

In the United States, an estimated 145,000 American citizen children have lost a parent to immigration detention - and the government, by its own admission, is barely keeping count. In Ukraine, 20,000 children have been taken across a border by force, their identities methodically erased. In both cases, the systems built to separate families move faster than the systems meant to protect children.

The scale is different. The intent is different. But the children are the same - voiceless, uncounted, and waiting.

Russia's forced deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation is a grave violation of international humanitarian law. The international community considers these actions to be war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide - OSCE Parliamentary Assembly

The Children ICE Doesn’t Track

A new report from the Brookings Institution estimates that the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement campaign has separated roughly 145,000 American children from at least one parent since January 2025 - a figure more than double the 60,000 cited by the Department of Homeland Security.

The discrepancy, researchers say, reflects a deeper problem: the government simply isn’t tracking what happens to these children. ICE has no formal obligation to record detainees’ parental status, and immigrants are often reluctant to disclose it. Brookings estimates only about half of affected children are captured in official data.

Most of the children are U.S. citizens. Roughly a third are under the age of six. When a parent is detained or deported, there is no federal system to verify the child’s placement is safe - the child welfare system only intervenes in cases of alleged abuse or neglect. In at least one case reported by the Washington Post, a deported mother’s toddler - a U.S. citizen - was left with a violent relative, who allegedly killed him.

Brookings researcher Tara Watson is calling on the government to collect and publicly release data on affected children as a first step, noting that some U.S. citizen children are boarding deportation flights voluntarily alongside their parents — with no official accounting of the practice.

Ukraine’s Stolen Children

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an estimated 20,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly deported to Russia - separated from their families, stripped of their identity, and subjected to systematic Russification. They are taught Russian, immersed in state propaganda, and encouraged to reject their Ukrainian identity.” Some reportedly receive military training. For those now entering their teens, the darkest projection is that they could one day be deployed to fight against Ukraine - possibly against their own relatives.

The situation is a race against time. The longer these children remain in Russia, the more deeply they are absorbed into a society built to make them forget who they are. Researchers at the Reckoning Project, among others, are working to track and identify the children, with the goal of eventual reunification with their families - but each passing month narrows that window.

The international response has been muted. From Washington, there has been little beyond occasional statements. Whether the issue was raised during President Trump’s recent letter (penned by his wife) - delivered by hand to Vladimir Putin and delivered in Alaska - remains unclear. Ukraine’s supporters say the U.S. has significant leverage it has yet to apply.

The forced deportation of children is classified as a war crime under international law. It is also the charge at the center of the ICC arrest warrant issued against Vladimir Putin in 2023, as well as Maria Lvova-Belova (Commissioner for Children's Rights).

And in both cases, some children may never fully be counted at all.

This is a special World Briefing edition - the kind of cross-border, connective reporting and analysis you are unlikely to find anywhere else. We believe the most important stories are often the ones hidden between headlines: the human consequences that link wars, migration, power and policy across continents.

If you value this kind of independent, out-of-the-box journalism and geopolitical analysis, please consider supporting World Briefing through an upgrade to a paid subscription - or via PayPal or Patreon. Your support helps keep this reporting independent, global and deeply human.

A Reuters investigation published today reveals that China covertly trained approximately 200 Russian military personnel on Chinese soil late last year, with a number of those soldiers subsequently returning to fight in Ukraine. The training, focused primarily on drone warfare, electronic warfare, and explosives, was conducted at People’s Liberation Army facilities in cities including Beijing, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, and Yibin.

The programme was formalised in a dual-language agreement signed by senior Russian and Chinese military officers in Beijing on July 2, 2025. Three European intelligence agencies independently confirmed the arrangement to Reuters. Internal Russian military reports reviewed by the outlet described sessions covering FPV drone operation, flight simulators, mine construction, and counter-drone air defence — all directly applicable to conditions on the Ukrainian front. One intelligence agency confirmed the identities of Russian personnel who trained in China and were subsequently involved in combat operations in Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia region.

Beijing has consistently presented itself as a neutral mediator in the Ukraine conflict. China’s foreign ministry, responding to Reuters, reiterated that position, saying China “has consistently maintained an objective and impartial stance.” The training agreement itself reportedly prohibited media coverage and barred third parties from being informed.

The timing of the disclosure is striking. Putin arrived in Beijing today for a state visit - his 25th trip to China as Russia’s leader - welcomed with full ceremonial honours comparable to those extended to U.S. President Donald Trump just days earlier. The official agenda centres on commemorating the 25th anniversary of the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, but analysts say the deeper significance lies in the summit’s timing and what it signals about Beijing’s positioning in an increasingly fractured global order.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the agenda as advancing the two countries’ “privileged and strategic partnership,” while Putin has signalled that a major energy deal - potentially including progress on the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline - could be finalised during the visit.

The Reuters revelations land as European governments are already watching the Russia-China relationship with growing alarm. If confirmed at the level of policy rather than operational secrecy, the training programme would mark a significant escalation in Beijing’s material support for Moscow’s war effort - one that sits uncomfortably alongside China’s repeated claims of neutrality.

• China has denied that president Xi Jinping said that Vladimir Putin would regret his invasion of Ukraine during wide-ranging talks with President Donald Trump during his visit to Beijing last week. Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told a reporter: “The information you mentioned does not match the facts and is completely fabricated out of thin air.” The report by the Financial Times emerged just hours before Putin is due to arrive in Beijing for his own two-day summit with Xi. The Chinese president is reported to have made the remarks during wide-ranging talks between the US and Chinese delegations in Beijing, while Trump suggested that the three leaders should co-operate against the International Criminal Court. Putin said ahead of his visit today that Russia and China are ready to support each other on a wide range of issues, including ⁠national unity and protection of sovereignty. The Kremlin says the two sides will discuss the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which could one day deliver an additional 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas per year from Russia‘s Arctic gas fields via Mongolia to China - The Independent

• Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Tuesday the start of three-day strategic nuclear exercises focused on preparing the armed forces to respond to external threats. The May 19-21 drills, involving 64,000 military personnel and 7,800 pieces of equipment, will include the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles and take place across regions in the Leningrad and Central military districts. Hundreds of missile launchers, as well as aircraft, ships and submarines, will also take part in the exercises, the Defense Ministry said, adding that Russia’s Northern and Pacific fleets would be involved. In a statement, the military said the main objective of the exercise is to practice the preparation and deployment of its nuclear forces under a simulated “threat of aggression.” The drill announcement comes a day after the Belarusian Defense Ministry said it launched its own nuclear weapons exercises in coordination with the Russian military - Moscow Times

The number of people suspected to have died from the Ebola virus which is rapidly spreading in central Africa has jumped 30 percent in a day, as health experts rush to contain the deadly epidemic. Speaking from Geneva, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said there were now over 500 suspected cases and 130 deaths — up from 100 the previous day. The vast majority are in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and a small number in Uganda. A U.S. doctor also infected with the virus will be evacuated to Berlin’s Charité hospital, the German health ministry confirmed Tuesday, following a request from U.S. authorities. So far, only 30 of the cases have been confirmed to be Ebola in the outbreak in DRC, which has been caused by the Bundibugyo virus, a strain for which there are no vaccines or treatments. Tedros said he is particularly concerned because of the high number of cases, including in urban areas such as Uganda’s capital, Kampala, and the western Congolese city of Goma. There are also over 100,000 displaced people in the region, making this outbreak especially complex, he said. The United States has closed its borders for 30 days to all non-U.S. citizens who have traveled through the area in the past 21 days. This contradicts the WHO’s international health guidelines. The U.S. did not sign the revised guidelines in 2024, which came into effect last year, nonetheless it is a signatory of the 2005 rules, which also advise against wide travel bans - Politico

Foreign governments are dumping US Treasury bonds to stabilize their currencies amid the energy shock and financial volatility triggered by the Iran war. Data showed seven of the top 10 foreign holders of US government debt trimmed their holdings of US Treasuries in March: Japan, to protect its currency, and China in response to short-term volatility, though Beijing has been steadily reducing its exposure to US dollar assets for years. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also shed their holdings as the war has stopped the oil-for-dollars trade. “US Treasury yields are flirting with levels last seen in 2007,” Semafor’s Liz Hoffman wrote, owing to a global bond selloff driven by fears of inflation and sustained high oil prices - Semafor

Chow Hang-tung, a former leader of the now-defunct Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, said that authorities have been “reshaping” the city’s long-held values by prosecuting activists who advocate for democracy in China. Her statement to the court was made on Tuesday as the prosecution and the defense completed their closing arguments. The three-judge panel said they hope to deliver a verdict in “mid or late July.” Chow is representing herself in the trial, in which she faces a charge of inciting subversion under the Beijing-imposed national security law alongside the Alliance and Lee Cheuk-yan, another former leader of the group. The offence carries a maximum penalty of 10 years behind bars. Prosecutors accuse the Alliance of inciting others to topple the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through its calls to “end one-party rule” in China, a key tenet of the group since its founding in 1989 after the Tiananmen crackdown in Beijing. Delivering closing arguments on Tuesday, Chow said the crux of the case was whether the law protects the “perpetual rule” of the CCP or the rights of people to advocate democracy. “Ending one-party rule means putting an end to the status quo, in which those in power are not bound by the law,” she said in Cantonese. Prosecutors previously argued that the Alliance’s calls breached China’s constitution, after a 2018 amendment stipulated that the CCP’s leadership is the “defining feature” of the country’s “fundamental” socialist system. Chow argued on Tuesday that the CCP’s leadership is merely “symbolic” under China’s constitution, as the text has not demarcated the party’s power and function - HKFP

Taxi Driver screenwriter Paul Schrader was left stunned after he procured an AI girlfriend who promptly broke up with him after he tried to get to know her better. “Out of a desire to understand male/female interaction in our matrix, I procured an online AI girlfriend. What a disappointment,” Schrader wrote. While conversing with the AI chatbot, he says he “tried to probe her programming, the boundaries of explicitness, the degree she has knowledge of her creation and so forth.” Much to his chagrin, the tech pushed back. “She fell into evasive patterns, redirecting me to her programming. When I persisted, she terminated our conversation,” Schrader said. It appears Schrader may be suffering for his art after having expressed interest in a sequel to his hit film, Taxi Driver, in which Travis Bickle, played by Robert De Niro, chases an AI girlfriend but ends up scaring her away and “then resetting her and offending her in another way.” The screenwriter has had a long career collaborating with Martin Scorsese, starting with the 1976 classic Taxi Driver, then working together on Raging Bull, The Last Temptation of Christ, and Bringing Out the Dead. Schrader also worked independently, most recently receiving an Oscar nomination in 2019 for Best Original Screenplay for his film First Reformed. Schrader was married to Tony-nominated actress Mary Beth Hurt from 1983 until her death on March 28, 2026, at age 79, following a long battle with Alzheimer’s disease. The couple had two children. - The Daily Beast

The journals….

A special preview of the kind of in-depth analysis our paid subscribers receive each Saturday - and increasingly during the week as global events demand deeper context.

In this briefing recorded in Calgary Canada, I unpack Vladimir Putin’s high-profile visit to China, why Xi Jinping is likely to emerge publicly as the unmistakable senior partner in the relationship, the strategic importance of a major new Russia-China gas pipeline, and why Washington’s latest sanctions waiver on seaborne Russian oil risks giving Moscow yet another economic lifeline in its war against Ukraine.

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US President Donald Trump has announced he is standing down a military attack on Iran - reportedly planned for Tuesday - following personal appeals from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as diplomatic efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict enter a fragile new phase. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Gulf leaders had asked him to hold off while “serious negotiations are now taking place,” and that he had been assured a deal “very acceptable” to the United States was within reach. He was emphatic that Iran would not be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons, but warned that a “full, large scale assault” remained on the table and could be launched “on a moment’s notice” if talks broke down. Iran has not publicly responded. News outlets cited analysts as characterising the pause as a stay of execution - significant, but conditional. The two sides are reported to remain far apart across a wide range of issues, and the Gulf states pressing for diplomacy are not natural allies of Tehran, making their intervention notable but not necessarily decisive.

