WAR IN UKRAINE: October 4, 2022
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 223
Ukrainian troops have retaken more territory in regions illegally annexed by Russia, with Kyiv's forces advancing near the southern city of Kherson and consolidating gains in the east, reports BBC. Russian-installed officials in Kherson confirmed the advance, but said Moscow's forces were digging in. Ukrainian troops also moved towards Russian-held Luhansk in the east. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said "there are new liberated settlements in several regions” - BBC
The stunning advances by Ukraine noted above represent a split screen reality for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who’s announced the illegal absorption of some of the very territory taken back by the Ukrainians. It will only accelerate criticism of his actions at home - and as I noted in BBC World recently - his roll of the dice will trigger further destabilization for him. As for the 300,000 or so Russian men being mobilized for what’s essentially a suicide mission, the return of huge numbers of bodies in boxes could create a potent army of angry mothers which even a dictator such as Putin will find impossible to ignore.
The Russian President Putin's proposals are opposed to peace, so there is currently no chance that negotiations will end the war in Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said in an interview with the Neue Osnabrucker Zeitung. "His proposal went something like this: 'We'll pillage your country, enslave your citizens, and then you can sign peace.' That's the opposite of peace. It's terror and lack of freedom," she said.
An investigation by The Associated Press and the PBS series “Frontline” has discovered a sophisticated Russian-run smuggling operation that has used falsified manifests and seaborne subterfuge to steal Ukrainian grain worth at least $530 million — cash that has helped feed President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. AP used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track three dozen ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to ports in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and other countries. One of the ships was identified by Ukraine but later released by Lebanon’ prosecutor general.
Required reading…
Sixty years ago the world was staring at a nuclear cataclysm. The Cuban missile crisis began in October 1962 when America detected Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. It blockaded the island, and debated invading it. The Soviets yielded, removing their nukes; America secretly removed nuclear-tipped missiles of its own from Turkey. Annihilation was averted.
Memories of those terrifying times are being revived by the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has repeatedly warned that he could resort to nuclear weapons. On September 21st he said he would use “all weapons systems available” to defend the “territorial integrity” of Russia—by implication including all the Ukrainian land he is annexing through sham referendums. ”It’s not a bluff,” said Mr Putin. In response Jake Sullivan, America’s national security adviser, sternly warned Russia of “catastrophic consequences” if it used nuclear weapons.
Read The Economist analysis here
