Coronavirus Pandemic: Latest Update (May 6, 2020)
After weeks of lockdowns, isolation and economic dislocation, mental health professionals are raising the alarm on a surge in demand for treatment services - and the lack of investment for prevention.
As we enter month four since the world first became familiar with the terms ‘novel coronavirus’ and ‘Covid-19,’ there is plenty of news and perspectives to share but the bottom line is that we don’t appear to be acting as a coordinated global community in order to beat this pandemic to the ground.
But the most significant development comes with a mix of good news and bad news - and that is the re-opening of societies and economies after prolonged shutdowns. Ironically, the country where the virus originated - China - has powered back up to the point where cities such as Wuhan have become congested again.
In the United States, the current epicenter of the pandemic with over 1.2 million cases and more than 73,000 deaths, the White House had delegated the task of re-opening the nation’s economy to the nation’s governors - as long as they adhere to Coronavirus Task Force guidelines. Many governors - seemingly cheered on by President Donald Trump - are ignoring the guidelines and several mayors and counties are ignoring the governors - meaning the nation has become a dangerous patchwork quilt of min-economies.
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who came to power on the coattails of Donald Trump, was encouraged and then admonished by Trump, when he moved ahead with a controversial May 2 reopening of hair and nail salons, tattoo parlours, spas and bowling alleys. In addition, restaurants could restart dine-in service starting April 27. But many establishments - including the owners of more than 120 of the state’s most popular restaurants - said they won’t be re-opening their doors just yet. All in all, it added up to the nation’s most aggressive reopening timeline, CNN reported.
Especially worrisome is that new projections, based on modelling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now, the New York Times said.
Said the Times: “The numbers underscore a sobering reality: The United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks to try slowing the spread of the virus, but reopening the economy will make matters worse.”
Away from Covid-19 there are growing concerns that, amid fears of contracting the virus, US patients are opting to tough it out despite symptoms of a serious illness. People being fearful of getting care. That had led to some hospitals having zero procedural income, leading to massive layoffs of healthcare workers in places like Washington state.
“The numbers underscore a sobering reality: The United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks to try slowing the spread of the virus, but reopening the economy will make matters worse.”
A surge in cases is likely being watched with concern from governments on America’s southern and northern borders. The closure of the US-Canada border to all but essential traffic is due to expire on May 21, but Premier John Horgan of British Columbia said May 6 that until the curve flattens, don’t expect an opening in the “foreseeable future.”
What is more, Canadian officials, under pressure to plug the flow of illegal firearms smuggled in from the US, could see this time as good as any to trial new border measures in order to improve interdiction (a topic raised in my most recent CNN Opinion OpEd).
Countries in conflict and with weaker health systems
A father looks over his ailing son in a healthcare facility in Papua New Guinea in 2019. Credit: UNICEF PNG
Elsewhere, the radar of the World Health Organization (WHO) is being aimed at a handful of countries of concern, where caseloads and deaths are rapidly increasing. At a press briefing on May 5, its executive director, Dr. Michael Ryan, said there is concern about Afghanistan, Sudan, Palestine (which has had a 100 percent increase in deaths in the past week), Yemen, Peru, Ecuador, Russia and Haiti.
Dr. Carissa Etienne at the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) singled out Haiti as being prime for an “impending humanitarian crisis” due to poor water and sanitation, congested living conditions, widespread poverty, a weak health system and cross-border traffic from the neighbouring Dominican Republic.
Public health experts are keeping a close eye on the African continent, which has a relatively low number of cases for its size and population - at latest count, more than 52,000 cases and around 2,000 deaths. But the death toll could surge to 190,000 if Covid-19 isn’t properly controlled, WHO said May 6.
The three adjacent countries hit hard by the Ebola outbreak is of particular concern: Liberia, Sierra Leon and Guinea. Although many African countries, benefitting from intense surveillance and best practices built up from past outbreaks, have experienced very low infection rates, some have had a doubling of cases.
Neglect in the healthcare system in Russia adds to pandemic pressure
Vladimir Putin speaks to Russian regional governors on a video call about the coronavirus pandemic. Source: Wilson Center
Meanwhile in Russia, where hundreds of hospitals have been closed over the past decade or so, cases continue to skyrocket at an alarming rate. The country now has moved ahead of Iran and China, and with more than 166,000 cases becomes the country with the seventh-largest caseload of Covid-19. Russian media has begun to report on the mysterious cases of medical doctors “falling” from hospital windows. And frontline health workers who have dared to speak out on being forced to work under dangerous conditions and about the lack of personal protective equipment and other shortcomings have been harassed by police.
“This is really about the destruction of our healthcare system and of course this means that it is very difficult to treat in such conditions a lot of patients with coronavirus,” head of a doctors’ union Anastasia Vasilyeva told CNN’s Matthew Chance.
All-in-all the deplorable situation in Russia has become a huge embarrassment for President Vladimir Putin, who was forced to postpone not only a referendum to extend his term of office but also the traditional May 9 Victory Day military parade. While the Kremlin has a $165-billion rainy day fund in hand, it does not appear any of that will go to ailing small- and medium-sized business and instead will be fought over by powerful oligarchs, said panelists at a Frontline Club panel on May 5.