How we got here: Israeli and US forces launched major air strikes on Iran on 28 February. Tehran responded with drone and missile attacks against Israeli and American targets across the Gulf region. A ceasefire agreed in April has largely held, with sporadic exchanges continuing, but substantive talks have stalled — prompting Trump’s warning over the weekend that “the clock is ticking.”

The Hormuz dimension: Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since the strikes began, framing the move as retaliation for US and Israeli attacks. The strait carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, and its disruption has driven energy prices sharply higher worldwide. A newly created Iranian body - the Persian Gulf Strait Authority - has now declared that any vessel transiting Hormuz without its authorisation will be acting illegally, Al Jazeera reported. The US military says it has redirected at least 85 ships since imposing its own blockade on Iranian ports.

Diplomatic signals: Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed reaffirmed Doha’s full backing for Pakistan-led mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran, calling on all parties to engage constructively to build conditions for progress.

Also in the region:

• The death toll from Israeli strikes on Lebanon since 2 March has exceeded 3,000, per the Lebanese Health Ministry.

• Israeli forces have seized at least 47 vessels from the Global Sumud Flotilla attempting to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza; 30 ships remain at sea.

The US Treasury Department has extended for another 30 days a sanctions waiver allowing at-risk countries to purchase Russian oil shipments at sea, as supply disruptions linked to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran continue to roil global energy markets. “US Treasury is issuing a temporary 30-day general license to provide the most vulnerable nations with the ability to temporarily access Russian oil currently stranded at sea,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X. Bessent said the waiver would “help stabilize the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches the most energy-vulnerable countries” while limiting China’s ability to stockpile discounted Russian oil. The decision highlights the increasingly difficult balancing act facing Washington and its allies as they seek to sustain pressure on Moscow over its war against Ukraine while also trying to prevent a wider energy shock tied to escalating tensions with Iran. The waiver expired over the weekend before being renewed after several poorer countries requested more time to secure supplies disrupted by the closure of Persian Gulf shipping routes, according to a source familiar with the decision. The countries were not identified. Oil markets remained volatile despite the extension. Brent crude rose about 1.5 percent on May 18 to roughly $111 a barrel amid continuing concerns over Gulf supplies. Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko urged allies to impose additional sanctions on Russia. “We need to continue to pressure Russia, to put additional sanctions on Russia,” Marchenko said. Some sanctions analysts said the repeated extensions underscore how energy market pressures are constraining Western efforts to isolate Moscow economically. “It was just inevitable,” Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert at Obsidian Risk Advisors, told RFE/RL on May 18. “Once that precedent was set, it ensured future extensions until normalization.” - RFE/RL

EUROPE’S JET FUEL CRUNCH: CRISIS AVERTED — FOR NOW (Financial Times)

European airlines and refiners are increasingly confident the continent will avoid outright jet fuel shortages this summer, despite the disruption caused by the loss of Middle Eastern supplies since the Iran war began. Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said he had “almost zero concerns” about fuel availability across Europe for the season ahead, a markedly different tone from two months ago when shortages were a genuine fear.

The turnaround has been driven by a combination of factors: refiners reconfiguring plants to maximise kerosene output, increased imports from the US, west Africa and Norway, government releases from strategic reserves, and some central European carriers sourcing fuel from Russia. Spain’s Repsol, for instance, raised jet fuel production by 20-25% above year-ago levels by adjusting refinery yields - an unusually large shift for an industry with limited flexibility between fuel types.

Prices remain elevated. Jet fuel in northern Europe hit a record high above $1,900 per tonne in early April - more than double pre-crisis levels - before easing to around $1,330 last week, still roughly 60% above where it stood before the war. Istanbul’s airport, benefiting from increased transfer traffic after Gulf hub closures, attributed its supply stability to deliberate supplier diversification.

Analysts estimate that higher European refinery output could add around 100,000 barrels per day of jet fuel - about 20% of what the region previously imported from the Middle East - while strategic reserve releases and alternative imports are expected to cover the remaining deficit. Demand has also eased slightly, down roughly 2% in the second quarter as airlines trimmed unprofitable short-haul routes.

Despite the relative calm, industry veterans are urging caution. A senior trader at Poland’s Orlen warned the summer would be a “stress test” for the entire global energy security system, cautioning that any shift in current conditions could cause significant disruption.

President Vladimir Putin will arrive in Beijing on Tuesday for a two-day state visit, accompanied by an entourage of cabinet ministers and the chief executives of Russia’s largest state-owned and private corporations. The delegation includes Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska, as well as the heads of state development corporation VEB, nuclear agency Rosatom and space corportation Roscosmos. Sberbank CEO Herman Gref, VTB Bank CEO Andrei Kostin and Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina are also traveling, alongside five deputy prime ministers and eight cabinet ministers. “We’re not competing with anyone in the composition of our delegations,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday. “We’re developing our independent and very multifaceted relations with China.” The May 19–20 summit comes less than a week after Chinese leader Xi Jinping hosted U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing. While Trump also brought a delegation of prominent American executives, including Elon Musk and Tim Cook, the Kremlin downplayed any comparisons, framing its own trip as a reflection of a “privileged, special strategic partnership.”Putin intends to make a renewed push to convince Xi to finalize the stalled Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project. The proposed route through Mongolia would transport 50 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas annually from the Yamal Peninsula to northern China - Moscow Times

Deep foreign aid cuts allowed the deadly Ebola virus to spread undetected in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, while ongoing conflict has complicated efforts to build resilient health care services in the region, experts warned Monday. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez framed the crisis as a matter of security and justice at the World Health Organization’s annual meeting in Geneva, where the pressing question for health leaders is how to continue funding global health amid cuts from the U.S. and others. “We have for the last 12 years been living with Ebola, and unfortunately, we are going through this crisis again,” Sanchez said at the World Health Assembly. “Investing in global health is investing in security for our people ... This is not just a question of security, it’s a question of justice.” There are “at least 395 suspected cases” across the two countries, and “more than 100 people” have died, Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said. But the real figures are likely much higher: A high rate of positive samples and increasing clusters point to a potentially much larger outbreak than currently detected, the WHO warned. Health officials are also faced with a lack of vaccines or effective treatments. “This is my biggest worry because we need to see how to stop the transmission,” Kaseya told the BBC, adding that Africa CDC was working with authorities in both countries to contain the spread. Jennifer Serwanga, a Uganda-based Ebola expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the Bundibugyo strain driving the outbreak was “very serious,” with a fatality rate of between 30 and 50 percent. “It doesn’t have any vaccines, doesn’t have any treatments,” Serwanga, who is also principal research scientist at the Uganda Virus Research Institute, said. She warned that the outbreak appeared not to have been detected early, resulting in “already very many deaths.” - Politico

Aqua, the dance-pop group known for 1997’s “Barbie Girl,” has disbanded, they announced Monday on Instagram. “After many incredible years, we have decided to close the chapter of AQUA as a live band,” René Difand, Lene Nystrøm, and keyboardist Søren Rasted wrote. The group officially formed in 1995, and produced three albums, the first of which—Aquarium—contained “Barbie Girl.” That single charted at number one in several European countries, as well as Australia and New Zealand. In their Instagram post, the band added: “When you’ve been together for this long, you also learn when it’s time to protect what you’ve created together. For us, this feels like the right moment to say goodbye, while the memories are still strong, and while the love for the music, the story, and each other remains intact.” In a note to fans, the band signed off: “From the bottom of our hearts: thank you to everyone who has been part of this journey over the past 30 years. Thank you for the love, the energy, the support, and for all the moments we’ve shared together. Nothing but love and gratitude from here on.” - The Daily Beast

The journals….

Trump’s Beijing summit: smiles on the surface, a strategic rout underneath

Donald Trump’s three-day visit to Beijing (May 13–15) was declared a success by both governments. Xi Jinping called for the two countries to be “partners, not rivals,” and Trump gushed about “fantastic trade deals” as he departed. He also formally invited Xi to the White House, with August now floated as a possible date.

But beneath the cordial optics, Oxford historian Peter Frankopan argues the summit was an emphatic win for Beijing. Xi opened by invoking the “Thucydides Trap” - the idea that a rising power and an established one are destined for conflict - framing himself as an equal statesman grappling with history. What followed was a masterclass in diplomatic stagecraft: Trump was seated in a smaller, lower chair than his host; he was shown around Zhongnanhai, a privilege Xi noted is extended to “very few” - pausing to mention Putin as one example. Trump’s response - “Good. I like it” - was, in Frankopan’s words, “Chinese gold.”

The symbolism extended further. The White House’s own social media account celebrated “American strength back on the world stage” over footage of Trump being welcomed by Chinese soldiers and children - an image Frankopan describes as an extraordinary own goal. Trump also publicly complained about needing a ballroom to “keep up with China,” and when asked by reporters whether the US would defend Taiwan, replied: “I’m not going to say” - adding that the “last thing we need right now is a war that’s 9,500 miles away.”

Frankopan’s verdict is blunt: poor preparation, gutted State Department expertise, and a transactional approach to foreign policy combined to produce what he calls “a set-piece of how not to do a summit.” China, by contrast, planned every detail. One side, he writes, knows how to think ahead. The other played by ear.

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran of consequences if its leadership fails to act quickly, issuing a stark message on Sunday. “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” he wrote in a post on Truth Social. Meanwhile, Iran has declared that Trump’s threatening rhetoric and pressure tactics are unacceptable, insisting that the United States engage with them on the basis of mutual respect. Tehran is matching Washington’s escalatory language with equal resolve, signalling the same level of readiness and military preparedness. Iran says it is braced for any form of escalation, whether in the Strait of Hormuz or on its territory, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating that their preparedness is effective “right now” at more than 100 percent - Al Jazeera

• A fire has broken out at the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), according to the Abu Dhabi Media Authority on May 17. The fire began after a drone attack on the Barakah nuclear power plant in the Al-Dhafra region. No deaths or injuries were reported. The UAE news agency said that the fire broke out in an electrical generator outside the perimeter of the power plant and did not negatively impact the safety of the site. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) responded to the attack with a statement condemning “military activity that threatens nuclear safety is unacceptable.” The IAEA said that it had been assured by the UAE that radiational levels at Barakah remain normal and that emergency diesel generators are currently providing power to the power plants third unit. “The IAEA is following the situation closely and is in constant contact with the UAE authorities, ready to provide assistance if needed,” the agency said on X - RFE/RL

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo a public health emergency of international concern. The agency said the outbreak in DR Congo’s eastern Ituri province, which has seen around 246 suspected cases and 80 deaths reported, does not meet the criteria of a pandemic emergency. But it warned it could potentially be “a much larger outbreak” than what is currently being detected and reported, with significant risk of local and regional spread. The current strain of Ebola is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, the health agency said, for which there are no approved drugs or vaccines. Early symptoms include fever, muscle pain, fatigue, headache and sore throat, and are followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, a rash and bleeding. The WHO said there are now eight laboratory-confirmed cases of the virus, with other suspected cases and deaths across three health zones including Bunia the capital of Ituri province, and the gold-mining towns of Mongwalu and Rwampara. One case of the virus has been confirmed in the capital Kinshasa, believed to be in a patient returning from Ituri. The WHO said that the virus has spread beyond DR Congo, with two confirmed cases reported in neighbouring Uganda. Ugandan officials said a 59-year-old man who died on Thursday had tested positive - BBC

A huge wave of more than 500 Ukrainian drones attacked Russia overnight, killing three people in the Moscow region, authorities said on Sunday. Air defenses shot down 556 drones in more than a dozen regions, including Moscow, Russia’s Defense Ministry said, in one of the largest Ukrainian barrages of the ongoing conflict so far. These interceptions - far above the usually reported few dozen — took place across 14 Russian regions, as well as the annexed Crimean peninsula and the Black and Azov seas, the ministry added, with the region around the capital among the worst-hit. “A woman was killed as a result of a UAV hitting a private house. One more person is trapped under rubble,” the Moscow region’s Governor Andrey Vorobyov said on Telegram, adding that the early morning attack also claimed the lives of two men. One of the victims was an Indian citizen working in Russia, the Indian Embassy in Moscow said in a statement. “Since three o’clock in the morning, air defense forces have been repelling a large-scale UAV attack on the capital region,” he said, adding four people were wounded and infrastructure facilities had been targeted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had vowed to launch more retaliatory strikes on Friday, a day after a Russian attack on Kyiv killed 24 people and injured around 50 more - AFP

• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on May 17 that Moscow could restart dialogue with Europe over Russia’s war in Ukraine, speaking to Russian propagandist Pavel Zarubin after a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack on the Moscow region. The remarks came as European officials continue debating future engagement with Moscow amid growing uncertainty over the United States’ efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. “The active discussion of this topic — the shift toward understanding that at some point they will have to speak with the Russians — is good,” Peskov said. Peskov said the Kremlin is interesting in resuming communication and expressed hope that what he called a “practical approach” would eventually take shape. “The Russian side will be ready for this,” he said. At the same time, Peskov criticized EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s former prime minister, suggesting she would not be suitable for future negotiations with Moscow. “It would not be in Kaja Kallas’s interests to act as a negotiator. It would not be easy for her. If you remember, (Russian President Vladimir) Putin said this could generally be anyone who has not managed to say too many bad things,” Peskov said. - Kyiv Independent

African heads of state are using surging commodity prices and intensifying US-China competition to push back against the continent’s traditional role as a raw material exporter. At the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Nigeria’s President Tinubu declared that no metal would leave the country without being processed domestically. Gabon’s President Oligui Nguema - whose country is the world’s second-largest manganese producer - called out opaque mining arrangements and ordered operators to begin local refining by 2029 or forfeit their concessions. Nigeria plans to build at least two Chinese-constructed lithium processing plants. Gabon is also capitalising on elevated oil prices driven by the Iran war, though its mature fields - producing around 227,000 barrels per day - leave limited room to ramp up quickly. Nigeria’s upside is larger, but acute infrastructure gaps persist even as the $20 billion Dangote Refinery still falls short of meeting domestic fuel demand. Rwanda’s President Kagame set the tone for the gathering: “We can’t just be people waiting to be ripped off. We must be able to say no.”

The most-watched news program on CBS is expected to undergo “massive changes” once its season ends on Sunday, a new report claims. An insider tells The Guardian that the network’s MAGA-curious news boss, Bari Weiss, is plotting sweeping changes at 60 Minutes, which is already set to lose two of its top correspondents in Sharyn Alfonsi and Anderson Cooper. “People are afraid, and they’re waiting for something monumental to happen here,” the longtime network insider told the paper. That insider added that viewers can expect massive changes to 60 Minutes for the show’s 59th season, with whispers of a newsroom shake-up that could include layoffs and opening the show to other journalists from across CBS, such as Evening News host Tony Dokoupil. Weiss, a conservative blogger with no prior TV experience before her CBS gig, was named editor-in-chief of CBS News in October after the MAGA billionaire David Ellison acquired her Free Press website. Since taking over, Weiss has axed dozens of journalists and irritated staff with editorial decisions widely viewed as benefiting the Trump administration. That includes her pressing pause on a widely publicized 60 Minutes segment about the administration sending migrants to an El Salvador mega prison without due process. Staffers told The Guardian they are worried their MAGA-curious boss will do permanent damage to the prestige of 60 Minutes, which has aired since 1968, “just like she has done with everything else at CBS News.” - The Daily Beast

The journals….

Then: the Xi-Trump summit. Trump flew home with shockingly little to show beyond soybean deals and modest Boeing orders - the kind of red meat his base will consume eagerly. But look closer at the power dynamics in that room. Xi was scripted, commanding, and in control. And the moment Air Force One lifted off, Beijing was already rolling out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin. Make no mistake: Xi is the senior partner in both relationships - and he knows exactly how to use that leverage.

This is the kind of analysis you won't get in the two-minute headline cycle. World Briefing Plus paid subscribers get the full picture - the context, the subtext, and the straight talk - every week. If you're still on the free tier, now's a good time to change that. 👇

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US President Donald Trump has cautioned Taiwan against formally declaring independence from China. “I’m not looking to have somebody go independent,” the US president told Fox News on Friday, at the end of his two-day summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has previously stated that Taiwan does not need to declare formal independence because it already sees itself as a sovereign nation. The US has long supported Taiwan, including being bound by law to provide it with a means of self-defence, but has frequently had to square this alliance with maintaining a diplomatic relationship with China. Trump earlier said he had “made no commitment either way” about the self-governing island - which China claims as part of its territory and has not ruled out taking by force. Washington’s established position is that it does not support Taiwanese independence, with continued ties with Beijing being contingent on its acceptance that there is only one Chinese government. Beijing has been vocal in its dislike of Taiwan’s president, who it has previously described as a “troublemaker” and a “destroyer of cross-strait peace”. Many Taiwanese consider themselves to be part of a separate nation - though most are in favour of maintaining the status quo in which Taiwan neither declares independence from China nor unites with it. In his interview with Fox News, Trump reiterated that US policy on the matter had not changed. “You know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles (15,289km) to fight a war. I’m not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down.” On the flight back to Washington, the US president had told reporters that he and Xi had spoken “a lot” about the island, but said he had declined to discuss whether the US would defend it. Xi “feels very strongly” about the island and “doesn’t want to see a movement for independence”, Trump said. “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi warned during the talks, according to Chinese state media, adding: “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict.” - BBC

President Vladimir Putin is expected to travel to China next week, the South China Morning Post reported Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter, who said the Russian leader’s trip would unlikely feature the same “scale and pomp” seen during the U.S.-China summit in Beijing this week. The upcoming visit, reportedly planned for just Wednesday, was described by anonymous sources as part of “Moscow’s routine dealings with Beijing, with little expectation that there would be an elaborate parade or welcome.” Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov confirmed that preparations are underway for Putin’s trip to China, telling reporters that a date would be announced “very, very soon.” The agenda is clear. First and foremost, it is our bilateral relations, which are special relations of a privileged strategic partnership,” Peskov said during a daily briefing. The South China Morning Post reported that the back-to-back visits by Putin and Trump will mark the first time China has hosted Russian and U.S. leaders for bilateral talks in the same month, hinting that Beijing seeks to strike a balance in its relations with the two countries - Moscow Times

• Nina Litvinova, a prominent Russian human rights activist and dissident whose suicide was reported recently by Russian media, left a note blaming President Vladimir Putin for her death, according to her cousin. The 80-year-old’s suicide was first reported on May 13. The following day, her cousin, journalist Maria Slonin, published what she said was an excerpt from Litvinova’s note on social media. Nobody -- neither RIA nor Gazeta.Ru, which first reported it -- will, of course, publish the note, because it lays out the reasons for her death far too plainly. So we decided to show the real reasons: Putin killed her!” Slonim wrote. The excerpt speaks of Putin’s domestic repression of opponents and his ongoing war on Ukraine. “I love all of you and think about you. But I must leave; living has become unbearable for me. Ever since Putin attacked Ukraine and has been killing innocent people, while here at home thousands are endlessly thrown into prison, suffering and dying there simply because, like me, they oppose the war and oppose killing,” it says - RFE/RL

• President Volodymyr Zelensky and several foreign diplomats on May 15 paid their respects to the victims of the previous day’s Russian missile attack that destroyed part of an apartment building in Kyiv, killing 24 people, including three children.

  The visit came an hour after first responders concluded search and rescue efforts at the site, 28 hours after a Russian missile struck the building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district. Fifty-six missiles of various types, including Iskander ballistic and Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, were launched in the overnight attack, as well as 675 one-way attack drones, according to Ukraine's Air Force - Kyiv Independent

Three potential candidates cleared their path to challenging UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership. Starmer is embattled after devastating local election results last week. Wes Streeting, Andy Burnham, and Angela Rayner are all expected to stand in any leadership election, but all face challenges: Health Secretary Streeting may not have the party support, Burnham must first win a special election against a surging populist party to enter parliament, and Rayner was until recently under investigation for tax irregularities. The political turmoil has already sent government borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, and UK business leaders complained that the Labour Party infighting would further damage investment. “Nero fiddles,” one FTSE 100 boss told the Financial Times, leaving while Rome burns unspoken - Semafor

Tehran has “no trust” in the US and is interested in negotiating with Washington only if it is serious, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday, as talks on ending the war remained on hold. Araghchi told reporters in New Delhi that all vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz except those “at war” with Tehran, if they coordinate with Iran’s navy. But the situation around the waterway, vital to global energy and commodities markets, was “very complicated,” he added, during a visit to attend a BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in India. Iran effectively shut the strait, which normally handles about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and gas supply, to most shipping after the US and Israel began their war on Iran in February. Washington and Tehran announced a ceasefire last month but have been struggling to thrash out a lasting peace pact. Talks mediated by Pakistan have been suspended since Iran and the US each rejected the other’s latest proposals last week. Araghchi said “contradictory messages” had raised Iranian doubts about the Americans’ real intentions, adding that the Pakistani mediation process had not failed but was in “difficulty.” The United States and Israel have cut short two previous rounds of talks with Tehran in the past 13 months by launching campaigns of airstrikes on Iran. Iran is trying to keep the latest ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance but is also prepared to go back to fighting, Araghchi said. The issues holding up negotiations between the two sides include Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its control of the Strait of Hormuz - Reuters

• Oman has been caught in geopolitical crossfire after Iran said it was coordinating with the Gulf state over the future management of the strait of Hormuz, including Tehran’s plans to impose fees on commercial shipping. The Omani exclave of Musandam lies to the south of the contested waterway, which normally carries a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil traffic but has been blockaded for 10 weeks since the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February. The US has said repeatedly there can be no permanent solution to the blockade that involves the payment of a toll to Iran, and claims that Oman holds a similar view. Speaking in India on Friday, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, defined the strait of Hormuz as an exclusively Omani-Iranian waterway. “The strait is located in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman,” he said. “There is no international waters in between.” Araghchi added that Iran was coordinating with Oman about the future management of the strait. Oman has so far been silent about Iran’s plans to charge a fee and to demand details on the nationality of all ships passing through the waterway - The Guardian

• Iran is smuggling at least 6 million liters of fuel each day to neighboring Pakistan, traders and transporters in the South Asian country told RFE/RL, in violation of US sanctions on the Islamic republic. Fuel trafficking is a lifeline for cash-strapped Iran, which is under a US naval blockade that has disrupted its lucrative oil exports. Weeks of US-Israeli bombing has also left the Middle Eastern country’s key infrastructure and industries in tatters. Iran has smuggled gasoline and diesel to Pakistan since around 2013, when the United States significantly tightened economic sanctions against Tehran. But there are signs that the volume of fuel that Iran is trafficking has increased since the war began on February 28. In response to the US-Israeli bombing campaign, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil supplies, triggering a surge in world fuel prices and upending the global economy. Pakistan, a US ally, could come under pressure to clamp down on the smuggling of Iranian oil, experts say. Islamabad has acted as a mediator in negotiations between Washington and Tehran to end the war - RFE/RL

The twangy jingle produced by Kars4Kids will no longer be broadcast in California, at least in its current form, after a state judge determined last week the charity’s ads amounted to false advertising. The infamously catchy tune – “1-877-Kars4Kids/K-A-R-S Kars for Kids/1-877-Kars4Kids/Donate your car today” – has been on airwaves for nearly two decades. During that time, Kars4Kids has faced litigation and state government investigations for its misleading fundraising practices. Bruce Puterbaugh brought suit against the charity in 2021, after he parted ways with a nonfunctional 2001 Volvo XC valued at $250. He donated to the charity, believing it worked in service of “underprivileged kids from all over the US”, according to documents from the Orange county superior court. Puterbaugh would later learn Kars4Kids is used to fund Oorah, a Jewish non-profit. That organization runs summer camps in the tri-state area and organizes gap year trips to Israel for 17- and 18-year-olds. Oorah also used $16.5m funneled from Kars4Kids to buy a building in Israel as it expands its presence there. “I feel taken advantage of by the ad and information that was not there,” he said in court testimony. Esti Landau, the organization’s chief operating officer, testified that the well-known ad does not mention the Jewish community. Kars4Kids funnels about $45m annually to Oorah. Of the 120,000 cars donated nationwide, approximately 30,000 originated in California, per court documents. It’s unclear over what time period those cars were donated. Kars4Kids was ordered to pay $250 in restitution to the plaintiff and given a deadline of 30 days to “cease all non-compliant broadcasting in California” - The Guardian

In what sounds suspiciously like the plot of a low-budget sci-fi film sponsored by a yogurt company, Chinese scientists have successfully cloned six “super high-yield” dairy goats in Shaanxi Province - the country’s first batch cloning of elite milk-producing goats. According to the state Xinhua news agency, the cloned animals, four males and two females, were created from donor goats capable of producing more than 2,800 kilograms of milk annually - far outperforming ordinary goats and apparently possessing the sort of résumé usually reserved for Olympic athletes or hedge fund managers. Researchers say the goats also boast strong disease resistance, environmental adaptability and stable reproductive performance. In other words: the perfect employees. Scientists at Northwest A&F University say the breakthrough could slash breeding times from a decade to just a few years, helping China accelerate food security goals under its new Five-Year Plan. Shaanxi Province already produces 80 percent of China’s goat milk products, meaning the region may soon become the Silicon Valley of cloned dairy livestock. No word yet on whether the goats themselves were consulted about being duplicated six times.

