World Briefing: November 5, 2024

It’s the last day of voting in the United States in a tumultuous election that’s being billed as the most significant in a generation. With the latest polls placing Vice-President Kamala Harris neck and neck with her Republican challenger Donald Trump. Tens of millions of Americans have already voted by mail and at advance polls. A whopping 37 percent of voters have done so via absentee ballots or early in-person voting. Early voting was highest in North Carolina, followed by Florida and Georgia. More than 78 million ballots have already been cast in 47 states and the District of Columbia, according to data gathered by CNN and others

  • Says the New York Times: “Early voting surged in the 2020 presidential election, driving a massive increase in overall turnout and helping Joseph R. Biden Jr. secure his victory. Many states made early voting easier that year because of the pandemic, but over the last four years some states have passed laws that will make it harder for voters to cast ballots early in this election. The number of people who have requested absentee ballots in each state offers an indication of how strong the early turnout may be.”

  • With the 2024 US presidential election finally at hand, the final weekend of the race has seen a slate of last-minute polls that seem to offer more questions than answers. Driving the discourse was a Des Moines Register poll that found Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former president Donald Trump by a 47-44 margin in Iowa — a shocking result for a state that had been considered a lock for Trump. The pollster, J. Ann Selzer, is considered the “gold standard,” having accurately predicted the outcomes of several past elections in Iowa. Other polls tell different stories, but with 48 hours or so to go until Nov. 5, virtually every prominent pundit seems to agree: For all the polls, no one can say with confidence who is going to win. - Semafor

  • Groups backing former President Donald J. Trump recently sent messages to organize poll watchers to be ready to dispute votes in Democratic areas. Some posted images of armed men standing up for their rights to recruit for their cause. Others spread conspiracy theories that anything less than a Trump victory on Tuesday would be a miscarriage of justice worthy of revolt - NYT

  • Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate chamber next year thanks to a 2024 election map that has Democrats defending seven seats in conservative or swing states and on offense just two in the safe Republican states of Texas and Florida. Democrats narrowly control the Senate 51-49 today, but with West Virginia all but certain to flip Republican after the impending retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin who registered as an independent in May - NPR

China’s top legislative body is set to meet in Beijing this week, with many investors hopeful that lawmakers will finally green light a stimulus package large enough to buoy the country’s flagging economy, with estimates ranging between two to 10 trillion yuan (around $280 billion to $1 trillion). China’s central bank announced the stimulus in September, but the size and nature of the package has remained elusive since. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting, which is set to run Monday through Friday, could finally see those details emerge. Economists expect that the bulk of the package will focus on local government debt, Barron’s reported — “a welcoming gesture to markets,” two Bank of America China economists wrote, as it could relieve some pressure on local governments struggling with the country’s slumped property market. Analysts warned, however, that the path forward is likely to be “slow,” the outlet noted, disappointing investors. - Semafor