With oil prices at historic lows - oil and gas provided 40% of federal budget income last year, mostly via extraction and export taxes - and with Ukraine-related sanctions biting, Russia faces a bleak economic situation in the next months.
“The steep fall in revenues has grave implications for the government budget at a time of spiralling demands for spending to mitigate the COVID-19 health emergency and the impacts of economic shutdown,” says Oxford Analytica in their latest intelligence brief
Though some analysts say that could temper Putin’s desire to stage more international adventurism. And if you are wondering if the chaos might send hoards of protesters into the streets, most analysts say they have their doubts, especially with the virus raging and with lockdown measures in effect.
Empty skies
Delta jets parked at Atlanta’s international airport, usually one of the busiest in the world.
Meanwhile, companies large and small around the world continue to suffer the effect of prolonged lockdowns. The airline industry appears to be taking a bloodbath, with normal travel not resuming for months or even years to come. Even if an airline operator wanted to resume operations tomorrow, they would be faced with depressed consumer demand - meaning travellers too afraid to fly - and a host of border closures and quarantines.
A sign of the times? My local airport has lost its designation of ‘international’ after Alaska Airlines pulled out and today just four flights were scheduled to arrive, all of them regional.
“We’re now living through the darkest period ever in the history of commercial aviation”
Earlier this week, Air Canada CEO didn’t mince words when he described the impact of the pandemic on the sector. “We’re now living through the darkest period ever in the history of commercial aviation, significantly worse than 9/11, SARS and the 2008 financial crisis,” Calin Rovinescu said on a conference call with analysts Monday.
Even the world’s most profitable airlines have not been spared: Singapore Airlines has only 20 out of 200 jets still flying passengers, with most parked at the city state’s international airport or in Australia. Some carriers, taking advantage of a huge upsurge in cargo traffic, have wisely converted passenger aircraft into all-cargo.
With airlines realizing that freight rates have skyrocketed amid the crisis, and with the collapse of oil prices, it makes sense to operate aircraft by loading passenger seats with cargo - or getting rid of the seats all together to accommodate supply chains needs.
Some gig economy companies, such as AirBnb and Uber, seemed at first to be able to ride out the economic turbulence. AirBnb, for example, announced a new cleaning policy for hosts and had even introduced new online activities for members. But earlier this week the company announced layoffs of 1900 workers, or 25 percent of its workforce.
In an online discussion I initiated on A Small World, most power travellers said they would take a very cautious approach to going back to the skies, especially if that means excruciatingly long checks at airports.
Said Paul Mason from the United Kingdom: “As to where and when we’re allowed is a bit of a guessing game…along with the many other restrictions being talked about (airport testing or temp checks, 4hr check-in times, Perspex dividers on beaches etc) will make travel in general more hassle which might put some people off and they’ll opt to holiday in their own country instead. Especially older generations or families. So domestic tourism will boom.”
A recent survey by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) found that 60% of people questioned would wait for two months before booking flights after the coronavirus is contained - 40% said they would wait for at least six months. Some experts predict plexiglass dividers on beaches, extensive screenings at airports, blocked middle seats on airplanes and cabin crew in full protective gear.
As for low cost airlines, even with earnest pledges from airlines such as Southwest to block middle seats and deep clean aircraft, with a business model that depends on packed aircraft and quick turnaround times, how can they survive?
Hypocrisy among those who’s job it is to tell us what’s best
Although the incident was perfect fodder for the British tabloid press, the resignation of the UK’s chief Covid-19 crisis scientist prompted a mix of chuckles, disgust and bewilderment.
After being caught breaking his own lockdown rules in order to secretly meet his married lover, Professor Neil Ferguson, also known as ‘Professor Lockdown’ and whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lockdown Britain, reigned from his advisory position Tuesday night. Ironically, the professor had himself contracted Covid-19 but had since recovered.
Professor Ferguson wouldn’t be the first public health official to be forced to step down. In early April, Scotland's chief medical officer Catherine Calderwood resigned for breaking the rules after twice visiting her second home.
And in Israel, Yaakov Litzman, (who I’ve met) who has held the post of deputy health minister and health minister almost continuously since 2009, and who contracted the virus himself, offered his resignation last week. A member of the ultra-Orthodox community, he faced heavy criticism for his handling of the coronavirus crisis. In its early stages, he excluded the ultra-Orthodox community from the country’s social distancing regulations, allowing public ritual bath houses and synagogues to remain open, even promising that the messiah would come and put an end to the epidemic.
According to the widely-read Haaretz newspaper, Litzman reportedly did not adhere to the public safety guidelines that his own ministry issued. He reportedly prayed in a group, refused to have his temperature taken and hid the results of the epidemiological test performed on his phone.”
Even Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came under fire over the Easter holidays for breaking stay-at-home rules and crossing a provincial boundary to go visit his wife and children at an official residence in Quebec.
And then there is the White House leadership: Vice-President Mike Pence drew significant flack for visiting the Mayo Clinic in Cleveland without a mask - even though the facility requires it. That incident was followed a few days later with President Trump visiting a Honeywell mask factory in Arizona (which is by the way a swing state), also without a mask. Pence later said he should have worn a mask when everyone else was.
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