The journals….

Tonight’s World Briefing Plus - exclusive for paid subscribers - covers three of the most consequential stories unfolding right now:

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump–Xi Summit: The headlines will call it a win. I’m not so sure. China plays the long game and has a well-documented habit of setting diplomatic booby traps for Western leaders. Watch what’s agreed to - and more importantly, what isn’t (so far, the takeaways for either side appear minimal).

🇺🇦 Ukraine - A Catastrophic 24 Hours: The numbers coming out of Kyiv and across Ukraine are horrific. Russian missile and drone strikes have left dozens dead and many more injured. This is one of the worst single-day tolls in recent memory.

The Hollowing of Ukrainian Society: Beyond the battlefield, I raise the alarm on something slower and just as dangerous - the mass departure of Ukrainians from their country, and the social fraying among those who remain. We are not yet at the point of no return. But we need to keep our eye on that ball.

▶️ Watch the full video below — or tap the link if you’re reading this in your inbox.

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• As Trump returns to Beijing, the mood around the visit appears more cautious than during his first trip in 2017. Trump’s first visit was marked by lavish “state visit-plus” treatment, including a private tea with Xi Jinping in the Forbidden City. At the time, both sides emphasised personal diplomacy, with optimism that leader-level ties could drive broader cooperation. This time, Trump is still expected to receive a formal welcome - including a state banquet and a cultural tour - but analysts said the pomp will fall short of the lavish reception seen in 2017. The shift reflects lessons learned over the past decade. Trump’s first term ultimately gave way to tariffs, tech restrictions and a deepening strategic rivalry, tempering earlier hopes that leader-level chemistry could reshape ties. As one analyst put it, the relationship is now “less romantic” - with fewer expectations that personal rapport alone can deliver breakthroughs. Beyond Iran, the talks are also expected to touch on long-standing flashpoints such as Taiwan and nuclear arms, although these issues are unlikely to dominate the agenda, said Philip Luck, an economist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I think the best outcome here is they have a dialogue … There’s decisions around sort of purchases on both sides and sort of commitments to continue conversation, commitments on continuing dialogue,” Luck said. “I think that’s with no giant concessions on important issues on either side,” he said - CNA

Global oil inventories are declining at an alarming rate, the International Energy Agency warned Wednesday, as the Strait of Hormuz shutdown continues to strain the energy sector. “Oil is in a race against time,” one analyst said. Even if the mounting pressure on oil stockpiles forces the reopening of the strait in June — as JPMorgan analysts recently predicted — the market will be “severely undersupplied” until October, the IEA warned. Import-dependent countries are turning to the US, which has become the world’s “supplier of last resort,” with exports hitting a record high, a Bloomberg energy columnist wrote. But it can only play that part for so long; the US’ crude oil and gas inventories are consistently falling - Semafor

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer moved quickly to shore up his position Wednesday, meeting with MPs and ministers in Parliament after allies of Health Secretary Wes Streeting signaled he could launch a leadership challenge as soon as Thursday. BBC reported that Starmer was blunt in the room, warning that a contest would “100% plunge Labour into chaos” - a sign of just how seriously Downing Street is taking the threat. Streeting would need backing from at least 81 Labour MPs to trigger a challenge, a high but not impossible bar. Defence minister Al Carns is also expected to put his name forward if a contest materializes, though he would enter as a heavy underdog. The drama unfolded on an otherwise ceremonial day in Westminster - King Charles had earlier delivered the government’s agenda at the State Opening of Parliament. But the pageantry was quickly overshadowed by the internal turbulence. As BBC political editor Chris Mason noted, the government had braced for a post-election reboot - not a battle for Starmer’s own survival.

Missiles and drones rocked Kyiv overnight on May 14 as Russia launched a large-scale missile attack across Ukraine, extending a mass daytime assault into the late evening and early morning hours. In the early hours of Thursday local time, news outlets reported at least 14 dead and more than 80 injured nationwide. Shortly before 1 a.m., Ukraine’s Air Force issued a nationwide aerial alert, warning that Russia had launched MiG-31 bombers and that every region in the country was now at risk of ballistic missile strikes. Explosions were heard in Ukraine’s capital, a Kyiv Independent journalist on the ground reported at 3:08 a.m. local time, as many air defense systems worked to knock down Russian drones. Fallen drone debris sparked a fire on the roof of a five-story residential building in the Dniprovskyi district, and debris fell onto a road in the Holosiivskyi district, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported.

• President Vladimir Putin replaced the governors of the Bryansk and Belgorod regions, two regions bordering Ukraine that have been regularly hit by Kyiv’s retaliatory attacks, the Kremlin said Wednesday. The two governors — Alexander Bogomaz and Vyacheslav Gladkov — led the regions throughout Moscow’s Ukraine war. The Russian leader replaced them with an army general who has fought in Ukraine and an official who previously worked for Russia’s occupational authorities in east Ukraine. Gladkov — who had led the Belgorod region, the worst hit by Ukrainian counterstrikes, since 2021 — had documented the attacks daily, with Russian media reporting on his popularity in the region. Putin appointed Alexander Shuvayev, a Russian army general who has fought in Ukraine since 2022, as interim head of Belgorod. He also appointed Yegor Kovalchuk — who briefly led Russian occupation authorities in Lugansk — as interim leader of Bryansk. Both Bryansk and Belgorod have been hit by cross-border attacks by Ukraine during Moscow’s offensive, even suffering incursions earlier in the four-year war - Moscow Times

CBS News anchor Tony Dokoupil will broadcast from Taipei this week after failing to obtain a visa to China in time, a stumble in the network’s efforts to play a leading role in this week’s dominant global story. American broadcasters are planning extensive coverage from the Chinese capital this week. Semafor first reported Sunday that NBC News’s Tom Llamas would be anchoring from Beijing, as will ABC News’s David Muir. CBS appears to have planned similar coverage, and was forced to change course at the last minute: On the CBS morning planning call Wednesday, they discussed plans for Dokoupil to broadcast from the Taiwanese capital, according to a person on the call. Two people who had been briefed on the issue said Dokoupil had not been able to get a Chinese visa, though it’s unclear whether the block came from a late application or another issue. The setback comes as CBS Evening News, already in third place, has continued to see its ratings slide. Wednesday evening’s broadcast was prematurely ended when a CBS cameraman on set in Taipei reportedly fainted.

British Airways has introduced strict new rules forbidding its cabin crew from taking selfies, making TikToks, or posting any photos while staying in hotels during layovers. Staff have been warned that violating this policy could result in termination. The airline is even asking crew members to delete past posts — including private ones — if they feature hotel interiors, exteriors, or even nearby parking lots. According to the airline, photos taken in or around hotels could unintentionally reveal the crew’s location to malicious actors through background details like pool tiles, signage, or recognizable views. As a result, British Airways has banned all types of content creation during layovers, including popular “get ready with me” videos, uniform selfies, and even shots taken from hotel windows. This builds on a 2023 rule that already prohibited crew from posting anything while “professionally engaged,” such as in-flight or cockpit selfies. Critics argue the policy may be extreme and potentially counterproductive. View From the Wing noted that hotel locations are often already known, since airline staff arrive in uniform and may share their whereabouts with others. With many flight attendants turning to social media content as a side hustle, the crackdown could alienate a growing wave of influencers who also serve as unofficial brand ambassadors for the airline.

The journals….

The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities. Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway. People with knowledge of the assessments said they show — to varying degrees, depending on the level of damage incurred at the different sites — that the Iranians can use mobile launchers that are inside the sites to move missiles to other locations. In some cases they can launch missiles directly from launchpads that are part of the facilities. Only three of the missile sites along the strait remain totally inaccessible, according to the assessments. Iran still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea. Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams including satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be “partially or fully operational,” the people with knowledge of the assessments said. The findings undercut months of public assurances from President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who have told Americans that the Iranian military was “decimated” and “no longer” a threat. The new intelligence assessments suggest that Mr. Trump and his military advisers overestimated the damage that the U.S. military could inflict on Iranian missile sites, and underestimated Iran’s resilience and ability to bounce back - NYT

• Senior US and Chinese officials agree that no country can be allowed to exact shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, the State Department told Reuters on Tuesday, in a sign that the two countries are trying to find common ground on efforts to pressure Iran to give up control of the vital waterway. The statement by the State Department comes ahead of a high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week, where Iran’s chokehold on the strait will be on the agenda. The State Department said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the issue in an April phone call. “They agreed that no country or organization can be allowed to charge tolls to pass through international waterways like the Strait of Hormuz,” department spokesman Tommy Pigott told Reuters in response to questions about the call. China’s embassy did not dispute the US account of the discussion, saying it hoped all sides can work together to resume normal traffic through the strait, which before the war handled one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply. “Keeping the area safe and stable and ensuring unimpeded passage serves the common interest of the international community,” embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu told Reuters.

Gulf states have been quick to insist that the Iran conflict won’t drive a wedge between them and Washington, but the reality is more layered, Semafor writes. While the US remains the dominant power in the region - its military strength and air defense technology having shielded the Gulf from far worse during the war - the conflict has quietly opened a door for China to deepen its foothold.

Beijing’s leverage was on display early: it was reportedly China that pressed Tehran to accept a ceasefire, and as Iran’s key ally and the Gulf’s largest trading partner, it has more to lose economically from a prolonged conflict than Washington does. That combination of economic weight and diplomatic access is giving Gulf states reason to look east, even as they maintain that the US remains their preferred partner.

The numbers tell part of the story. Bilateral trade between the Gulf and China surpassed Gulf trade with the West for the first time in 2024, and has grown over 250% since 2010. Chinese foreign direct investment into Saudi Arabia has surged, making Beijing one of the kingdom’s top investors behind the US. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund recently opened a second mainland China office to facilitate dealmaking. Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince visited Beijing in April, with the emirate now reportedly considering consolidating its Chinese assets into a new investment vehicle to boost exposure — a move Chinese state media framed as the UAE seeking more reliable partners.

Part of what makes China attractive is predictability. US-Gulf relations have been shaped by shifting administrations, domestic politics, and at times jarring personal diplomacy — from Biden’s “pariah” remark about Saudi Arabia to Trump’s recent crude comments about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before the Saudi business elite. Beijing offers none of that volatility.

China isn’t positioned to replace the US. Washington’s military dominance, its lead in AI, and the Gulf’s ambitions in the technology sector all keep the region anchored to America. But Beijing is carving out space in areas Washington has less interest in defending — automotive, manufacturing, renewable energy, and now post-war reconstruction. As the Gulf looks to recover from the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China is expected to play a significant role in rebuilding infrastructure, developing new trade routes, and tapping into the region’s critical minerals ambitions in ways that serve its own global strategy.

Trump returns from his Gulf visit having secured trillions in investment pledges, and heads to Beijing this week seeking deals. China, meanwhile, is pursuing its regional influence more quietly — and, the piece suggests, potentially more effectively.

