World Briefing: December 3, 2024
TODAY IS #GIVINGTUESDAY…..
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Hezbollah fired at Israeli-controlled territory on Monday for the first time since a cease-fire was reached last week, prompting Israel to launch a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, as each side blamed the other for violating the tenuous truce. The Israeli military said two Hezbollah projectiles fell in open areas without causing casualties. They hit a strip of land called Shebaa Farms — Mount Dov to Israelis — that was seized by Israel in the 1967 war, but is claimed by both Israel and Lebanon. The Lebanese armed group said its launches had been prompted by “repeated violations of the agreement by the Israeli enemy,” describing it as “an initial defensive response that serves as a warning.” In response, the Israeli military said it had bombarded sites “throughout Lebanon,” including dozens of missile launchers. The airstrikes killed at least 10 people in Lebanon on Monday, according to the Lebanese health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants - NYT
It is looking almost certain that Michel Barnier, the centre-right prime minister appointed by French President Emmanuel Macron after July’s inconclusive parliamentary election, will lose a no-confidence motion over the budget tomorrow. Barring a last-minute surprise, his fragile coalition will be the first French government to be forced out by a no-confidence vote since 1962. Barnier’s budget, which seeks to reduce France’s spiralling public deficit through €60bn ($62.9bn; £49.6bn) in tax hikes and spending cuts, has been opposed by politicians on both the left and far right. He used special powers to force the belt-tightening social security budget through the lower house of parliament without a final vote after a last-minute concession was not enough to win over far-right the National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen. Barnier’s minority government had relied on RN support for its survival - The Guardian
Donald Trump’s pledge to end Russia’s war in Ukraine is doomed to failure if the US president-elect does not involve broader talks on Moscow’s security concerns, an influential hardliner close to the Kremlin has warned. Konstantin Malofeyev, a Russian tycoon who is subject to western sanctions, told the Financial Times that President Vladimir Putin was likely to reject a peace plan proposal by Trump’s recently nominated special envoy for the conflict, Keith Kellogg. “Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and then tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it. That’d be the whole negotiation,” Malofeyev said in an interview at a luxury resort in Dubai. “For the talks to be constructive, we need to talk not about the future of Ukraine, but the future of Europe and the world.” Malofeyev said Trump could only end the conflict if he reversed Washington’s decision on the use of advanced long-range weapons and removed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from office, then agreed to meet Putin and “discuss all the issues of the global order at the highest level”. He warned that “the world is on the brink of nuclear war” after Kyiv fired US- and UK-made long-range missiles into Russian territory, and Putin responded by firing an experimental nuclear-capable ballistic missile at Ukraine. Just days before his nomination, Kellogg told Fox News that Washington should call Russia’s bluff in response to Putin’s recent ballistic missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro and threats of further escalation. “[Putin] used [the nuclear-capable missile] for psychological reasons,” Kellogg said. “He didn’t use it because it was militarily effective . . . but because he is kind of saying to the west ‘see what I can do?’” Rather than “back off”, he added, the US and western allies should “lean in, because Putin will not start a nuclear war in Europe”. Malofeyev, however, argued that if the US did not agree to roll back its support for Ukraine, Russia could fire a tactical nuclear weapon. “There will be a radiation zone nobody will ever go into in our lifetime,” he said. “And the war will be over.” He said Moscow would only see it as a lasting condition for peace if Trump was willing to discuss other global flashpoints including the wars in the Middle East and Russia’s burgeoning alliance with China — and a US acknowledgment that Ukraine is part of the Kremlin’s core interests. “We want a long-term peace — some sort of general agreement about the global order,” Malofeyev said. “Trump wants to go down in history, he’ll be 80 soon, he’s a grandfather. Putin’s not 50 any more either. It’ll be the legacy they both leave us.” - FT
“Living in Ukraine for most of the war has opened my eyes to many things evolving beneath the surface. The gradual departure of friends I once portrayed as symbols of irrepressible resilience. The drop in business at my favourite establishments as men of military age stop going out altogether to avoid roving draft dodger teams. The built up stress, visible in the trembling hands of friends, from the daily air raid sirens and overhead buzz of lethal drones. Hugs these days seem to last a second or two longer; handshakes more firm, as if they could be their last. ”
President Vladimir Putin has approved a new, multiyear budget that sets defense spending for next year at record-high levels, signaling no let-up in Russia's determination to defeat Ukraine. The approved budget, which was published on the government’s main website on December 1, calls for 35.5 percent of all spending to be allocated for national defense in 2025. That’s up from a reported 28.3 precent this year. The spending plan had been approved by both houses of Russia’s parliament over the previous 10 days. At 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion), defense-related spending is at a level not seen since the Cold War. While the budget showcases the government’s intention to pump money into the armed forces and security agencies, it also shields up to a third of expenditures from public scrutiny – a break from past budgets. - RFE/RL
Meanwhile, The Economist writes: “The combination of a declining currency and a ballooning budget deficit has led to talk of a hard landing for the Russian economy in 2025. After two years of strong growth, which has confounded many analysts’ gloomy predictions, the pace of expansion will slow sharply. The economic bill for the war is at last coming due. It could be a big one.”
