WAR IN UKRAINE: April 5, 2023

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 406

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spoken by phone with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to discuss fresh EU sanctions on Russia for its war in Ukraine.

  • NATO member states are "ramping up" production of military supplies to ensure the Western alliance can continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia's full-scale invasion, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told RFE/RL in an interview.

  • Finland has become the 31st member of the Nato security alliance, doubling the length of member states' borders with Russia. The Finnish foreign minister handed the accession document to the US secretary of state who declared Finland a member. Then in bright sunshine in front of Nato's gleaming new headquarters, Finland's white-and-blue flag joined a circle of 30 other flags - BBC

  • Thousands of miles from the cities that Russia is bombing in Ukraine, China has been studying the war. In an indirect struggle between two superpowers on the other side of the world, Beijing sees a source of invalu- able lessons on weapons, troop power, intelligence and deterrence that can help it prepare for potential wars of its own. In particular, Chinese military ana- lysts have scrutinized the fighting for in- novations and tactics that could help in a possible clash over Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing wants to absorb and the United States has at times pledged to defend. The war is a “proving ground,” they say, that gives China a chance to learn from successes and failures on both sides. The New York Times examined nearly 100 Chinese research papers and media articles that deliver assessments of the war by Chinese military and weapons-sector analysts. Here is some of what they have covered: With an eye on China’s development of hypersonic missiles, which can be highly maneuverable in flight, they have analyzed how Russia used these weap- ons to destroy an ammunition bunker, a fuel depot and other targets. They have studied how Ukrainian troops used Starlink satellite links to co- ordinate attacks and circumvent Rus- sian efforts to shut down their communi- cations and have warned that China must swiftly develop a similar low-orbit satellite system and devise ways to knock out rival ones. They have argued that President Vla- dimir V. Putin of Russia deterred West- ern powers from directly intervening in Ukraine by brandishing nuclear weap- ons, a view that could encourage expan- sion of China’s own nuclear weapons program. Ukraine has offered “a new under- standing of a future possible world war,” Maj. Gen. Meng Xiangqing, a professor at the National Defense University in Beijing, wrote in the Guangming Daily newspaper, in January. He also wrote: “Russia’s strategy of nuclear deterrence certainly played a role in ensuring that NATO under the United States’ leader- ship did not dare to directly enter the war” NYT


Required reading…

How to keep Western tech out of Russian weapons

One prong of the Western response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been the designation of strong sanctions and export controls to punish Russian aggression and limit the Kremlin’s ability to effectively wage war. However, numerous recent reports have revealed that some Russian weapons continue to utilize components ostensibly coming from Western countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.

A joint March 2023 International Partnership for Human Rights and Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO) report found Western components critical in the construction and maintenance of drones, missiles, and communications complexes in weapons used by Russia in Ukraine. Also in March, the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center convened a panel of experts for a virtual event to discuss how to stem the flow of dual-use technology to Russia. Moderated by Ambassador John Herbst, panelists described how sanctioned Western tech gets to Russia and offered concrete recommendations to better implement and enforce export bans on Moscow.

Panelists noted that companies and manufacturers could simply be unaware their products are entering the Russian market. Though distributors may believe they are selling dual-use components to non-sanctioned consumer markets, many components are resold through secondary markets such as Hong Kong or Turkey and end up in Russia. Urging more due diligence, Olena Tregub, executive director of NAKO, explained, “if a company has a client from Turkey, for example, it should ask if the product is for Russia. They should study the supply chain.”

Read the full Atlantic Council article here

Michael Bociurkiw