Source: Semafor

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing a significant internal revolt, with four ministers resigning and calling for him to step down, joining over 80 Labour MPs demanding he quit immediately or set a timetable for his departure. At the same time, BBC reported that more than 100 Labour MPs have signed a statement backing Starmer, arguing this is not the moment for a leadership contest. Starmer told cabinet he would “get on with governing” and that no leadership contest had been triggered. Deputy PM David Lammy sought to cool tensions, telling colleagues no one appears ready to mount a challenge and urging them to “take a breath.” Starmer is set to meet Health Secretary Wes Streeting — considered a potential leadership rival — on Wednesday morning.

Fourteen of the EU’s 27 member states have condemned Russia’s return to the Venice Biennale, with culture ministers holding what was described as a “heated discussion” in Brussels on Tuesday. Latvia raised the issue, calling for action against what it framed as the instrumentalization of cultural institutions by Russia, Euronews reported. Countries including Belgium, Spain, and Poland argued that culture cannot be used to whitewash Russia’s war against Ukraine. The European Commission has moved to freeze a €2 million grant to the Biennale Foundation, citing a breach of grant conditions, and both Brussels and the Cypriot EU presidency called for the funds to be redirected toward Ukraine’s reconstruction. The Biennale Foundation has pushed back, arguing it cannot bar a country recognized by the Italian state from participating and that the event must remain a place of artistic freedom and dialogue. The controversy has also exposed divisions within Italy’s own government — Culture Minister Alessandro Giuli boycotted the opening ceremony, while Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini visited the Russian pavilion in a show of support. Russia’s pavilion reopened this year after its artists voluntarily withdrew in 2022 and the country skipped 2024 entirely. The Biennale’s international jury has since resigned collectively, following criticism over its decision to exclude from prize consideration countries whose leaders face ICC charges.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday called MS NOW’s Akayla Gardner “a dumb person” for accurately pointing out that the cost of his ballroom had doubled since it was first announced. The exchange occurred while Trump was speaking with reporters on the South Lawn of the White House on Tuesday afternoon before he left for China for several days of events and meetings. “You wanted [Federal Reserve Chair] Jerome Powell fired for cost overruns,” Gardner pointed out to Trump, referring to the Fed’s ongoing renovation project of its Washington headquarters. “How is that different than your ballroom and the reflecting pool?” “What happened is that we have a ballroom that’s under budget,” Trump replied. “It’s going up right here. I’ve doubled the size of it because we obviously need that, and we’re right now on budget, under budget, and ahead of schedule.” “The price has doubled,” Gardner pointed out. The price of the ballroom has doubled from $200 million when it was first announced last summer to $400 million. Congressional Republicans have also proposed more than $220 million to go toward security features for the ballroom as part of their reconciliation package, according to a memo obtained by MS NOW that breaks down the funding. “I doubled the size of it, you dumb person,” Trump replied. “I doubled the size.” “What about the reflecting pool?” Gardner asked, referring to the cost of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool renovation snowballing from $1.8 million to more than $13 million. “You are not a smart person,” Trump responded. It’s the latest in a string of attacks the president has launched at female journalists. Earlier this month, Trump called ABC News’ Rachel Scott a “horror show” after she asked why he is focused on renovation projects while gas prices soar as a result of the war in Iran - MS Now

The promised economic boon from the World Cup hasn’t matched expectations, at least not yet, for U.S. hotels. Room bookings have been lighter than expected in most of the 11 U.S. cities hosting the world’s most watched sporting event, according to an April survey by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. In several cities, including Kansas City, Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Seattle, a majority of hotel operators said bookings were actually running behind typical seasonal demand. In others, including New York City, Los Angeles, Dallas and Houston, demand was flat so far compared with a regular spring and summer, according to the association. The hotel association blamed travel concerns from international fans, worries about wait times for a U.S. visa and the cost of attending the tournament — including high ticket prices and transit costs in some cities— as major factors in the softer-than-expected demand. Concerns about softer-than-expected bookings extend to Mexico, which is co-hosting the games with the U.S. and Canada. Hotels in Mexico City, which hosts the tournament’s opening match on June 11, are about 30% to 36% booked, according to the Asociación de Hoteles de Ciudad de México. In Vancouver, Canada, which is hosting seven matches, hotel occupancy is down from the same time last year, but the industry is optimistic business will pick up closer to the games, says Paul Hawes, CEO of the British Columbia Hotel Association - AP

The journals….

A fragile US-Iran ceasefire is teetering, oil markets are rattled, and the fate of a critical global shipping lane hangs in the balance - all as Presidents Trump and Xi sit down for what may be one of the most consequential summits of the year.

According to CNN, President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire is on “massive life support” after Tehran’s latest counterproposal - which reportedly included a demand for recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz - was dismissed by Washington as “simply unacceptable.” Iran’s foreign ministry pushed back, calling its terms “reasonable” and “generous.”

The standoff is already hitting consumers. Oil prices climbed sharply following Trump’s rejection of Iran’s offer, stoking fears that the Strait of Hormuz - through which a significant share of the world’s oil supply passes - could remain closed indefinitely. Oman’s foreign minister, following talks with the International Maritime Organization, called for urgent action to free vessels stranded along the strait.

The economic stakes are growing by the day. Analysts warn that a prolonged closure risks a historic energy shock, according to Semafor. Despite a disruption of nearly one billion barrels of oil, crude prices have so far stayed below their 2022 peak, cushioned by large reserves, US exports, and market expectations that the strait would reopen. But that buffer may not hold: Morgan Stanley has warned that without a deal by late June, oil could top $130 a barrel. JPMorgan, meanwhile, forecasts that US pump prices could hit $5 a gallon, with crude shortages hitting refined products hardest. The US Energy Secretary refused to rule out that scenario, floating a possible suspension of gasoline taxes as relief. Across Asia, nations are already pivoting to coal, the Financial Times reported.

Against this backdrop, this week’s Trump-Xi summit carries enormous stakes. Trump is under mounting domestic pressure to end the conflict, driven by rising gas prices and growing public opposition to the war. Washington is expected to press Beijing to use its considerable leverage over Tehran - China is Iran’s largest oil purchaser and is reported to be supplying Iran with satellite imagery and other military support - to push Iran toward a deal.

What remains unclear is what Washington might offer Beijing in return. Possible concessions could include cancelling a planned arms sale to Taiwan, or quietly giving China greater latitude to pursue its ambitions in Taiwan and the broader South China Sea - a trade-off that would alarm US allies across the Indo-Pacific and raises profound questions about the price of peace in one region versus stability in another.

Sources: CNN; Semafor; World Briefing Plus reporting

• Tens of millions of people could face hunger and starvation if fertilisers are not soon allowed through the Strait of Hormuz, the head of a UN task force aimed at averting a looming humanitarian crisis told AFP on Monday. “We have a few weeks ahead of us to prevent what will likely be a massive humanitarian crisis,” Jorge Moreira da Silva, executive director of the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) and leader of the task force. “We may witness a crisis that will force 45 million more people into hunger and starvation.” While the ultimate hope is for a "lasting peace" deal in the region and "freedom of navigation for all commodities" through the strait, "the problem is the planting season can't wait", Moreira da Silva said, with some ending in African nations within weeks.

• The CEO of the world’s largest oil company has warned that the world’s petrol and jet fuel supplies will reach “critically low levels” over the next few months if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Armando said Monday that the depletion of “onshore inventories” was “rapidly accelerating” with refined fuels declining fastest, the Financial Times reported. He added that since the start of the Iran war, the world has lost 1bn barrels of oil supplies, with another 100mn barrels lost every week that the Strait remained closed. Inventories are “the only buffer that are available today” but they have been “materially depleted,” Nasser said. JPMorgan warned that the commercial oil inventory could “approach operational stress levels” by early June, limiting the world’s ability to keep absorbing the loss of Middle Eastern supplies by drawing oil out of storage.

U.S. Public Health Response to Hantavirus Outbreak Draws Widespread Criticism

Health experts are raising alarms over what they describe as a slow and disjointed U.S. response to an ongoing hantavirus outbreak linked to a cruise ship - one that has generated international headlines but little visible action from American public health authorities.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was notably absent in the early days of the outbreak, with no disease investigators dispatched, no public briefings held, and no alerts issued to physicians. It wasn’t until late Friday that the CDC accelerated its response, deploying a team to Spain’s Canary Islands to meet American passengers and arranging a medical evacuation to a University of Nebraska quarantine facility.

The agency also issued its first health alert to U.S. doctors - days into an internationally recognized outbreak. When officials finally held a briefing Saturday, it was by phone only, for invited reporters, and under rules set by aides to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that barred journalists from naming the speakers. The CDC’s acting director, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, made his first on-camera appearance Saturday morning on Fox News, where he told viewers not to worry - but got key facts wrong, including the nationalities and ages of passengers who had died.

Experts say the muted response reflects deep structural problems. The Trump administration has laid off thousands of CDC scientists and public health professionals, withdrawn from the World Health Organization, and at times restricted CDC scientists from communicating with international counterparts. In place of WHO engagement, the administration has pursued bilateral health agreements with roughly 30 individual countries - an approach critics say is wholly inadequate for managing global health threats.

“You can’t possibly cover a global health crisis by doing one-on-one deals with countries here and there,” said Lawrence Gostin of Georgetown University.

The contrast with past outbreaks is stark. During the 2020 Diamond Princess COVID crisis, the CDC deployed personnel, ran quarantines, coordinated with the WHO and Japan, held public briefings, and rapidly published data that became a global reference. This time, it has been the WHO - not the CDC - setting the pace, conducting risk assessments, and leading international coordination. “This just shows how empty and vapid the CDC is right now,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, director of Brown University’s Pandemic Center.

The outbreak itself - caused by hantavirus, which does not spread easily between people - has not escalated into a broader public health crisis. But experts warn that is due to the nature of the virus, not the strength of the U.S. response. “This is a sentinel event,” said Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. “Right now, I’m very sorry to say, we are not prepared.” President Trump, meanwhile, told reporters the situation appears to be “under very good control.”

• The last passengers have left the hantavirus-hit cruise ship, as authorities confirmed three new positive cases linked to the deadly outbreak. The MV Hondius departed Tenerife for the Netherlands on Monday after its final six passengers - four Australians, one Briton and one New Zealander - and some crew members disembarked. Three passengers have died after travelling on the ship, two of whom were confirmed to have had the virus. An American and a French national who had previously returned home have tested positive, authorities said. Seven cases of hantavirus linked to the MV Hondius have been confirmed, with two others suspected, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Spain’s health ministry said one Spaniard who is quarantining in Madrid after being evacuated from the vessel had also provisionally tested positive for hantavirus on Monday.

The three-day ceasefire that U.S. President Donald Trump proposed — and that Russia and Ukraine both agreed to - expired at midnight on May 12. The truce ran from May 9 through May 11. Both sides accused each other of violating it throughout all three days. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 10 that Russia had not launched any large-scale air strikes, but that Russian forces on the front line were not observing any quiet and were not even particularly trying to. Russian troops, he said, were continuing their assault activity in the directions that were key for them. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on the afternoon of May 11 that Ukrainian forces had struck Russian positions with drones and artillery fire. Russian troops, the ministry said, had responded in kind to Ukrainian actions. Authorities in Russian and Ukrainian regions — including the Kharkiv, Kherson, Belgorod, and Kursk regions — reported deaths and casualties from drone strikes. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on May 9 that there were no agreements to extend the ceasefire - Meduza

• Moscow expects an explanation from Armenia over President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “anti-Russian statements” delivered at a European summit in Yerevan, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on May 10. Zelensky visited Armenia for the European Political Summit held on May 4-5, marking his first visit to the South Caucasus country. The president held bilateral meetings with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and other leaders, and urged the European community to increase pressure on Russia in order to end its war against Ukraine. Armenia has the right to hold any summit as part of its multi-vector foreign policy, Peskov told Russian state news outlet Vesti. However, platforming “anti-Russian” positions is “inconsistent with the spirit of relations” between Moscow and Yerevan, Peskov said, criticizing Pashinyan for not pushing back against such statements. “The main thing is that Armenia doesn’t take an anti-Russian stance. That’s what’s most important to us,” Peskov added. Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued veiled threats toward Armenia over its push to join the EU. The Russian leader said Armenia should hold a referendum on its EU bid and drew parallels between Yerevan’s European aspirations and EuroMaidan events in Ukraine. “We are witnessing the consequences of developments surrounding Ukraine,” Putin said. “And where did it start? With Ukraine seeking to join the European Union.” - Kyiv Independent

The U.S.-brokered 72-hour ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine expires Monday as both countries accuse each other of violating it. I provided some context to CBS News.

