Covid-19: A “Forest Fire Looking for Human Wood to Burn" - Infectious Disease Expert
Pedestrians in the United Kingdom just before a harsh lockdown is imposed in many regions due to surging Covid-19 case numbers.
With Covid-19 cases surging in many regions and with vaccine availability still a long way off for developing nations, the disease is a ‘forest fire’ looking for human wood to burn - with likely well over 65-75% of the world’s populations has yet to be infected.
Dr. Michael Osterholm, a member of President-elect Joe Biden’s transition coronavirus task force and a top American infectious disease expert, told the Global Impact podcast that unless vulnerable populations receive vaccines as soon as possible that Covid-19 cases “are only going to continue to increase substantially.”
He cited a resurgence in cases in regions which had earlier made progress in flattening the curve - including Europe, North Asia, Australasia. Developing countries in South America and Africa are seeing major increases in cases as well.
“This year the ultimate love that you can provide to your family is not unknowingly taking this virus home to mom and dad, and grandpa and grandma….Bringing that virus home can be tragic ”
“As a pandemic we have really a whole series of mini many epidemics going on by region, by country - and in some cases like the United States - by state. There are all moving forward at the same time. So to summarize, these are the very best of times, and the very worst of times for the world.
“It’s the best of times that we are now seeing the light at he end of the tunnel for these vaccines. But it’s the worst of times in the sense that this is the worst by far that this pandemic has been since its inception late last year.”
Dr Osterholm pointed to cases surging substantially in some 40 states, and millions of people travelling during the ongoing holiday season.
His remarks, made Friday, appear consistent with a prognosis made by President-elect Joe Biden today- saying in a nationwide address: “Our darkest days in the battle against COVID are ahead of us, not behind us.”
As of December 22, the United States has surpassed the grim milestone of over 18-million cases and 321,300 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. Globally, cases are nearing a staggering 80-million and deaths surpassing 1.7-million - with the US being, by far, the world’s Number One hotspot.
The Los Angeles Times reported that in California alone, nearly 2900 people have died of Covid-19 in just the past two weeks.
Two vaccines have now been given emergency authorization in the United States - most recently the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine and the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. By early this week, more than 614,000 Americans have receive the life-saving jab, but most will have to wait months for theirs.
The vaccines are being made widely available in many other countries - including in the United Kingdom where a much more transmissible variant of the virus is in circulation.
Dr. Osterholm said two things need to happen to help curtail the virus. One is that people who can need to “stop swapping air” between themselves as respiratory droplets are the main routes of transmission for the coronavirus. He added: “What you also have to have is the realization that this problem is real. Right here in the United States we have many, many locations where people still challenge the very notion that this pandemic is real. Or if it is real what is it actually doing to us. “
With people still throwing holiday parties and travel taking place in huge numbers “that tells me we are somehow missing the message to the public this is your Covid Christmas….it’s not like last year and it won’t be like next year hopefully with the vaccines.
“But this year the ultimate love that you can provide to your family is not unknowingly taking this virus home to mom and dad, and grandpa and grandma….Bringing that virus home can be tragic.”
Asked to respond to comments that no government can claim they did not know a pandemic was coming, Dr. Osterholm said: “The world was not prepared for this…we got caught flat-footed, not prepared. Hopefully, however, this will be the ultimate moment for the world to learn that we as human are still very vulnerable to these infectious agents. And that a microbe that is somewhere in the world today could be everywhere tomorrow and it could do what is happening right now. We do need to have a much different approach to preparedness and to stockpiles. Even to the extent of doing the vaccine research that we need so that we can anticipate pandemics in the future, more coronaviruses.'“
Click here to listen to the full interview
Travellers in the arrivals area at Miami International Airport just before Christmas