WORLD BRIEFING: November 4, 2023
Israel - Hamas War
Israel’s war against Hamas has entered its 29th day, three weeks after Hamas killed at least 1,300 Israelis and wounded more than 3,300 in an assault. In the Gaza Strip, the Hamas-controlled health ministry reports that more than 9,227 Palestinians have been killed. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are holding hostage more than 242 soldiers and civilians, including foreign nationals - Haaretz
Some 350,000-400,000 people remain in northern Gaza, US envoy David Satterfield has said. Israel is focusing its offensive in this part of the enclave and has urged civilians in the area to move to the south. The Israeli military is also carrying out strikes in the south and the UN says no part of Gaza is safe - BBC
Israel has stepped up attacks in northern Gaza amid an ongoing war against Hamas as it spurned U.S. calls for a "humanitarian pause" in the Palestinian territory. The Israeli military tightened its siege on Gaza City, as part of its expanded ground operation and continued airstrikes in the region. In the north on Friday afternoon, an Israeli airstrike hit near the front of Al Shifa hospital, the largest hospital in Gaza City, as a convoy of ambulances was transporting seriously injured people to Gaza's southern border for treatment in Egypt, according to the head of the hospital - NPR
The U.S. has called for a temporary "humanitarian pause" to enable more aid to enter Gaza and for hostages to be released, though Blinken and other U.S. officials have fallen short of a demand for a full cease-fire. “We provided Israel advice that only the best of friends can offer on how to minimize civilian deaths while still achieving its objectives of finding and finishing Hamas terrorists and their infrastructure of violence," Blinken said. In his own remarks, Netanyahu rejected calls for a pause, saying Israel's military forces will continue its operations in Gaza until Hamas is defeated and the kidnapped hostages are returned. Israel's military says Hamas is currently holding 241 hostages - NPR
The foreign ministries of Egypt and Jordan have conveyed that Arab states will present a unified position to the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken on Saturday, stating that Israel must immediately cease its attacks in the Gaza Strip. Blinken is set to meet today in Oman with the foreign ministers of Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Jordan has also reported that the Secretary-General of the Arab League, Hussein Al-Sheikh, will also participate in the summit - Haaretz
Israeli and Ukrainian officials reveal that the two countries are working on plans for a possible visit to Israel by Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the course of next week.
Elsewhere
The United States is providing additional security assistance to Ukraine, valued at $125m in arms and equipment + $300m in funds to strengthen air defenses. This includes more NASAMS, HIMARS, TOW missiles, & more. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a Tweet: “To date, Ukraine has reclaimed more than half the territory Russia seized since 2022. Arms and equipment announced today as part of continued U.S. assistance will help sustain Ukraine’s battlefield needs.”
Rescue workers in Nepal began digging through the rubble of collapsed houses with their hands on Saturday, searching for survivors after the country's worst earthquake in eight years killed 137 people and shook buildings as far away as New Delhi - Reuters
Fewer Ukrainians who fled abroad at the start of the full-scale invasion have returned home than forecasts predicted, the National Bank said in its inflation report for October 2023, published on Nov. 2. While over 6 million people fled Ukraine during the full-scale Russian invasion, only one million have come back, according to UN figures. Between June 2023 and September 2023, the number of Ukrainians abroad only fell by around 100,000 people. The number of people returning to Ukraine is "less than expected," the National Bank reported, citing high security risks as a reason. In fact, there are likely more Ukrainians abroad than a year ago, as "due to the increased risks of attacks on the energy infrastructure, some citizens are likely to spend the heating season abroad." As a result, there will be an estimated 200,000 more Ukrainians living outside the country at the end of 2023 than at the end of 2022 - Kyiv Independent
The former husband of the once-powerful, now-disgraced Uzbek socialite Gulnara Karimova has been arrested in Hong Kong and remains in custody, according to people familiar with the matter. But what exactly was Rustam Madumarov, who was first convicted by an Uzbek court in 2014 on embezzlement and tax-fraud charges, doing in China? Madumarov reportedly traveled to Hong Kong at the behest of high-ranking officials at Uzbekistan's State Security Service to try and access frozen bank accounts linked to Karimova, according to four people who spoke to RFE/RL's Uzbek Service on condition of anonymity. The officials are subordinate to Otabek Umarov, who is married to the younger daughter of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoev. The details of the arrest warrant, including who it was issued by, were not immediately clear.
Required reading..
Gaza war will hit non-oil Middle East economies hard - Oxford Analytica
The Gaza war has cut tourist numbers and pushed up energy costs, negatively affecting fiscal and current accounts
On October 30, 300 Israeli economists urged the government to divert funds from non-essential spending to areas that aid recovery from the Gaza war. The conflict will damage the economic prospects of Israel, Egypt and Jordan, even without a major regional escalation. The Gulf Arab states, Iraq and Algeria will benefit from the risk premium on hydrocarbon prices. The already dire Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian economies will deteriorate further.
What next
Israel has sufficient financial buffers to cope with the economic effects of the crisis, which will likely include a recession and significant capital flight. Egypt and Jordan are highly vulnerable: they will require extensive financial support from international economic institutions and Gulf donors. Post-war Gaza and the West Bank will be in urgent need of an economic support package, but this would require the creation of new political and administrative frameworks for the Palestinians.