WAR IN UKRAINE: September 30, 2022

Casting a ballot during a referendum while an armed Russian serviceman stood guard, in Luhansk, on Tuesday. Credit: Associated Press

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 219

• Russia's Vladimir Putin will hold a signing ceremony on Friday to annex four more areas of Ukraine after self-styled referendums condemned by Ukraine and the West as a sham. Russian-backed officials had earlier claimed the five-day exercise secured almost total popular support. So-called votes were held in Luhansk and Donetsk in the east, and in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south. The Russian president will make a major speech at the Kremlin - BBC.

• My quick take: This is nothing less than an act of geopolitical piracy that will make the world more dangerous and pose deal a challenge to the international rule of law. A strong and united international response is required immediately - steps that go beyond sanctions.

• The Kremlin has reiterated that any attacks on Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia will be considered as acts of aggression against the country itself, CNN reported. When asked whether, after annexation documents are signed, Russia would perceive attacks by Ukrainian forces on annexed territories as an act of aggression against Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "It won't be anything else."

• Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Liz Truss said the UK will "never accept" four occupied regions in Ukraine as anything other than Ukrainian territory, ahead of a Kremlin ceremony during which Russia is expected to formally annexthe areas. “Putin cannot be allowed to alter international borders using brute force. We will ensure he loses this illegal war."

• Ukrainian officials say 25 people have been killed and 28 injured in a horrific attack by Russian forces on a convoy leaving the city of Zaporizhzhia. All are civilians. Head of oblast administration: "People were standing in line to leave the temporarily occupied territory, to pick up their relatives, to take help. There are dead & wounded. Rescuers, medics, & all relevant services are currently working at the site.“

• Russian Navy ships were spotted by European security officials on Monday and Tuesday near the area where the Nord Stream pipelines are leaking. The sighting comes as a fourth leak has been discovered, Sweden's coast guard said Thursday. The leaks, likely caused by underwater explosions, have been described by NATO's chief and several European leaders as "acts of sabotage." The Kremlin said claims it targeted the pipelines are "absurd” - CNN

• Analysis on the pipeline incident by Elizabeth Braw of the American Enterprise Institute: “Russia has, of course, not yet been officially identified as the culprit but officials and politicians seem convinced the explosions were Russian sabotage of the pipelines – which were, of course, not in use and faced an idle future. Whatever may have been Russia’s ulterior motive, one thing is clear: harming other countries’ environment is brilliant grayzone aggression. As you’re all well aware, I’ve over the years highlighted China’s long-distance fishing fleet, which not only depletes other countries’ fish stocks but ruins their seabeds as well; and China’s excavator corps that digs up Taiwanese sand. The Nord Stream explosions, which are causing serious gas leaks and methane emissions, are just the latest example of this tactic. It’s so clever also because targeted countries are hardly going to retaliate, by say, sending fleets to take China’s fish or its sand, or avenge gas leaks by causing corresponding gas leaks.”

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to his compatriots to stop President Putin from waging war. “The cost of one person in Russia wanting to continue this war will be that all Russian society will be left without a normal economy, without a decent life, and without respect for any human values," Zelensky said in his daily address. “This can still be stopped. But to stop it, you have to stop the one person in Russia who wants war more than life. Your life, citizens of Russia."

• The battle for the critical Donbas region in Ukraine’s east is now centered on two strategically important cities: Lyman and Bakhmut. The fighting is fierce as both Russian and Ukrainian forces race to claim new ground before winter sets in - NYT

• Threat of Russia using tactical nukes is very high, Ukraine’s intelligence says. Ukraine’s military intelligence put the threat of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine at “very high”, representative of Ukraine’s intelligence Vadym Skibitskyi told the Guardian.
  “They will likely target places along the frontlines with lots of [army] personal and equipment, key command centres and critical infrastructure,” said Skibitskyi, about Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons. “In order to stop them we need not just more anti-aircraft systems, but anti-rocket systems,” he added. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov earlier said that there is a risk of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons, but their quality and condition raise questions.

• France plans to train Ukrainian soldiers in Poland. The French military is expected to be stationed in Poland, where they will conduct 5-week training in special army camps. Training can begin by the end of the year - Le Monde