World Briefing: November 5, 2024
It’s the last day of voting in the United States in a tumultuous election that’s being billed as the most significant in a generation. With the latest polls placing Vice-President Kamala Harris neck and neck with her Republican challenger Donald Trump. The two opponents spent yesterday racing across swing states that will determine the victor. Tens of millions of Americans have already voted by mail and at advance polls. But when it comes down to it, at the end some voters have more sway than others. As the Washington Post reminded us: despite more than 158 million voters casting a ballot in the 2020 presidential race, the decisions of just over 45,000 voters living in three states effectively carried the race for President Joe Biden.
A whopping 37 percent of voters have done so via absentee ballots or early in-person voting. Early voting was highest in North Carolina, followed by Florida and Georgia. More than 78 million ballots have already been cast in 47 states and the District of Columbia, according to data gathered by CNN and others
Says the New York Times: “Early voting surged in the 2020 presidential election, driving a massive increase in overall turnout and helping Joseph R. Biden Jr. secure his victory. Many states made early voting easier that year because of the pandemic, but over the last four years some states have passed laws that will make it harder for voters to cast ballots early in this election. The number of people who have requested absentee ballots in each state offers an indication of how strong the early turnout may be.”
With the 2024 US presidential election finally at hand, the final weekend of the race has seen a slate of last-minute polls that seem to offer more questions than answers. Driving the discourse was a Des Moines Register poll that found Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former president Donald Trump by a 47-44 margin in Iowa — a shocking result for a state that had been considered a lock for Trump. The pollster, J. Ann Selzer, is considered the “gold standard,” having accurately predicted the outcomes of several past elections in Iowa. Other polls tell different stories, but with 48 hours or so to go until Nov. 5, virtually every prominent pundit seems to agree: For all the polls, no one can say with confidence who is going to win. - Semafor
So when do we find out who becomes the next president of the United States? In 2016, the Associated Press was able to call the presidential election at just after 2:30 a.m. ET, just over 90 minutes after the last poll in the U.S. closed, in Alaska. In 2020, with a record number of votes received by mail and overall, the presidency was called by the AP on Saturday, about 3 ½ days after polls closed.
"If Trump does prematurely declare victory, major networks are not obligated to air any remarks to that effect live; refusing to do so isn’t censorship, and would allow journalists to report on what Trump has said in due factual context," says Jon Allsop of the Columbia Journalism Review.
Groups backing former President Donald J. Trump recently sent messages to organize poll watchers to be ready to dispute votes in Democratic areas. Some posted images of armed men standing up for their rights to recruit for their cause. Others spread conspiracy theories that anything less than a Trump victory on Tuesday would be a miscarriage of justice worthy of revolt - NYT
Donald Trump continued spouting his trademark menacing rhetoric right up until the last minute of campaigning - suggesting at a Sunday rally that the “fake news” be targeted by shooters. Trump also repeated an odd proposal to remove fluoride from public drinking water systems - an idea floated by Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who is poised to have significant sway over health policy in a Trump administration. Kennedy is also pushing for banning vaccines, an idea Trump could endorse.
Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate chamber next year thanks to a 2024 election map that has Democrats defending seven seats in conservative or swing states and on offense just two in the safe Republican states of Texas and Florida. Democrats narrowly control the Senate 51-49 today, but with West Virginia all but certain to flip Republican after the impending retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin who registered as an independent in May - NPR
China’s top legislative body is set to meet in Beijing this week, with many investors hopeful that lawmakers will finally green light a stimulus package large enough to buoy the country’s flagging economy, with estimates ranging between two to 10 trillion yuan (around $280 billion to $1 trillion). China’s central bank announced the stimulus in September, but the size and nature of the package has remained elusive since. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting, which is set to run Monday through Friday, could finally see those details emerge. Economists expect that the bulk of the package will focus on local government debt, Barron’s reported — “a welcoming gesture to markets,” two Bank of America China economists wrote, as it could relieve some pressure on local governments struggling with the country’s slumped property market. Analysts warned, however, that the path forward is likely to be “slow,” the outlet noted, disappointing investors. - Semafor
A pair of incendiary devices that started fires in British and German warehouses were dress rehearsals for a Russian plot to attack a transatlantic flight, according to Polish authorities. Disguised as electric massage machines from Lithuania, the packages allegedly contained a highly-flammable “magnesium-based substance” that would have burned fiercely enough to bring down an aeroplane. Four people have been arrested in connection with the incidents in July. Another man, who is suspected to have posted the parcels from Lithuania, and tried to conceal his identity by giving false return addresses, was arrested in September, officials in Warsaw said. Pawel Szota, the head of Poland’s foreign intelligence agency, pointed the finger at Russia. “I’m not sure the political leaders of Russia are aware of the consequences if one of these packages exploded, causing a mass casualty event, he told The Wall Street Journal. The Polish national prosecutor’s office said: “The group’s goal was to test the transfer channel for such channels which were ultimately to be sent to the United States of America or Canada.” - The Times
The Serbian minister of construction, transport, and infrastructure has announced that he will resign on November 5 following the collapse of a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station in which 14 people died and three were severely injured. Goran Vesic said that he did not accept responsibility for the incident but was stepping down for "moral reasons." He said he couldn't accept blame for the deaths, "as neither I nor my team bear any responsibility for the tragedy." The cause of the collapse of the concrete canopy is still unknown. Vesic urged the Prosecutor-General's Office to determine accountability for the deaths. Since the canopy collapsed on November 1, critics have called for accountability from the authorities. A protest in Belgrade on November 3 demanded Vesic's resignation - RFE/RL
