World Briefing: November 18, 2024
US President Joe Biden has given the green light for Ukraine to use long-range US missiles to strike inside Russia. The news has not been formally announced, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said "the missiles will speak for themselves.” The US will reportedly allow Ukraine to use the missiles to hold onto the small chunk of Russian territory it occupies in Kursk. The US apparently made its decision after Russia allowed North Korean troops to fight alongside Russians in Kursk, BBC reported. Last night, Russia launched another drone and missile attack on Ukraine, with at least 11 people killed and 68 injured by a missile attack in Sumy, in the east of the country.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, told the FT that the ATACMS would allow Kyiv to attack “high value targets” and “potentially disrupt Russian operations.” He added: “There are targets that can only be addressed by high payload missiles such as ATACMS or equivalent aerial missiles. This is, of course, a decision coming after a significant and extremely painful delay.”
My analysis: This is a political gesture first and foremost, and is consistent with the Biden administration’s drip feed approach to aiding Ukraine. It’s of course also timed to future proof Ukraine aid against the incoming Trump administration. And as several experts have pointed out, the supply of available ATACMS - which have a range of 300 kilometers or 190 miles - is short.
I find it astonishing that while around the same time the news about the policy change was leaked out, Mr. Biden found the chutzpah to stand up to the invisible enemies of the Amazon but not to a tyrant like Mr Putin and take the opportunity to stare him down and say ‘attack us or our allies, and there’s going to be a huge price to pay.’ I suspect the approach made the Ukrainians feel even more lonely in this war after what they called a painful delay. Absolutely gobsmacking.
At the end of the day - this is limited capability being introduced at a late stage for the lame duck administration. And that the Kremlin had time for attack aircraft and munitions stocks to be moved further back. Time will tell whether the apparent diplomatic/political purpose of the gesture will do much to move Russian President Vladimir Putin closer to the negotiating table.
Perhaps because of the long time it took to receive the authorization, Zelensky’s reaction almost seemed to lack gratitude: “Strikes are not made with words,” he said during his nightly video address. “Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves.”
It is not clear how ironclad the US restrictions are. Could, for example, they be used to take out completely Russia’s Kerch Straight bridge - which is not only a strategic military channel but also a pet project of Mr. Putin?
One US analyst said the US authorization will also have a further knock-on effect: potentially enabling the UK and France to grant Ukraine permission to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia. However it’s not clear what the mechanism is for that type of go-ahead.
“This is a decision coming after a significant and extremely painful delay”
As Ukraine marks the 1000th day mark on Tuesday of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, a top UN official warns of a mass displacement crisis after Russian attacks on critical infrastructure as winter takes hold. “It could be a tipping point forcing further mass displacement both inside the country and outside the country,” said Matthias Schmale, the organization’s top aid official. “So, this is not just about technical solutions, it’s about urging the international community to do its bit to stop this war.” He added that, to date, civilian infrastructure has been decimated with over 2,000 attacks now on healthcare facilities and two million damaged homes. Almost four in 10 people in Ukraine need humanitarian assistance. About 65 per cent of Ukraine's own energy production capacity has been destroyed.
A rare Israeli airstrike on central Beirut killed Hezbollah's chief spokesman Sunday, an official with the militant group said. Earlier, officials said Israeli strikes killed at least 12 people in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has been at war with the Palestinian Hamas for over a year. The latest in targeted killings of senior Hezbollah officials came as Lebanese officials considered a United States-led cease-fire proposal. Israel also bombed several buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs, where Hezbollah has long been headquartered, after warning people to evacuate. Mohammed Afif, the head of media relations for Hezbollah, was killed in a strike on the Arab socialist Baath party's office in central Beirut, according to a Hezbollah official who was not authorized to brief reporters and spoke on condition of anonymity - NPR
A South African court ordered police to end a standoff with illegal miners and allow emergency workers to gain access to a shaft where hundreds are believed to be holed up. The High Court in Pretoria, South Africa, said in an interim ruling that all miners underground in the mine in Stilfontein should be allowed to leave and no one should block their exit, according to state broadcaster SABC. The ruling follows growing concerns about the well-being of the illegal miners – who can spend months below ground – after police cut off food and water supplies. At least one decomposed body has been recovered from the mine, police said - CNN
Voters in Gabon overwhelmingly approved a new constitution, authorities said Sunday, more than one year after mutinous soldiers overthrew the country’s longtime president and seized power in the oil-rich Central African nation. Over 91% of voters approved the new constitution in a referendum held on Saturday, Gabon's Interior Minister Hermann Immongault said in a statement read on state television. Turnout was an estimated 53.5%, he added. The final results will be announced by the Constitutional Court, the interior minister said - France 24
Thousands of protesters have gathered in Slovakia's capital on the 35th anniversary of the start of the Velvet Revolution that brought an end to decades of communist rule in the former Czechoslovakia to oppose the policies of populist Prime Minister Robert Fico. The protest united the opposition, including the liberal Progressive Slovakia, pro-business Freedom and Solidarity and the conservative Christian Democrats who all say Fico is a threat to democracy. 'The government takes our freedom and democracy,' a banner in the crowd read. “Slovakia is and will be part of the Western civilization," a conservative political veteran František Mikloško, who was one of the Slovak leaders in 1989, told the crowd in downtown Bratislava.“ - Euronews
