WAR IN UKRAINE: December 2, 2022
A work by Banksy north of Kyiv which was the target of a theft attempt
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 282
The European Union has reached a consensus on the price at which to cap Russian oil just days before its ban on most imports comes into force. News of the deal, which had needed approval from holdout Poland, was confirmed on Twitter by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, marking a key milestone in the West’s efforts to punish President Vladimir Putin without adding to stress on the global economy. “Today, the European Union, the G7 and other global partners have agreed to introduce a global price cap on seaborne oil from Russia,” von der Leyen said, adding that it would strengthen sanctions on Russia, diminish Moscow’s revenues and stabilize energy markets by allowing EU-based operators to ship the oil to third-party countries provided it is priced below the cap” - CNN
A senior Ukrainian official said that between 10,000 and 13,000 of its soldiers had been killed since the start of Russia's invasion on 24 February.
Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu in Rome on Ukraine war: Türkiye rejects Ukraine war from beginning; We don't accept annexation & consider it illegal; We could have clearer picture about negotiations by spring, we’ll continue our efforts - TRT World
Russia says the West's refusal to recognise "new territories" seized from Ukraine makes peace talks harder, after President Joe Biden indicated he would be ready to meet Vladimir Putin. Separately, On Friday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to President Putin for the first time since September. During the hour-long call, Berlin said the German leader had urged his counterpart to find a diplomatic solution that involved pulling Russian troops out of Ukraine "as soon as possible" - BBC
After more than 230 Russian soldiers were killed, Russian forces are withdrawing from several settlements in Zaporizhzhia region - Polohy, Inzhenerne, Mykhailivka - opening an opportunity for Ukraine to re-capture Berdyansk & Mariupol. Source: Gen. Staff of Ukr. Armed Forces
Russia is now using nuclear-capable missiles with non-explosive warheads to exhaust Ukraine's air defences, the Ukrainian military has said. It displayed what it said were fragments of Soviet-made X-55 cruise missiles - designed for nuclear use - found in Ukraine's two western regions. The rockets are being launched to "exhaust the air-defence system of our country," a Ukrainian official said. He said tests on the fragments did not show abnormal levels of radioactivity - BBC
An explosion was heard in the center of Odessa on Friday evening local time. According to preliminary information, 2-3 unidentified persons threw a grenade during the arrest by the police. Rescuers are on the scene - Trukha
European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova, who is responsible for efforts to combat online disinformation, has warned billionaire Elon Musk about possible assistance to the Russian regime if Twitter does not root out Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine. According to Jourova, it is necessary to ensure that Twitter does not become a hub for Russian propaganda. “By not acting actively against the propaganda, which means to remove the pieces of propaganda, the disinformation, then you are actively supporting the war," she said - Ukrainska Pravda
The head of the Kyiv region, Oleksiy Kuleba, confirmed an attempt to steal Banksy graffiti in Gostomel. The thieves reportedly cut the work from a house destroyed by Russians, but were detained on the spot. “The graffiti is not damaged and is in the possession of law enforcement” - Strana
Estonia just approved its latest military assistance package to Ukraine. It also includes a good example of cooperation with allies. “We're donating a mobile field hospital together with the Netherlands and Norway,” says the prime minister
Required reading…
As Putin retreats in Ukraine, he is also losing Kazakhstan
By Kamila Auyezova
Russia’s carefully choreographed political talk shows are notorious for their anti-Ukrainian invective, but in late November the target was Kazakhstan. “We must pay attention to the fact that Kazakhstan is the next problem, because the same Nazi processes can start there as in Ukraine,” commented one pundit on the prime time Evening with Vladimir Solovyov show. Russian officials subsequently criticizedthis thinly veiled threat, but many observers noted that in the tightly controlled world of Kremlin propaganda, such sensitive statements are unlikely to have been made without some form of prior approval.
The incident highlights rising concern in the Kremlin as the invasion of Ukraine continues to erode Russia’s position elsewhere in the former Soviet Empire. The most prominent shift since the onset of the invasion has been in relations with Kazakhstan, which has demonstrated its desire to distance itself from an increasingly isolated Moscow and pursue a more assertive multi-vector foreign policy with closer ties to China, Turkey, and the West.
Read the full Atlantic Council analysis here