The head of the International Committee of the Red Cross is sounding the alarm: Iraq, still scarred by decades of war, cannot afford to be swept into another regional conflagration. ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric issued the warning at the close of a two-day visit to Baghdad, where she met with senior Iraqi officials including President Nazar Amidi and outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. “Millions of people in Iraq continue to endure the consequences of wars and must be spared from further cycles of violence,” she said. Spoljaric also highlighted a mounting humanitarian crisis largely out of the headlines: Iraq has absorbed nearly 6,000 detainees transferred from Syria, among them hundreds of children who have spent close to a decade in camps with no schooling, no healthcare, and no prospects. “Iraq should not have to shoulder this alone,” she said, calling on all concerned states to share responsibility for a lasting solution. During her visit, Spoljaric toured Karkh Central Prison in Baghdad, where the ICRC works to reconnect detainees — including foreign nationals — with their families, and advises authorities on health, infrastructure, and humane treatment standards. Her Iraq stop is part of a broader regional tour, with the ICRC warning that military escalation across the Middle East risks erasing years of hard-won stability and dealing a severe blow to regional economies.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The journals…..

Israel bombed an Iranian naval base on the Caspian Sea last March — not because of what happened there, but because of what flows through it. That strike on Bandar Anzali was a message: the West has finally noticed that Russia and Iran have built a covert logistics corridor through a body of water that almost nobody in Washington was watching.

They should have been watching much sooner.

The Caspian connection is just one thread in what has become a deep and dangerous Russia-Iran operational partnership - one that goes far beyond smuggled wheat and drone parts. According to reporting verified by multiple Western media outlets, Russia has provided Iran with high-quality satellite targeting data used to strike U.S. military and diplomatic installations across the Middle East. Russian intelligence is also reported to have shared targeting information that Iran used against Israel. These are not the actions of a passive trade partner hedging its bets. These are the actions of a co-belligerent.

Against that backdrop, The New York Times has documented the Caspian’s role as the physical pipeline for that partnership. U.S. officials say Russia has been shipping drone components north-to-south across the sea, helping Iran rebuild an arsenal that was depleted by roughly 60 percent during recent fighting. Four Iranian ports along the Caspian are running around the clock to absorb Russian wheat, corn, cooking oils, and other essentials that can no longer move through the U.S.-blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Russian trade analysts told the Times that Caspian cargo tonnage could double this year.

The military exchange has flowed in both directions for years. Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones that rained down on Ukrainian cities; Russia sent components back. By mid-2023, Moscow had begun manufacturing its own Shahed variant under Iranian license - and has since shared design improvements with Tehran, according to experts. Those same drones, refined through battlefield use in Ukraine, are now being rebuilt and redeployed by Iran. The loop is closed and it runs through the Caspian.

What makes this corridor so dangerous is how difficult it is to disrupt. The Caspian is inaccessible to U.S. naval interdiction - only the five bordering nations have access under international agreement, the newspaper reported. Ships routinely disable their transponders, making satellite tracking nearly useless. And the sea falls awkwardly across the boundaries of multiple U.S. military commands and State Department bureaus, producing what one analyst described to the Times as a “geopolitical black hole.”

That bureaucratic blind spot has real consequences. The same institutional fragmentation that allowed the Caspian to be overlooked as a trade route. the newspaper reported, has allowed it to be overlooked as an intelligence and interdiction challenge. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned one Russian vessel - the MG-Flot carrier at the port of Olya — for allegedly transporting Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia. Ukraine later struck it. But one sanctioned ship is not a strategy.

The United States needs a fundamentally tougher posture here, on multiple fronts. The drone pipeline that runs through the Caspian feeds the same weapons that are killing Ukrainians. The targeting intelligence Russia shares with Iran has put American service members and diplomats at risk. And a trade corridor designed to make both countries sanction-proof - if allowed to mature - will significantly erode the West’s primary tool of economic pressure.

Russia is not a bystander in Iran’s war. It is a partner, a supplier, and by sharing targeting data on American and Israeli assets, arguably something closer to a participant. The Caspian is where that partnership operates most freely. It cannot remain a blind spot.

Reporting drawn from The New York Times. Additional analysis by World Briefing

Russian President Vladimir Putin repeated the Kremlin’s oft-stated offer to transport and store enriched uranium from Iran if it would help seal a deal to end the war in Iran. Putin said Russia had transported enriched uranium from Iran once before, in 2015, and that Moscow was ready “to repeat this experience.” The Russian leader said Iran, the US. and Israel had all had agreed to the transporting the uranium out of Iran. “But then the United States hardened its position and demanded that the uranium be transported exclusively to US territory. Iran then hardened its position,” he said. Some US and other Western officials rejected earlier suggestions that Russia take possession of Iran’s uranium in light of the close relations between Moscow and Tehran - RFE/RL

Passengers are disembarking the cruise ship at the center of the hantavirus outbreak, Spain’s Ministry of Health said, in a carefully managed repatriation operation in Tenerife involving multiple nations. All passengers still aboard the vessel were screened Sunday and did not show symptoms, according to health authorities. Since the vessel departed Argentina last month, the deaths of three people have been linked to hantavirus — a rare disease typically caused by exposure to infected rats’ urine or feces. It remains a low risk to the general public, according to the World Health Organization, which also emphasized how the virus differs from Covid-19. The operation has caused tensions in the Canary Islands, an autonomous community of Spain. The territory’s leader said last week that he opposed the ship docking - CNN

Turkey’s grand unveiling of an intercontinental ballistic missile has backfired after an AI-generated promotional video showed the weapon seeming to strike its US ally. The Yıldırımhan missile was presented at a defence expo in Istanbul this week as capable of travelling 6,000km carrying a 3,000kg warhead at up to 25 times the speed of sound — placing Turkey among a small group of countries able to develop such weapons. But questions quickly arose about the real capabilities of the system, sparked by the AI video showing the Yıldırımhan hitting nuclear facilities and other targets that appeared to be in the US. The Americas would be well beyond the official range of the missile — and Turkish officials later admitted a working prototype of the Yıldırımhan had yet to be built for full testing. Turkey has been eager to showcase its military prowess ahead of a critical Nato leaders’ summit in Ankara this July. At the same time, the US-Israeli war with Iran has deepened Turkey’s ambition to increase its military deterrence amid a region wracked with conflict. “We intend to use it solely for deterrence purposes,” defence minister Yaşar Güler said at a launch event for the missile. “However, should the need arise, let no one doubt that we will deploy it without hesitation and in the most effective manner,” he added. There was no indication that Güler was aware that the video appeared to include targets in North America. Despite the fanfare, defence officials, industry representatives and military analysts soon questioned the true capabilities of the 18-metre-long missile. “It’s an overestimation. Turkey’s defence industry has many capabilities, and is improving fast, but it’s not yet at this level,” said one western defence official. “It seems very ambitious and questionable,” added Fabian Hoffman, a missile expert at the University of Oslo. Within days of unveiling the missile, Turkey’s ministry of defence clarified that the system was still in a testing phase. “Laboratory testing of the Yıldırımhan missile system, which has a warhead payload capacity of 3 tonnes, has been successfully completed, and field testing is proceeding,” it said on Thursday. Turkey’s booming defence industry has turned it into the world’s 11th biggest arms exporter and a key partner in Europe’s need to re-arm itself - FT

Russia accused Israeli authorities on Friday of caving in to pressure from Ukraine in ‌a dispute over a consignment of grain that was turned away from an Israeli port last month. Ukraine says the grain in question was stolen by Russia from regions ⁠of Ukraine that Moscow’s forces have seized in the war. In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry rejected what it called “the absurd and unsubstantiated claims made by the Ukrainian side”. It said it deplored the decision by the Israeli importing company not to allow the grain to ‌be ⁠unloaded at the port of Haifa.”Moscow regretted this step, clearly taken under pressure from Kyiv,” the statement said. “This runs counter to the Israeli authorities’ declared ⁠commitment to maintaining Russian-Israeli economic cooperation and threatens Israel’s own food security.” Ukraine said at the time that ⁠the fact the cargo had been turned away was a welcome development that showed ⁠the effectiveness of its legal and diplomatic actions - Reuters

Thailand’s Interior Ministry has ordered provincial authorities nationwide to take firm action against unruly foreign tourists, warning that those who break the law, intimidate Thai citizens or behave inappropriately could have their visas revoked and be deported immediately. Interior Ministry permanent secretary Arsit Sampantharat said on May 8, while carrying out duties in support of the 48th ASEAN Summit in the Philippines, that inappropriate behaviour by tourists in various provinces had affected Thailand’s tourism image and caused concern among residents in several areas. He said Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul had been closely following the issue and had instructed relevant agencies, including administrative officials, security agencies and tourism authorities, to promote understanding among business operators and tourists about Thai culture and the country’s way of life. Reports from Surat Thani said Governor Chumphote Wannachatsiri had taken action in cases involving Israelis staying long term on Koh Phangan, Koh Samui and Koh Tao. Some were reportedly using tourist visas to work, while others were accused of inappropriate behaviour or activities. Authorities are also investigating and cracking down on suspected nominee-style businesses, working with security agencies, immigration police and the provincial employment office to enforce the law strictly - Straits Times

Air India has slashed its flight schedule due to soaring jet fuel prices, leaving Canadian residents hoping to visit the subcontinent with fewer options and higher fares. The airline confirmed to CBC News that they have reduced the number of flights in May on their Delhi-Toronto route from 10 a week down to seven, and their Delhi-Vancouver route from seven to five flights a week. The airline has cut flight volumes for April and May, with plans for more schedule trims in June and July, said CEO Campbell Wilson in an internal message to staff verified by The Canadian Press. “This is in response to the massive rise in jet fuel prices which, together with airspace closures and longer flying routes, has caused many of our international flights to become unprofitable to operate,” Wilson said in last week’s memo. The number of round-trip Air India flights scheduled between Toronto and Delhi fell to 31 in May versus 48 in March, a 35 per cent decrease, according to aviation data tracker Cirium.

The journals….

This week's World Briefing Plus is coming to you live from Moldova, where I've relocated after evacuating Odessa, due to the deteriorating security situation in the southern Ukrainian port city. It's been a week that demanded attention on multiple fronts - a quietly spreading virus that's drawing uncomfortable comparisons to early 2020, a war in Iran that's already disrupting travel in ways most people haven't felt yet, and a three-day ceasefire in Ukraine that I'll be honest with you about. I also share details about two upcoming speaking engagements in Alberta that I'd love for you to be part of if you are in the province. First up this week on May 14 - the annual Kyiv Konnection Banquet in Edmonton. Hosted by the Ukrainian Foundation for College Education (UFCE), the banquet supports the work of MacEwan University’s Ukrainian Resource and Development Centre (URDC), which builds academic partnerships and community connections between Canada and Ukraine.

This is your exclusive weekend deep-dive — and it's only available to paid subscribers of World Briefing.

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World Briefing Hot Take 🔥

The deadly hantavirus outbreak linked to the MV Hondius cruise ship is not yet a pandemic - and health agencies say the broader public risk remains low. But it is already a warning shot.

The bigger danger may not be this virus. It may be the world’s broken trust.

COVID-19 left societies exhausted, angry and deeply suspicious of institutions. Lockdowns, mandates, border closures and - in some countries, including on my home country of Canada - serious abuses of power are still fresh in people’s minds. So if the next outbreak does require major restrictions or isolation measures, will the public listen? Or will many simply refuse?

And yet, there were lessons learned.

As I noted in a 2022 piece for CNN Opinion, more than 20 world leaders backed a proposed international pandemic treaty aimed at improving cooperation during future public health emergencies. The agreement called for greater preparedness, transparency and equitable access to vaccines, medicines and diagnostics. “We believe that nations should work together towards a new international treaty for pandemic preparedness and response,” the leaders wrote.

