WAR IN UKRAINE: August 15, 2022
Here in Lviv, a moving display of diplomas that will never be given to young people who’ve died as a result of Russian aggression in Ukraine
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 173
Russian media are reporting the Ukrainian army destroyed a Wagner Group military base in occupied Popasna, Luhansk Oblast. Earlier a Russian propagandist published detailed pictures of the base in his telegram channel. The Ukrainian military reportedly used the pictures to geolocate Wagner base - NV Media
Russia is continuing to deny that the massive explosions at a Crimean military base at Saki that destroyed up to nine of its warplanes were caused by an attack. As the Institute for the Study of War noted, “the Kremlin has little incentive to blame Ukraine” since, by doing so, it will admit to serious weaknesses in Russia’s air-defence system.“
Poland has announced that it will stop issuing visas to Russian citizens. The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs also announced that it is joining Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Denmark in the effort to launch an EU-wide ban on issuing tourist visas for Russians. The news was announced by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Piotr Wawrzyk.
If an EU-wide visa ban on Russians be implemented it would impact a narrow but important slice of Russian society: the elites closest to the Kremlin and middle to upper class who presumably support the war or do not oppose it. " Ordinary Russians don't travel to Europe, as 70 percent of them dont even have travel passports. “Travelling to Europe is popular among the Russian elites and Moscow & St Peresburg middle class. These are the people Putin tries to convince he has everyting under control. And some of them Russia uses for corrupting the Westerners, projecting Russian ‘soft power.’ Many of them don't support the war but most of them think they have nothing to do with it. This is why they need to feel at least some discomfort,” writes a member of Estonia’s parliament foreign affairs committee Eerik Kross on Twitter.
Poland’s army of volunteers flags as Ukraine ‘refugee fatigue’ sets in: When millions of refugees flooded across its border in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland was hailed as a role model. Almost overnight its citizens formed a grassroots volunteer army to help the displaced, donated money and welcome Ukrainians into their homes. There has been a slowdown in arrivals since the February 24 invasion but the need remains acute — and the flow of assistance is drying up, with aid activists saying “refugee fatigue” has taken hold. Read the full Financial Times article here
As western sanctions hit Russia deeper, airlines such as Aeroflot and Transaero are being forced to cannibalise aircraft for spare parts. Watch the Reuters report here
On July 28, a series of horrifying videos circulated on pro-Russian social media which depicted an act of sexual violence and execution of what appeared to be a Ukrainian prisoner of war. Bellingcat’s investigation into visual clues in the videos using the available open source evidence corroborates the authenticity of the three violent videos and indicates that fighters from ‘Akhmat’, a Chechen paramilitary formation serving with the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, were present at the scene of the murder. Read more of their investigation here
Required reading…
Lawrence Freedman is Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London. Here is the last paragraph of his latest Substack blog:
“Moscow appears to wish to incorporate seized territory into Russia, for which they are preparing some dubious procedures that will impress nobody but themselves. Deep down for Moscow the war may now be all about denying NATO the satisfaction of a Ukrainian victory and saving Putin’s face. There is nonetheless something increasingly desperate about Russian rhetoric and behaviour. The Russian military position is deteriorating and the West’s backing for Ukraine has yet to slacken. The trends therefore favour Ukraine. At some Putin and his cronies will have to work out how long they can continue to pretend that they have a credible path to victory.”
Read the full blog post here