World Briefing: February 18, 2025
Top US and Russian diplomats are meeting in Saudi Arabia today for talks on resetting their countries' fractured relations and making a tentative start on trying to end the Ukraine war. Both sides played down the chances that the first high-level meeting between the countries since US President Donald Trump took office would result in a breakthrough. Still, the very fact the talks were taking place has triggered concern in Ukraine and Europe following the United States' recent overtures towards the Kremlin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv was not invited to the discussions in Riyadh, while European leaders were gathering in Paris for emergency talks on how to respond to the radical pivot by the new US administration. Preparations for a possible summit between presidents Trump and Vladimir Putin are also expected to be on the agenda. Trump is pushing for a swift resolution to the three-year conflict in Ukraine, while Russia sees his outreach as a chance to win concessions. Zelensky said Kyiv "did not know anything about" the talks in Riyadh, according to Ukrainian news agencies, and that it "cannot recognise any things or any agreements about us without us" - France 24
From the FT: “The implications for the rest of Europe are also alarming. Putin wants NATO troops removed from the whole of the former Soviet empire. European officials believe Trump is likely to agree to withdraw US troops from the Baltics and perhaps further West, leaving the EU vulnerable to a Russian army that NATO governments warn is preparing for a larger conflict beyond Ukraine.”
From Timofiy Mylovanov, President of Kyiv School of Economics: “As one defense and military Israeli expert told me yesterday - Europe is so fu…ked. They have no idea how unready they are. I agree with him.”
From former Ukrainian foreign affairs minister Dmytro Kuleba: “The games haven’t even begun.”
Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country. The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv. The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”. The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states. The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favour of the US. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children’,” said one source close to the negotiations. It states that “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce. - Telegraph
Reports emerged ahead of Mr Rubio’s visit that Saudi Arabia is open to mediating between the Trump administration and Iran to bring about a new agreement on Tehran's nuclear programme, according to CNN. This comes after a series of regional shifts, including the weakening of Iran's allied forces in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia's willingness to act as an intermediary reflects its strategic interest in regional stability and preventing Iran from advancing its nuclear capabilities. The kingdom aims to use its relationship with Mr Trump to provide a diplomatic channel for Iran to engage with the US, CNN reported. Israel and the US remain committed to countering Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence, Mr Netanyahu said on Sunday after his meeting with Mr Rubio. Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic ties in March 2023, in a deal brokered by China. - The National
European leaders vowed on Monday to continue their joint support for Ukraine in the face of Russia's invasion but failed to provide any new security guarantees that could make a difference amid Donald Trump's push to launch negotiations with Russia. Trump's declared intention to strike a deal to settle the three-year war in the coming weeks has shaken Europe to the core and stoked fears it could lead to painful concessions for Kyiv and leave the continent vulnerable to the Kremlin's expansionism. The White House has sent a questionnaire to European allies asking, among other things, if they would be willing to deploy peacekeeping soldiers to the war-torn nation - Euronews
Following his participation in an emergency summit of European leaders in Paris, the UK’s Keir Starmer said that “at stake is not just the future of Ukraine, it is an existential question for Europe as a whole,” and a “once in a generation moment of collective security of our continent.” He added: “Only a lasting peace in Ukraine that safeguards its sovereignty will deter Putin from further aggression,” he says. Starmer called for the US to provide a “backstop” to deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again after meeting with European leaders for emergency talks on the war. He says that Trump’s comments asking Europe to step up “should not come as a surprise,” and says “Europeans will have to step up, both in terms of spending and the capabilities that we provide to Ukraine.” - Guardian
There was criticism from frontline European states who were not invited to the Paris talks, the New York Times reported. One senior Baltic official saying that Mr. Macron’s initiative splits the unity of the European Union, and that the meeting should have been called by President António Costa of the European Council, not by Mr. Macron. “In public, Europeans will say we all must stand together, but this selective meeting is not a good start to a united Europe on these issues,” said Mary Elise Sarotte, a diplomatic historian who wrote an influential book on the early days of NATO expansion, “Not One Inch.”
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa have both just posted on social media their identical reaction to the emergency summit meeting in Paris: “Today in Paris we reaffirmed that Ukraine deserves peace through strength. Peace respectful of its independence, territorial integrity, with strong security guarantees. Europe carries its full share of the military assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, we need a surge in Defence in Europe.”