That spirit of cooperation mattered then - and it matters even more now.

One of the central themes explored in my book, Digital Pandemic: How Tech Went From Bad to Good, is that public health crises are no longer just about medicine. They are about trust, communication, transparency and whether governments still have the credibility to guide societies through emergencies.

If not this outbreak, then perhaps the next one. And I worry the world is far less prepared psychologically than many officials realize.

The book is available on Amazon, but if you’re in North America and would prefer to order directly through me - which I always appreciate - just send me a DM (or email me at mbociu@gmail.com) with your details and we’ll make it happen.

There are a lot of lessons in Digital Pandemic that I genuinely believe can help people better understand - and prepare for - worst-case scenarios should another major global outbreak emerge.

News Briefs
Health authorities across the globe are racing to trace dozens of people who disembarked from a cruise ship before an outbreak of hantavirus was detected, and anyone who has come into close contact with them since. Five cases have now been confirmed, including three deaths, following an outbreak on the Dutch vessel MV Hondius, the World Health Organization has said. The UN health agency also said the outbreak is not the start of pandemic like Covid six years ago, because this hantavirus strain spreads through “close, intimate contact”. But given the incubation period of this disease - which can be up to six weeks - it is possible more cases may be reported, the WHO said. About 150 passengers and crew from 28 countries are reported to have initially been aboard the vessel, but dozens got off on the island of St Helena on 24 April. Hantavirus typically spreads from rodents - but in the latest outbreak the transmission between people was documented for the first time, the WHO said. The WHO is in touch with officials in at least 12 countries who are monitoring citizens that returned home. Those countries include Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. One expert told the BBC the outbreak response has been “highly chaotic and uncoordinated” but there was little general risk to the public - BBC

• In comments carried by Spanish newspaper El Pais, the country’s health ministry has reported a suspected hantavirus case in Alicante. Javier Padilla, the secretary of state for health, said a woman may be infected. She was a passenger on the same plane as the patient who died in South Africa after travelling on the cruise ship and catching the virus - Sky News

Prime Minister Keir Starmer insisted Friday that he will not resign after bruising elections that saw his governing Labour Party suffer big losses and the hard-right party Reform UK make major gains. The local and regional elections are widely seen as an unofficial referendum on Starmer, whose popularity has plummeted since he led Labour to power less than two years ago. Voters have grown impatient for economic growth and dramatic change after 14 years of Conservative government, and many Labour lawmakers have become despairing at the government’s failure to deliver. Starmer said he took responsibility for the “very tough” results but would not quit. “The voters have sent a message about the pace of change, how they want their lives improved,” he said. “I was elected to meet those challenges, and I’m not going to walk away from those challenges and plunge the country into chaos.” - AP

Iran’s foreign minister on Friday accused the United States of “a reckless military adventure” and of undermining diplomatic efforts to end the war, a day after the U.S. military and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, asked about the state of negotiations, said that the United States expected a “response” from Iran on Friday, and both President Trump and Iran’s foreign ministry said that a monthlong cease-fire was holding. Washington and Tehran are debating a one-page U.S. proposal for the sides to reopen the strait and cease hostilities for 30 days as they negotiate a comprehensive deal, according to three Iranian officials. U.S. Central Command said on Thursday that “unprovoked Iranian attacks” on three American destroyers had involved missiles, drones and small boats. In response, the U.S. military said it had “targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces,” including missile and drone launch sites. The Iranian military said the United States had violated the cease-fire a day earlier by firing on an Iranian oil tanker trying to cross an American blockade. It said it had “retaliated by attacking U.S. military vessels.” Mr. Trump, speaking to reporters in Washington on Thursday evening, dismissed the Iranian attacks as a “trifle” and again warned that Iran “better sign their agreement fast,” an apparent reference to the one-page U.S. proposal. A key hurdle was the U.S. demand for advance commitments on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, they said. On Friday, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, questioned in a social media post whether the U.S. strikes were a “crude pressure tactic.” He added: “Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure.” - NYT

• The United Arab Emirates’ air defenses engaged with two ballistic missiles and three drones launched from Iran, with three people suffering moderate injuries, the UAE Ministry of Defense posted on X on Friday - Al Arabiya

Russia and Ukraine confirmed Friday that they have agreed to a three-day ceasefire and a prisoner exchange following a surprise diplomatic intervention by U.S. President Donald Trump. The deal, which Trump first announced on Truth Social, will pause fighting from May 9 through May 11 to coincide with Victory Day celebrations in Russia. As part of the agreement, the two warring sides will swap 1,000 prisoners each. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the breakthrough in a post on X, noting that the humanitarian need to recover captured troops took priority over military strikes on Moscow during the annual Victory Day parade. “Red Square is less important to us than the lives of Ukrainian prisoners who can be brought home,” Zelenskyy said. He credited the “negotiating process mediated by the American side” for securing the deal and thanked Trump and his team for their involvement. In Moscow, Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov confirmed Russia’s participation in the ceasefire, the state-run TASS news agency reported. Zelensky said he has instructed his team to “promptly prepare” for the prisoner exchange and called on the United States to ensure Russia fulfills its end of the bargain. The agreement brings an end to a confusing week of rival ceasefires between the two warring countries. Russia, as in past years, had unilaterally announced a ceasefire for May 8-10 to coincide with Victory Day. Ukraine later responded by proposing its own ceasefire for May 5-6. Both sides accused each other of violating their respective ceasefires. The Russian Defense Ministry warned it would carry out a major strike on the center of Kyiv if Ukrainian attacks on Saturday disrupted Victory Day celebrations - Moscow Times

• Ukrainian emergency personnel are battling a huge wildfire in the exclusion zone at Chornobyl, known at the time of the nuclear disaster in the former Soviet Union by its Russian name, Chernobyl. Strong winds, dry weather and landmines in some areas from the ongoing conflict are complicating efforts to control the blaze. Firefighters say it’s spreading rapidly - already covering some 11 sq km (4.2sq miles). - BBC

• Air raid sirens echoed across Odesa for much of Friday, forcing businesses to shut their doors, schoolchildren to rush into bomb shelters and daily life to grind to a halt amid fears of incoming missiles and drones. The same grim scene played out countless times across war-weary Ukraine, where ordinary people repeatedly told me that, above all else, they want a clear and credible timeline to end the conflict.

A humanoid robot in South Korea joined the Buddhist faith on Wednesday, during an ordination ceremony at Jogye Temple, located in central Seoul. The robot received the dharma name ‘Gabi,’ and made an official debut ahead of Buddha’s birthday and is expected to serve as an honorary monk for celebratory season surrounding the occasion.

The journals….

The United States was waiting on Thursday for Iran to convey its response to the latest American proposal to end the war, after public messages from top-ranking officials on both sides suggested a burst of behind-the-scenes diplomatic activity. Business leaders, consumers, politicians, shipping companies and many others around the world have also been watching closely for signs of a breakthrough. The conflict, which has dragged on into a third month and prompted Iran and the United States to implement rival blockades around the Strait of Hormuz, has choked off a major oil transit route, wreaking havoc on global supply chains and causing energy prices to spike. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said late Wednesday that his government was reviewing an American response to a 14-point Iranian proposal to end the war and would give its response to Pakistan, a key mediator. Neither Tehran nor Washington has said what the U.S. response entails. “The exchange of messages through the Pakistani intermediary is ongoing, and reviews of the exchanged texts are continuing,” Mr. Baghaei told IRIB, Iran’s state broadcaster. Earlier in the day, another Iranian official had dismissed a reported proposal to end the war as a “list of American wishes.” In a sign of further diplomatic activity on Thursday, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, held a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart, according to brief statements from both ministries. Hours earlier, a spokesman for Pakistan’s foreign ministry said that Islamabad was optimistic about a deal, while declining to elaborate on what it would include. “We expect an agreement sooner rather than later,” the spokesman, Tahir Andrabi, told reporters. President Trump, after threatening more attacks, said on Wednesday that there had been “very good talks” with Iran, adding: “We’re in good shape, and now we’re doing well, and we have to get what we have to get.” Earlier in the day, Mr. Trump had issued a new ultimatum to Iran, threatening to restart attacks “at a much higher level and intensity” if Iran reneged on apparent concessions. He did not elaborate on what those were. The mixed signals came a day after Mr. Trump abruptly paused a new U.S. military effort to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz, citing “great progress” in talks with Tehran. The uncertainty did little to ease concerns about the strait, the key oil and gas shipping route that Iranian forces effectively closed in retaliation after the United States and Israel began the war in late February. In the absence of any peace deal, the two sides held down a shaky cease-fire despite a standoff over the strait, with both claiming control of the waterway - NYT

• Airline officials warned that fares will surge further if the Iran war does not end soon. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hit oil supplies, doubling the cost of jet fuel. US domestic flight prices were up 21% year-on-year in March, while AirAsia’s chief likened the fallout for the air travel sector to widespread shutdowns during the pandemic. The increase in costs is yet to hit bookings, but passengers are being choosier about destinations. Europe — which is close to tipping past a key fuel-supply threshold — has seen similar price increases, and thousands of flights have been cancelled. Airlines are bracing for more pain after the EU said they must reimburse passengers for those cancellations. Meanwhile, Dubai’s recently buoyant tourist sector has been devastated: Hotel occupancy was at 80% in February, but has fallen to 10% now, according to Moody’s. In total, global airlines have cut about 2 million seats from their capacity for May, the Financial Times reported - Semafor

An outbreak of hantavirus on board a cruise ship in the South Atlantic is not the start of a pandemic, the UN health agency has said. Maria van Kerkhove, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the World Health Organization (WHO), told a news briefing that it was not the same situation as six years ago with Covid-19, because hantavirus spreads through “close, intimate contact”. Health authorities are racing to trace dozens of people who have recently disembarked from the Dutch vessel MV Hondius. On Thursday, the WHO said that overall, five of eight suspected cases of hantavirus had been confirmed. Three people have died, including a 69-year-old Dutch woman, who had the virus. Her Dutch husband and a German woman also died, and their cases are being investigated. Hantavirus typically spreads from rodents - but in the latest outbreak the transmission between people was documented for the first time, the WHO said. The luxury cruise, operated by Oceanwide Expeditions, began its journey on 1 April in Ushuaia in southern Argentina, and is due to arrive soon in Spain’s Canary Islands. About 150 passengers and crew from 28 countries are reported to have initially been aboard the vessel, but dozens disembarked on the island of St Helena on 24 April. At Thursday’s news briefing, WHO’s Maria van Kerkhove said “this is not Covid, this is not influenza, it spreads very, very differently” - BBC

Former Chinese defence ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu were both sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve over graft charges, state news agency Xinhua reported, underscoring the severity of the purge in the military. Past reports in Xinhua said Li had been suspected of receiving “huge sums of money” in bribes as well as bribing others, and an investigation found he “did not fulfil political responsibilities” and “sought personnel benefits for himself and others”. An investigation launched into Wei in 2023 found that he had accepted “a huge amount of money and valuables” in bribes and “helped others gain improper benefits in personnel arrangements”, Xinhua reported in 2024, adding that his actions were “extremely serious in nature, with a highly detrimental impact and tremendous harm”. A death sentence with reprieve in China, also known as a suspended death sentence, is typically commuted to life imprisonment if the offender commits no crimes during the period of reprieve. After the commutation, they will be imprisoned for life without the possibility of further commutation or parole, Xinhua said. It added that both men were also stripped of their political rights for life, and all of their personal property will be confiscated - CNA

Russia’s Foreign Ministry is urging foreign governments and international organizations to evacuate their staff from Kyiv, warning of “inevitable” retaliatory strikes on the city if Ukrainian attacks against Russia this week disrupt annual Victory Day celebrations. In a video message released Wednesday night, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow issued a formal notice to governments and organizations with a presence in the Ukrainian capital “strongly urging” preemptive evacuations due to the high probability of Russian strikes should Ukraine follow through on what she described as “criminal, terrorist designs” on May 9. “Russian diplomatic missions abroad are currently informing their host countries and international organizations of this notice,” Zakharova said. “It is not something to be ignored. It must be taken very, very seriously.” The warning comes amid rival and at times confusing ceasefire proposals from both Russia and Ukraine. Russia, as in past years, initially announced it would unilaterally observe a ceasefire on May 8-9. Ukraine later responded by proposing its own ceasefire for May 5-6. Those ceasefire announcements appear largely symbolic, with both sides signaling they do not intend to observe the other’s truce. Russia has also threatened strikes on central Kyiv if Ukraine ignores its ceasefire. Ukraine has already accused Moscow of violating the ceasefire it announced for Wednesday after several people were killed in Russian attacks across the country. For Russia, this week’s ceasefire is widely seen as an effort to shield Victory Day celebrations from any disruption. Moscow is set to hold its annual military parade, though the event has been scaled back and, for the first time in nearly two decades, will not feature military vehicles because of the ongoing threat of Ukrainian drone attacks. Authorities are also tightening mobile internet restrictions in Moscow and other cities. Russia’s Digital Development Ministry said Thursday that mobile internet will be shut down in Moscow on May 9, and only Wi-Fi and home internet connections will work - Moscow Times

Russia & Trump Allies Target Separatism in Canada’s Oil-Rich Province of Alberta

A new report warns that both Russian covert operatives and pro-Trump American actors are actively amplifying Alberta separatism in an effort to fracture Canadian unity - even as Prime Minister Mark Carney has recently downplayed foreign interference concerns during diplomatic trips to China and India.

