Ukraine Sinks to Extremely Vulnerable Position in Covid-19 Battle

When it comes to the vulnerability of its population to Covid-19, Ukraine finds itself in a very unenviable situation - an Oxford Analytica analysis shows.

Among peer countries, the share of the population vaccinated with the first dose is among the lowest in the world - and the mortality risk without social distancing measures is extremely high. In addition, its median age is relatively high.

Currently Ukraine has a vaccination rate of only 1.9/100 people (822,196 doses) - less than Zimbabwe, Botswana and Ghana, according to a New York Times data base.

And yet, from May 1, Kyiv has been easing strict quarantine restrictions - with public transport returning to full operations, and shopping malls, markets, fairs, cafes, bars and restaurants resuming normal operation. On May 5, educational institutions also re-opened. Ukrainians have also returned to international travel in large numbers, including to countries which are in some form of lockdown.

There are fears that the recent Easter celebrations, when social distancing appeared to be low, will trigger another spike in cases.

Social distancing protocols were not observed at many church services during last weekend’s Ukrainian Easter celebrations

President Volodymyr Zelensky is among the several public officials in Ukraine who have been sickened by Covid-19. With public trust in the government extremely low, many point the finger at his administration for bungling the pandemic response, which has been slow and uncoordinated. The government waited many months before placing vaccine orders, leading to the current dire situation.

(In fairness, wealthy G7 nations aren’t in a position to bathe themselves in glory when it comes to vaccine procurement: in Canada fewer than three percent of citizens are fully vaccinated. According to Bloomberg, jurisdictions with the highest incomes are getting vaccinated about 25 times faster than those with the lowest).

Public events - such as this government-supported conference - have resumed in Kyiv

Multiple U.S. and Ukrainian sources cited by Politico say Zelensky’s administration has been pressing Washington for help obtaining vaccines since December. But with the Biden administration prioritizing the immunization of its own citizens the ability to share vaccine stockpiles is limited for the moment.

Ukraine has among the highest rates of vaccine hesitancy in Europe, leading to measles and polio outbreaks in recent years.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said on the 1+1 TV channel that more than 80,000 people can be vaccinated per day. But according to Bloomberg, the latest vaccination rate is 17,132 doses per day, on average. At this pace, it will take another 9.9 years to cover 75% of the population.

According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Ukrainian hospitals are overwhelmed with coronavirus patients. The number of hospitalizations over April has increased dramatically and many medical facilities are suffering from an acute oxygen shortage. The situation is so acute that hospital administrators have to scramble to find oxygen sources all over Ukraine.

The oxygen situation appears to be victim of chronic under-investment and mismanagement of the public health system. There have been two fatal hospital oxygen explosions in February alone - killing four patients and a young doctor.

On Friday, Shmyhal said Ukraine would be donating oxygen to hard-hit India.

A woman wearing a white face mask in a shop in Odesa. Photo: Maria Novikova/Scopio

As of 01:00 on May 8, Ukraine had the 16th-highest Covid-19 caseload in the world - with 2,160,809 cases and almost 48,000 deaths (though numbers are believed to be higher due to under-reporting or mis-reporting). An adaptive nationwide quarantine currently in place has been extended until 30 June 2021.

The country has administered more than 750,000 doses to date, enough to vaccinate just 375,000 of Ukraine’s 44-million people. Most came from a batch of 12 million AstraZeneca/Covishield doses that India’s Serum Institute sent in March.

Last month, Ukraine approved the use of more than 200,000 doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine it received in March, Politico reported. It is also expected to receive an additional 16 million vaccine doses from the international but badly-underfunded COVAX facility.

Kyiv has also recently finalised a deal with Pfizer for 20 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccine.

Past research had shown strong hesitancy among Ukrainians for Indian vaccines and a high preference for those manufactured in Europe. It is unclear what the take-up will be for vaccines from Sinovac, one of the two available for export from China.

Beijing has been using vaccine diplomacy to strengthen relations with several countries - either donating doses or distributing them on a commercial basis on favourable terms. So far it has successfully shipped free vaccines to 69 countries and sealed commercial orders with 28 others, according to a draft of the manuscript of Digital Pandemic.

Like nearby Serbia, Ukraine is also a target of Chinese vaccine diplomacy. Beijing is eager to embrace Ukraine for its agricultural products and aerospace engine technology.

Commuters in Odesa. Photo: Marta Novikova/Scopio