WAR IN UKRAINE: July 24, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 515
Russian troops bombarded Odesa on July 23, damaging the historic center and a UNESCO-listed cathedral and killing and injuring civilians. One person was killed, and 21, including four children, were injured, according to local authorities. At least 44 buildings were damaged, Deputy Head of the President's Office Oleksiy Kuleba reported. Among them were 25 historical buildings, including the Transfiguration Cathedral, according to Kuleba. "This is another attempt to kill peaceful Ukrainians, erase our history, and destroy our heritage of global significance," Kuleba wrote - Kyiv Independent
Overnight Russia attacked the port infrastructure of the Danube region in the Odesa region with "Shahed-136" drones. Three drones were destroyed by air defense forces. Oleg Kiper, the head of Odesa OVA, said a result of the impact, a hangar with grain was destroyed, tanks for storing cargo were damaged. Six people were injured - Suspilne
Meanwhile, Russia has accused Ukraine of being behind a drone attack that damaged at least two buildings Moscow early today. The Russian defence ministry said two drones were "suppressed and crashed.” Russia's state-owned Tass news agency reported that one drone fell close to the defence ministry - BBC
In a separate development, Russian-installed officials ordered people to evacuate one district of Crimea - the Ukrainian southern peninsular annexed by Moscow in 2014 - after a reported overnight Ukrainian drone attack. Kremlin-appointed regional head Sergei Aksenov said an ammunition depot was hit in the northern Dzhankoi area, and residents of nearby villages were told to leave their homes. He reported no casualties - BBC
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni says her country is ready to contribute to the reconstruction of the Transfiguration Cathedral in Odesa, which was damaged by a Russian missile attack. “The attacks on Odesa, the deaths of innocent people, and the destruction of the Transfiguration Cathedral deeply sadden us." An Italian delegation has reportedly already inspected the damage. Earlier she berated critics in the Italian parliament who voiced opposition to aiding Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
“This is barbarism, it’s terrorism. The people who did this are not people at all,” said Myroslav Vdodovych, the chief priest of the Transfiguration Cathedral. “I was one of the first people here, because I got notified when the alarm signals went off. It was a direct hit, right in the altar area,” he said. Trying to find positives amid the ruins, Vdodovych said the cathedral taking the hit had prevented the missile from slamming into neighbouring buildings, which had suffered some damage but saw no casualties. “In this way, we can say the cathedral saved lives.” - Guardian
Romania's Constanta port, Ukraine's main alternative route for grain since Russia's withdrawal led to the collapse of the Black Sea shipment deal, has capacity to handle extra cargoes until mid-August, the head of the port's business association said. He added operators were also seeking to increase capacity. Even before Russia on Monday quit a safe passage grain corridor through Ukraine's own ports, Constanta had emerged as the biggest alternative shipping route. It has handled roughly a third of Ukraine's grain exports since the start of the war - Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin has published an article on Russia-Africa ties and confirmed that Moscow seeks to substitute Ukrainian grain with Russian grain on world markets.
With Russian forces having laid down mines across broad areas of Ukraine, it is now the most mined country in the world, and the mines — in addition to unexploded bombs and artillery shells — are now prevalent in an area of Ukraine roughly the size of Florida, according to The Washington Post. Several experts told The Post that the amount of contaminated land in Ukraine is so massive that it could take close to 500 demining teams and 757 years to finish the work. And the World Bank estimated that the demining work could exceed $37 billion through 2033.
Unilever has said it will let Russian employees be conscripted to be sent to Ukraine if they are called up. The consumer goods giant, which has about 3,000 employees in Russia, has policies that cover the well-being and safety of its workers. However, in a letter to campaign group B4Ukraine, it said it would comply with Russian conscription law. Unilever has been under pressure to pull out of Russia, but says the situation is "not straightforward". n a letter to B4Ukraine, which campaigns for companies to cease operating in Russia to hurt its economy, Unilever said it "absolutely condemns the war in Ukraine as a brutal, senseless act by the Russian state". It also said it had responsibility for its 3,000 workers, adding that it had "global principles including the safety and well-being of our employees". Nevertheless, the British firm, which makes products including Marmite and Cornetto ice creams, said it was "aware of the law requiring any company operating in Russia to permit the conscription of employees should they be called". - BBC
Required reading…
An analysis of the situation and development prospects of the Black Sea region by Andriy Klymenko, project manager at Black Sea Strategic Research Institute
Current situation:
1️⃣No one can predict when the war will end.
🔹The war will not end with reaching the 1991 state borders of Ukraine.
🔹A peace agreement with Russia will mark the end of the war.
🔹Ukraine will not become a NATO member until then.
🔹Turkey will not open the Bosphorus to NATO warships (and Russia's) until the war is over.
2️⃣Russia is preparing for a long war and can withstand it.
🔹Russia's economy has withstood sanctions, adapted, and reoriented to the Global East.
◾️Oil:
The Black Sea is becoming an increasingly important source of revenue for Russia to continue the war - a record 5 million tonnes of crude oil in each of the last 4 months and 4 million tonnes of diesel fuel from the Black Sea. Revenues also remain steady, some of them are used to purchase "parallel imports".
The number of violations on marine oil and petroleum embargo keeps growing. Dozens of tankers under the embargo make several direct voyages a month to ports in the US, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Greece.
◾️Grain:
In 2023, Russia's grain transshipment increased by 2.2 times, and mineral fertilizers by 1.6 times. Cargo turnover of the Black Sea ports for the first half of 2023: Novorossiysk - (+11.0%), Tuapse - (+38.5%), Kavkaz port - (up 2.2 times), Rostov-on-Don - (+35.7%).
3️⃣Even partial isolation of Russia seems impossible in the current global economy.
🔹Russia has renewed and even surpassed its 2021 figures for imports of complex goods/devices/dual-use components.
4️⃣The global world seems to be getting more and more divided into 2 parts based on its attitude to the Great War.
5️⃣It is premature to hope for a rapid disintegration of Russia.
Its weakest point is the archaic, inflexible vertical system of governance. But there is no opposition. Imperialism and colonialism shared by authorities and people.
6️⃣Ukraine, including the Black Sea, has already become and will remain a kind of frontline state in the foreseeable future - a vast territory of constant long-term confrontation between the West and Russia.
7️⃣This "frontier" will not stay within the borders of Ukraine.
It is spreading and will continue to spread, not only to the Greater Black Sea region and to our closest neighbors and allies - Poland and the Baltic states.
❗️The civilized world must simultaneously realize the global danger of Russia and stop being afraid of Russia. Many neighboring countries already did that. Other countries still have that fear.
Russia is not an ordinary state. It is a territory ruled by a kind of criminal conglomerate.
Ideas for implementation:
✅ The Black Sea countries should create permanent naval groups now to protect the security of their own offshore gas fields; to protect maritime transportation (freedom of navigation); to combat sea mines;
✅ The safety of shipping and gas platforms should be protected not only from the sea but also from the air;
✅ A NATO Black Sea Command (or Command of International Peacekeeping and Maritime Security Forces, as well as International Disaster Response Forces) should be established;
✅ The Black Sea security cannot be achieved without de-occupation of Crimea;
✅ An international military base for deterring Russia should be established in the de-occupied Crimea;
✅ After the war is over, Russia should be deprived of the right to have a military fleet in the Black Sea, with the exception of coast guard boats;
✅ Each country that has imposed sanctions against Russia should create a state body to monitor their implementation, similar to the US OFAC;
✅ Turkey should reflect on its historical role in the 21st century.
Therefore, unless there is a "black swan," we should assume that the war will last for a long time.
Being a warrior state becomes Ukraine's historical mission