A Russian student was sentenced to 13 years in a penal colony for communicating with “representatives of a Ukrainian armed formation.” He is accused of high treason. The FSB claims that Artem Konstantinov contacted “representatives of a Ukrainian armed formation” on telegram and wanted to join it to fight on the side of Ukraine. Konstantinov, a resident of the Russian city of Murmansk, previously said that he was kidnapped and tortured by FSB officers. The persecution of the 25-year-old student became known in October 2022, and in March 2023 he disappeared, probably at that time he was detained and arrested - Radio Liberty
A Delta Airlines plane flipped upon arrival at Toronto’s Pearson Airport on Monday and at least eight people are injured. The airport confirmed on X that an “incident” occurred with the Delta flight from Minneapolis and that all passengers and crew are accounted for. One passenger is critically injured and seven others were also hurt, paramedics said. Video from the scene showed the plane upside down on the snowy tarmac as emergency workers hose it down. The plane was somewhat obscured by snow from a winter storm that hit Toronto over the weekend. “Emergency teams are responding,” the airport said in a post on the social platform X. “All passengers and crew are accounted for.” Delta said in a statement it was “aware of reports of Endeavor Flight 4819 operating from Minneapolis/St. Paul to Toronto-Pearson International Airport as involved in an incident.” - AP
Alibaba founder Jack Ma’s attendance at a so-called private enterprise forum called by President Xi Jinping suggests he’s been rehabilitated after the debacle with his company, Ant. Ma is seated in the front row, and even though he did not speak, his handshake with Xi speaks volumes. “As a loyal Communist Party member Ma played his struggles well, keeping a low profile, not complaining publicly about his treatment and doing what was needed to get back into the good graces of Xi. What this means substantively for Alibaba going forward is not clear, but Xi having Ma, one of the world’s greatest living entrepreneurs, attend this forum is an encouraging signal for private businesses,” wrote the Sinocism newsletter. Before being temporarily placed in cold storage by Xi, Ma was a corporate ambassador of sorts for China - even turning up in Ukraine to spin narratives about close cooperation with Beijing. Other corporate leaders at the forum included the heads of DeepSeek, Xiami, Tencent and Huawei. The leaders of Baidu and Jd.com were not invited. Sinocism added: “The good news is that unlike at the 2020 symposium Xi didn’t mention by name several patriotic entrepreneurs who ended up “donating” their assets to the country and at least in one case committed suicide. Now we are left waiting for even more substantive policy measures to back up the Party’s renewed embrace of the private sector.” *Alibaba is the owner of the South China Morning Post.
The Chinese government has increasingly imposed arbitrary restrictions on people’s internationally protected right to leave the country, Human Rights Watch said today. Chinese authorities are requiring citizens from locales they broadly consider to be high risks for online fraud or “unlawful” emigration to submit additional paperwork and obtain approval from multiple government offices during passport application processes. Those not meeting these cumbersome requirements are often denied passports. The government has long restricted people’s access to passports in areas where Tibetans and Uyghurs predominantly live.“While many Chinese citizens enjoy international travel, the right to leave China appears to be restricted for growing categories of people throughout the country,” said Maya Wang, associate China director at Human Rights Watch. “The authorities are going beyond existing restrictions on Tibetans and Uyghurs to limit the travel of people throughout China under the guise of anti-crime campaigns.”
The Vatican said Monday that Pope Francis’s respiratory infection presented a “complex clinical picture” requiring a change in treatment and that he would remain in the Rome hospital where he was admitted Friday. The 88-year-old pontiff, who in his youth had part of one lung removed, was taken to Agostino Gemelli Polyclinic Hospital after developing another in a series of bronchitis cases. Preliminary tests indicated that Francis had a respiratory tract infection and was running a slight fever as he underwent treatment. Subsequent tests showed that the pope’s fever had abated but that his infection lingered and required adjustments in treatment. His condition since Friday has been reported as “fair” or “stable. Early Monday, the Vatican offered more detail, saying Francis had a “polymicrobial infection of the respiratory tract” — indicating that the pope was fighting a multipronged infection requiring “adequate hospitalization.” The latest test results led to further alterations in his treatment, according to the Holy See. His doctors, the Vatican said, have ordered “absolute rest.” In an update provided later Monday, the Vatican said the pope continued to have no fever and his condition remained stable. The Vatican said he had performed some “work,” adding that he was touched by an outpouring of concern - Washington Post