The US UN Ambassador, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, at press conference opening her final US presidency of the UN Security Council: “Yes, I have some regrets. You know, as we look back on the world that we have the responsibility to bring peace and security, and as I walk out the door, there is conflict going on all around the world: Sudan, DRC, Gaza, Syria. People are suffering. Millions of people are still displaced. Millions of people are still suffering. So I do regret that, and wish that I could have waved a magic wand to bring peace on earth and goodwill to man everywhere.”
The Philippine military has deployed a navy ship and air force planes to shadow a Russian submarine that passed through the South China Sea off the country's western coast. The Russian submarine identified itself in response to a Philippine Navy two-way radio inquiry last week, saying it was en route home to Russia's eastern city of Vladivostok after joining an exercise with the Malaysian Navy, Jonathan Malaya, assistant director-general of the National Security Council, said. The submarine, like other foreign ships, has the right of "innocent passage" in the country's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) but it still sparked concern when it was spotted on Thursday about 80 nautical miles (148 kilometres) off the Philippine province of Mindoro. The submarine was sighted after it surfaced due to weather-related conditions. “All of that is very concerning," President Ferdinand Marcos Jr told reporters when asked about the submarine - ABC
A professor at the Faculty at Khost University in Afghanistan has been beaten so badly by the Taliban fighters that he is unconscious and has been missing since yesterday. The reason is that the authorities are conducting exams for former professors, and the professor considered this exam an insult to himself. As a result, he was beaten and is still missing. The Ministry of Public Health, under the order of the Taliban, has closed all institutes offering medical and paramedical education for girls, and starting tomorrow, no new students will be allowed. This comes at a time when their semester exams are either starting or will begin tomorrow. The insult and humiliation of teachers shows that the position of professors and universities in society is being reduced to zero and is being completely eliminated. They could have taken other disciplinary actions against this professor or dismissed him, but since they are now too arrogant to come down to earth, this is their doing. This sends a message to the teachers in the country: either you step aside and leave the university for our uneducated people, or you will work like machines, with no status or respect. If you do something against their wishes, this will be the result. The silence of the professors and the entire academic community indicates that the university and the educational system are practically in ruins and are now only serving a few illiterate and unprofessional people, giving legitimacy to their many unjust policies and actions. The closure of medical and health education centers for girls is, in effect, a war against knowledge and the people. Any justification for this is nothing but treason. After this, the same statement is practically implemented: women belong at home or under control. As a result, women are erased from society, and the birth of girls will once again be seen as shameful, like in the era of ignorance - This summary is via Anayat on LinkedIn
Legal problems in Poland are mounting for exiled Russian opposition activist Igor Rogov and his wife, Irina. On Monday, prosecutors confirmed to the news outlet Vot Tak that Irina was jailed last month on espionage charges in connection with aiding and abetting an unspecified attempted crime. Four months earlier, police arrested Igor on suspicion of a bombing plot after he received “a package from Ukrainian volunteers” containing explosives. In late November, the Polish authorities raided the home of another exiled opposition activist, Danila Buzanov, who worked with Rogov at Alexey Navalny’s office in Saransk. Buzanov told Vot Tak that he was questioned as a witness about whether he knew anything of Rogov’s supposed ties to Russia’s Federal Security Service. “It felt surreal,” Buzanov told Vot Tak - Meduza