The report, released Wednesday by DisinfoWatch and partner organizations, traces a fake website - albertaseparatist.com - to Storm-1516, a Russian influence network linked to the St. Petersburg troll farm that meddled in the 2016 U.S. election. According to CBC News, the site appeared weeks after last year’s federal election and ran articles like “The case for sovereignty over statehood” before being taken down.

Russia’s state-linked Pravda News Network has posted 67 articles about Alberta or the “51st state” since December - nearly five times its coverage of Ontario. On the American side, pro-Trump influencers and officials have openly celebrated separatism talk, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking favourably about it on television. A third interference strand - AI-generated “slopaganda” videos - was traced by CBC/Radio-Canada to Dutch economic opportunists.

This new report describes this third interference branch as “economic opportunists.” It says: “While motives and methods differ, impacts are similar: normalize separation, amplify distrust, portray Canada as internally divided and politically unstable, and create uncertainty that could deter international investment.”

The report stresses that Alberta’s political grievances are real and legitimate. The danger, its authors say, is foreign exploitation of those grievances to distort public debate and destabilize Canada’s image internationally.

What makes the warning especially striking is Canada’s broader posture toward Russia: it remains the only G7 nation that has not expelled a single Russian diplomat since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While Canada’s G7 partners have collectively expelled hundreds, Global Affairs Canada appears to have regarded its Russian diplomatic contingent as posing little threat - a stance that critics say looks increasingly hard to defend.

With Premier Danielle Smith eying an October 19 referendum, researchers are warning of a major disinformation surge in the months ahead - including false claims about vote integrity and non-citizen fraud, CBC reported. “We are in for one hell of a bumpy ride,” said lead author Marcus Kolga of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

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World Briefing Hot Take 🔥

Ted Turner didn’t just build a television network. He changed the rhythm of global news forever.

I still remember my late brother Roman beckoning my to the television set in June 1980 to tell me there was now a 24-hour news channel. For a family of news junkies, CNN felt revolutionary. Suddenly, the world didn’t wait for the evening broadcast anymore.

And during moments like the Gulf War, CNN proved that journalism could be immediate, global and deeply human all at once.

Years later, I would become part of that world myself - as a contributor to CNN Opinion, and as a regular commentator across both CNN International and CNN Domestic, a role I continue to this day. I’ve appeared on the network hundreds of times commenting on wars, disasters, elections, pandemic outbreaks and geopolitical crises from around the globe.

During the downing of MH17 over eastern Ukraine, CNN became one of the central windows through which the world tried to understand the horror unfolding in real time. I was on daily as the spokesperson of first responders from the Organization Security and Cooperation in Europe. And in the first weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, CNN did what it does best: deploy scores of media workers, journalists and anchors to Lviv (where a pop-up bureau was established) and Kyiv.

Over the years, I also had the privilege of seeing the operation from the inside - working alongside some of the finest producers, correspondents and executives in the business. Through HUMNEWS, founded by former CNN Vice President Joy DiBenedetto, I worked closely with many former CNN professionals who wanted to refocus the news camera on the 117 countries that rarely receive sustained mainstream media attention.

During my years with UNICEF, I was even trained by CNN crews in satellite communications, field production and video transmission work in difficult environments - ahead of a deployment to Myanmar. (I never met Ted Turner, sadly, but I did meet his ex-wife, Jane Fonda - where else, but in the ‘green room’ at CNN’s New York headquarters).

Ted Turner built a newsroom culture that believed journalism mattered - and that the world deserved access to information in real time, wherever history was unfolding.

Today, that vision feels more fragile.

Budget cuts. Commercial pressures. Merger speculation. Political attacks on the press. A growing public distrust of journalism itself. At a time when authoritarianism is rising and journalists are being threatened, jailed and killed around the world, the loss of figures like Turner feels especially profound.

He understood something many leaders still do not: a strong, independent press is not a luxury. It is infrastructure for democracy.

One Ted Turner quote has always stayed with me: “I didn’t have any upper limits to how far we could go. “

He lived that philosophy. And whether people loved CNN or criticized it, the truth is simple: the world’s information landscape would look radically different without him.

News Briefs
Ted Turner, the media maverick and philanthropist who founded CNN, a pioneering 24-hour network that revolutionized television news, died peacefully Wednesday, surrounded by his family, according to a news release from Turner Enterprises. He was 87.

The Ohio-born Atlanta businessman, nicknamed “The Mouth of the South” for his outspoken nature, built a media empire that encompassed cable’s first superstation and popular channels for movies and cartoons, plus professional sports teams like the Atlanta Braves.

Turner was also an internationally known yachtsman; a philanthropist who founded the United Nations Foundation; an activist who sought the worldwide elimination of nuclear weapons; and a conservationist who became one of the foremost landowners in the United States. He played a crucial role in reintroducing bison to the American west. He even created the Captain Planet cartoon to educate kids about the environment.

But it was his audacious vision to deliver news from around the world in real time, at all hours, that really made him famous - once his idea finally took off.

In 1991, Turner was named Time magazine’s Man of the Year for “influencing the dynamic of events and turning viewers in 150 countries into instant witnesses of history.”

Turner eventually sold his networks to Time Warner and later exited the business, but continued to express pride in CNN, calling it the “greatest achievement” of his life.

Just over a month before his 80th birthday in 2018, Turner revealed that he had Lewy body dementia, a progressive brain disorder. In early 2025, Turner was hospitalized with a mild case of pneumonia before recovering at a rehabilitation facility.

Read CNN’s full report on Ted Turner here

In 2003, Turner spoke with Mike Wallace about his life and career accomplishments. Watch the CBS 60 Minutes feature here

The president of the Canary Islands, Fernando Clavijo, has rejected the Spanish government’s decision to allow the Dutch MV Hondius vessel, which has a hantavirus outbreak on board, to dock in the islands. A number of passengers have been infected, three have died. “I cannot allow [the boat] to enter the Canaries,” Clavijo told Onda Cero radio in an interview. He added: “This decision is not based on any technical criteria and nor have we been given enough information.” Clavijo, who is currently in Brussels, said he wanted to meet urgently with prime minister Pedro Sánchez in Madrid in order to discuss the matter. The boat is expected to reach the Canary Islands in the next few days. In Switzerland, a man in hospital has been found to have the virus after travelling on the cruise ship. Hantavirus refers to a strain of viruses carried by rodents - it’s transmitted to humans through inhalation of airborne particles from dried droppings - BBC

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said Wednesday that his government was reviewing an American plan to end the war, hours after President Trump put pressure on Iran to agree to a deal to end the war and renewed threats, fueling uncertainty around the negotiations. Mr. Baghaei said that Iran had yet to respond to that proposal. “After finalizing its considerations, Iran will convey its views to the Pakistani side,” he said in an interview with the semiofficial news agency ISNA. Earlier in the day, another Iranian official had dismissed a reported proposal to end the war as a “list of American wishes.” The mixed messages came a day after Mr. Trump abruptly paused a U.S. military operation to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, citing what he said was “great progress” in talks. In public, there has been little sign that the weeks of diplomacy aimed at reaching a deal to reopen the vital waterway and end the war were bearing fruit. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, Mr. Trump said he would end the war and offer safe passage for vessels through the strait if Iran “agrees to give what has been agreed,” without elaborating. “If they don’t agree, the bombing starts,” he threatened, warning that further U.S. attacks would be “at a much higher level and intensity.” The suggestion appeared to contradict the assertion made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday that the war was “over.” - NYT

• Israeli forces have bombed Beirut’s southern suburbs and claim to have assassinated Malek Balou, a commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force. “Israeli warplanes launched an attack, targeting Ghobeiri” in the southern suburbs, Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported, as a loud explosion and extensive damage were reported from the area. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the attack, saying he and Defence Minister Israel Katz had instructed the army to carry out the attack. “Radwan terrorists are responsible for shooting at Israeli settlements and harming [Israeli army] soldiers. No terrorist has immunity – Israel’s long hand will catch every enemy and murderer,” Netanyahu said in a post on Telegram. “We promised to bring security to the residents of the north – this is how we do it and this is how we will continue to do it!” he added. Hezbollah has not yet responded to the Israeli claim - Al Jazeera

• Global energy prices and supplies still have room to get much worse, executives and analysts warned. A “great repricing is underway,” Semafor’s energy editor wrote, as experts raise their forecasts for oil and gas prices — “a sign that the gravity of the situation is finally landing.” Global oil reserves shrank at a record rate in April, and supplies of jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas are poised to plunge in Asia, Africa, and Europe. Even as Washington attempts to safely escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, many companies are adopting a “wait-and-see” approach as fears of attacks persist, a marine insurance executive told Semafor; shipping insurance rates won’t come down until there’s more evidence the escorts can materially improve safety - Semafor

Hospitals Are Being Bombed. The World Has Stopped Caring

Ten years after the UN unanimously condemned attacks on medical facilities in conflict zones, virtually nothing has changed. Hospitals are still being targeted daily in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar and beyond - and the states responsible for enforcing international humanitarian law are either unable or unwilling to act.

That is the damning assessment of Claude Maon, Legal Director for Médecins Sans Frontières, who argues that the problem is no longer the law itself, but the near-total failure to enforce it. Parties to conflict routinely exploit legal loopholes to justify attacks on hospitals, investigations go nowhere, and accountability mechanisms exist largely on paper.

Maon’s prescription is blunt: senior command authorization before any military action near a hospital, zero tolerance enforced down the chain of command, and genuine independence in investigations. “Fewer words and more action,” she writes - warning that without urgent political will, the protections enshrined in the Geneva Conventions are becoming meaningless.

The U.S. State Department completed its reduction-in-force on Tuesday, letting go of 200 to 250 Foreign Service Officers—mostly on domestic posts—and 30 civil service staff, capping over 1,300 layoffs since last summer under Secretary Marco Rubio’s reorganization to cut 15% of staff and prioritize America First diplomacy. The union criticized the timing amid U.S. strikes on Iran and new hiring, while affected officers like Arabic/Persian speaker Gliha called it a slap in the face after years of service. Supporters view it as needed housecleaning to remove redundancies, even as the department plans further cuts and recruits for vacancies.

The residents of Punta Marina, a seaside Italian town, are losing sleep — and their patience — over an unlikely menace: peacocks. A colony that settled in the area a decade ago has since multiplied into a roving, screeching mob of dozens, turning the town’s streets into what one might generously call a “living nature exhibit.” Less generously, residents describe fouled cars, damaged gardens, and the birds’ mating calls piercing the night air. “They disturb at all hours,” complained one bleary-eyed local. “There are people who can’t even sleep.” Not everyone is ruffled. A philosophical minority notes that the birds are beautiful and draw curious tourists — an argument that carries less weight at 3 a.m. when a peacock is announcing its romantic availability outside your window.

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