WAR IN UKRAINE: October 12, 2022
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 231
Joe Biden used an exclusive CNN interview on Tuesday to send another careful, yet clear and chilling message to Russian President Vladimir Putin about the disastrous consequences of using nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine. Biden was asked by Jake Tapper whether he thought that Putin -- who has warned he is prepared to use every option in Russia's arsenal -- might consider detonating one of the world's most heinous weapons as an act of desperation in a losing war. Biden replied: "I don't think he will…What I am talking about, I am talking to Putin. He, in fact, cannot continue with impunity to talk about the use of a tactical nuclear weapon as if that's a rational thing to do," Biden said, before warning of dangerous consequences of such a move…"The mistakes get made, the miscalculation could occur, no one could be sure what would happen and it could end in Armageddon," he said, again stressing that a nuclear blast that kills thousands of people could lead to events barreling way out of control.
In wake of massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine️, the US is expediting the delivery of two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, (NASAMS), to Kyiv as quickly as possible, the White House says. It’s the same system used to protect airspace in Washington, DC
If judged by the comments and statements that came yesterday from the NATO Secretary-General, G7 leaders and separately from U.S. President Joe Biden, then it was a very good day for Ukraine. As I told CNN’s Bianna Golodryga (video below) Russian President Vladimir Putin probes for weakness - and what the West needs to show in an unambiguous way is unity and strength. And that came through on all fronts.
“If Putin wins that will not only be a big defeat for Ukrainians, that will also be a defeat and dangerous for all of us because it will make the world more dangerous & it’ll make us more vulnerable for further Russian aggression” - the NATO chief told NPR’s Teri Schultz at a Brussels news conference. He added: “President Putin’s veiled nuclear threats are dangerous and irresponsible. Russia knows that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought..we haven’t seen any change in their posture.”
Later, after a G7 virtual meeting which opened with an address from Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, a statement made a couple of important points and went beyond the ineffective rhetoric that one expects from these fora: “We reaffirm our full support to Ukraine’s independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty in its internationally recognised borders…We reassured President Zelenskyy that we are undeterred and steadfast in our commitment to providing the support Ukraine needs….We reiterate our call on the Belarusian authorities to stop enabling the Russian war of aggression by permitting Russian armed forces to use Belarusian territory and by providing support to the Russian military….We deplore deliberate Russian escalatory steps, including the partial mobilisation of reservists and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric..We reaffirm that any use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by Russia would be met with severe consequences…We condemn Russia's actions at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant & the pressure exerted on personnel of the facility. This is a further irresponsible escalation & we will hold Russia responsible for any incident caused by their actions. The safety, security & safeguards of ZNPP are paramount.”
Russia says it has detained eight people in connection with Saturday's explosion on a key bridge linking Russia to Crimea, reports BBC. Its FSB security service said five of those held were Russians, while the others were Ukrainian and Armenian. It says Kyiv was behind the attack but a Ukrainian official described Russia's investigation as "nonsense". But online sleuths have concluded that photos of the lorry allegedly used in the attack is a fake.
Fresh explosions were reported in the Ukrainian cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Nikopol. The BBC's Hugo Bachega in Kyiv said five explosions had been heard in Kherson, one of the largest cities under Russian occupation, while there were unconfirmed reports that the air defence system in the city had been activated.
Ukrainian media report that the military said its troops were continuing their advance in the region, capturing another five settlements.
The recently restored power line supplying the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine has been cut again, forcing the plant to switch to emergency diesel generators, the UN atomic watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday - The Telegraph
The Institute for the Study of War said on Oct. 11 that open-sourced data supports Ukraine's military reports that Russia is loading trains with weapons, equipment, ammunition, and other unspecified materiel from Belarus to relocate to areas of engagement further south and east. The experts think such activity is "incompatible with setting conditions for a large-scale Russian or Belarusian ground attack" against Ukraine from Belarus - Kyiv Independent
“We know-- and Russian commanders on the ground know -- that their supplies & munitions are running out,” the UK GCHQ head said. Russia’s forces are exhausted. Use of prisoners to reinforce & now mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperiencd conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation” - Financial Times
Russian media: Putin, Erdogan to discuss Ukraine. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet in Kazakhstan on Oct. 13, Russian state-controlled news agency Interfax reported, citing Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov. They will discuss Ukraine and their countries' relations, said Peskov Kyiv Independent
Ukraine President Zelensky addresses a virtual meeting of G7 leaders on Tuesday. Here he’s being watched by the rotating German chairmanship
Required reading…
General Jay Raymond, Chief of Space Operations for the United States Space Force, recently called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the "first war where commercial space capabilities have really played a significant role".
The BBC elaborated on his remarks, noting that the US and China have launched hundreds of military satellites, which provide intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance for the respective governments plus communication services, while Ukraine has none.
Satellite data is crucial in wartime and serves many purposes, from providing aerial surveillance which aids investigation into war crimes to tracking launches of ballistic missiles.
Having none of their own space-based satellites, Ukraine has relied on US satellite capabilities to conduct precision strikes on Russian targets, while Russia also relies on space technology for such attacks. Space continues to become an increasingly important domain of warfare, clearly demonstrated by Russians invasion of war.
Credit: Elisabeth Braw, In the Grayzone Newsletter.