World Briefing: October 19, 2024
At least 33 people have been killed in Israeli air strikes on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, Hamas-run authorities say. Israel has not commented. Israeli forces have been besieging the densely-populated camp in recent weeks, saying it's trying to prevent Hamas fighters from regrouping. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's death this week raised hopes of an end to the war, but Iran's supreme leader says the group will "remain alive". Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu's office says a drone was launched towards the Israeli PM's home in Caesarea, northern Israel, but he wasn't there at the time. Fighting is continuing in Lebanon, where Israel's military says it killed about 60 Hezbollah fighters and destroyed its regional command centre. Hezbollah says it fired rockets at the Israeli city of Haifa and areas to its north - BBC
Context: picking up on what we relayed yesterday regarding the death of Yahya Sinwar. Some Middle Eastern experts are playing down the significance of the Israeli assassination of the Hamas leader, with one saying the organisation will actually emerge leaner and meaner. “Hamas has well-oiled procedures: they’ve got ways to canvas people in jail, ways to canvas people in the West Bank, abroad, Gaza and so on. But there mechanisms have never had to operate under a situation like this. I’ve got to believe that the Hamas that comes out of this will be very, very different - probably leaner and perhaps a little bit meaner” - George Washington University’s Nathan Brown on PBS Newshour
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump visited one of the nation’s only Muslim-majority cities on Friday as the dueling presidential contenders fought for a small but pivotal bloc of Arab American voters in swing-state Michigan. In a rare reference to Israel’s fight against Hamas and Hezbollah, Harris said, “This year has been very difficult, given the scale of death and destruction in Gaza and given the civilian casualties and displacement in Lebanon.” She said the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “can and must be a turning point…Everyone must seize this opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza, bring the hostages home and end the suffering once and for all,” she said. Trump, meanwhile, avoided any specifics about his plans for the Middle East, but he said he didn’t think the Arab American community would vote for Harris “because she doesn’t know what she’s doing.” - AP
The US is willing to provide up to $20bn as part of a G7 loan to Ukraine that will be repaid with profits generated by Russia’s frozen assets, according to three people familiar with the matter. The talks over the loan are accelerating as western officials want to provide funding to Kyiv before the end of the year, conscious that if Donald Trump wins the US election in November, Washington’s aid to Ukraine could be cut off. G7 countries have been locked in months-long negotiations over the structure of the $50bn loan agreed in June, with Washington’s contribution until recently expected to be smaller than initially planned after the EU failed to guarantee that the Russian assets would remain immobilised for at least three years. But US officials on Friday indicated to their G7 counterparts that Washington would provide the full original amount, about $20bn. This would be possible, they said, even if the EU failed to convince Hungary’s premier Viktor Orbán to drop his veto on extending EU sanctions — a condition demanded by Washington. - FT
South Korea's spy agency on Friday confirmed that North Korea has decided to send around 10,000 troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine and has already begun deployment. Following the meeting, the NIS said it has confirmed the "beginning of the North's direct involvement" in the Ukraine war, after having learned that troops from the North were moved aboard Russian Navy transport ships. The NIS also said it has confirmed that Pyongyang began transporting its special forces troops to Russia from Oct. 8 to 13. According to the NIS, approximately 1,500 North Korean soldiers were transported during the first phase, using four amphibious landing ships and three escort vessels owned by Russia. These troops were moved from areas near the North's cities of Chongjin, Hamhung and Musudan to Vladivostok. The NIS said it expects that a second phase of transport will occur soon. A Seoul intelligence source said North Korea is expected to deploy a total of 12,000 troops, including those from the country's most elite military units, to the war in Ukraine. North Korean troops deployed to Russia have been stationed across various locations in the Far East, including Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk, where they are currently integrated with Russian military units. According to the Seoul spy agency, they have been issued Russian military uniforms and weapons. Additionally, fake identifications disguising them as locals were also provided, apparently to conceal their participation, by making them appear as part of the Russian forces. Once they complete their adaptation training, they are expected to be sent to the front lines, according to NIS officials. A key piece of evidence offered by the NIS was a photograph of a North Korean soldier taken in Ukraine. The NIS said it used artificial facial recognition technology on the image and identified the individual as a North Korean missile technician who had accompanied North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on a visit to a tactical missile production plant on Aug. 28 last year. - Yonhap News
South Korea's president warned that North Korea's involvement in the war in Ukraine poses a "grave security threat" to the world. President Yoon Suk Yeol held a security meeting Friday with key intelligence, military and national security officials to discuss Pyongyang's participation in Russian leader Vladimir Putin's offensive against Ukraine. According to the presidential office, the participants "shared the view that the current situation, in which the close military ties between Russia and North Korea have expanded beyond the movement of military supplies to the actual deployment of troops, poses a grave security threat" to South Korea and the international community. Separately, the head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Directorate also shared the agency's assessment that there are now nearly 11,000 North Korean infantry troops training in Russia to fight in Ukraine. "They will be ready on Nov. 1," Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told The War Zone. - Politico
Italian parents who have made the often difficult and expensive decision to have children through surrogacy abroad have been thrown into a state of fear after a sudden shift in the country’s already strict restrictions on bringing those children up in Italy. Italy has broadened its legislation on surrogacy, which has been illegal in the country since 2004, to now criminalize “surrogacy tourism” in countries like the United States and Canada, subjecting any intended parent who breaks the law to fines of up to €1 million ($1 million) and jail terms of up to two years. - CNN
Cuba’s power grid failed and the entire nation plunged into darkness Friday, less than a day after the government stressed the need to paralyze the economy to save electricity in the face of major gasoline shortages and large-scale, regular outages. The electricity went out nationwide Friday morning after a failure at a thermoelectric power plant in Matanzas, east of Havana, Cuba’s Energy Ministry said on X. The blackout came less than a day after the prime minister, Manuel Marrero Cruz, held a late-night television address with state officials to discuss the ongoing electricity crisis, which experts said was the worst the nation — long accustomed to food and electricity shortages — had ever experienced. For weeks, the country has lacked the fuel to run the power grid, which has left large parts of the nation without electricity for 15- to 20-hour stretches. - NYT
