World Briefing: March 6, 2025
President Trump’s decision this week to pause military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine could reorder the battlefield, either halting the fight or potentially giving Russia a decisive advantage. With help from Europe, both with arms and intelligence support, Ukraine could continue the fight through the summer without additional American aid. But the loss of one of its most important benefactors will make it easier for Russia to assault Ukrainian lines of defense, analysts say. “The immediate hit will be on troop morale — bolstering the Russians and depressing the Ukrainians,” said Alexander Vindman, a Ukrainian-born former U.S. Army officer who served on the National Security Council in 2019. The intelligence pause will withhold information that Ukraine uses to target Russian forces. Withholding the aid, according to Trump administration officials, is meant to pressure Mr. Zelensky into signing a deal to give American companies access to Ukrainian minerals. If he makes an agreement, said one Trump administration official, the intelligence sharing will continue and the military supplies already allocated by the Biden administration will flow once more. Europe, in particular France and Britain, supplies Ukraine with satellite imagery that can be used to find Russian targets on the battlefield. Still, European satellites have not been as focused on Russian military movements as American spy satellites, and Ukrainian officials concede that if the intelligence pause continues there will be consequences - NYT
As I mentioned on Al Jazeera last night, the impact of the cessation of U.S. intelligence sharing is already being felt here on the ground in Ukraine. There has been a very noticeable change in the Armed Force’s defensive posture along the Black Sea shore in Odesa. Assets that were there the day before yesterday are completely gone. Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford said from Kyiv that forces on the frontlines that have been contacted said they are already feeling the difference.
““This borders on being a catastrophic game changer. People will die because of this. People will die.””
Four senior members of Donald Trump’s entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv’s top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelensky - including opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, a remorselessly ambitious former prime minister, and senior members of the party of Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky’s immediate predecessor as president. The discussions centered on whether Ukraine could hold quick presidential elections. These are being delayed in line with the country’s constitution because Ukraine remains under martial law. The Trump aides are confident that Zelensky would lose any vote due to war fatigue and public frustration over rampant corruption. Indeed, his poll ratings have been in decline for years, although they have picked up in the wake of last week’s Oval Office brawl. The key to all of the plans under discussion via back channels is to hold presidential elections after a temporary ceasefire is agreed, but before full-scale peace negotiations get underway in earnest. Both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko have publicly opposed holding elections before the fighting ends, as has Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Nonetheless, “Poroshenko’s people and Yulia, they’re all talking to Trump World, positioning themselves as people who would be easier to work with. And people who would consent to many of the things that Zelenskyy is not agreeing to,” a top Republican foreign policy expert told POLITICO, asking that his name be withheld so he could speak freely - Politico
The Trump administration has been holding direct talks with Hamas over the release of U.S. hostages held in Gaza and the possibility of a broader deal to end the war. The talks — held by U.S. presidential envoy for hostage affairs Adam Boehler — are unprecedented. The U.S. had never before engaged directly with Hamas, which it designated a terrorist organization in 1997. The talks have focused in part on the release of U.S. hostages, which is within Boehler's remit as hostage envoy. But they have also included discussions of a broader deal to release all remaining hostages and reach a long-term truce, the sources say. No deal has yet been reached. While the Trump administration consulted with Israel about the possibility of engaging with Hamas, Israel learned about aspects of the talks through other channels, one source said. The Israeli Prime Minister's office said in a statement: "During talks with the U.S., Israel expressed its opinion about the issue of direct talks with Hamas." - Axios
French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the nation on Wednesday amid uncertainty over the transatlantic partnership after the US paused military support to Ukraine. He announced plans to hold a meeting of all European army chiefs in Paris next week, insisting on the need for independent military defence. The speech focused on the “need for independence and sovereignty when it comes to European defence”. It was also “a message to the French people” to underscore the fact that an era of transatlantic cooperation was ending. Macron said he will confer with European allies on the idea of using France's nuclear deterrent to protect the continent in the face of threats from Russia. The French president described Russia as a “threat to France and Europe," and said he had decided “to open the strategic debate on the protection of our allies on the European continent by our (nuclear) deterrent”. He ended his primetime address to the nation with a call to French citizens to rally to the national cause. “The French nation needs you. Political decisions, military equipment, that is just one part of the puzzle. But it will never come without solidarity. Our generation will not be able to just live off the dividends of peace. It is up to us to sow the seeds for the future." - France 24
A sharply divided Supreme Court on Wednesday reinstated a lower-court order for the Trump administration to release frozen foreign aid, but it was not clear how quickly money would start flowing. By a 5-4 vote, the court rejected an emergency appeal from the Republican administration, while also telling U.S. District Judge Amir Ali to clarify his earlier order that required the quick release of nearly $2 billion in aid for work that had already been done. Although the outcome is a short-term loss for President Donald Trump’s administration, the nonprofit groups and businesses that sued are still waiting for the money they say they are owed. Organizations in the U.S. and around the world have cut services and laid off thousands of workers as a result - AP
The United States’ decision to suspend foreign aid is exacerbating a catastrophic hunger crisis in Sudan, where millions risk dying from malnutrition-related illnesses. Last year, USAID contributed 44 percent to Sudan’s $1.8bn humanitarian response, according to the United Nations. A portion of this sum went to supporting Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), which are neighbourhood relief groups that support hundreds of “community kitchens” across the country. “About 80 percent of the 1,460 community kitchens across Sudan were shut down [when USAID paused all funding],” said Hajooj Kuka, the spokesperson for the ERRs in Khartoum state - Al Jazeera
