WAR IN UKRAINE: February 24, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 366
Just after 5am this morning exactly one year ago today, Ukrainians nationwide woke up to the sounds of Russian missiles, artillery, aircraft. On my overnight Kyiv-bound train, I saw many women and children returning home from stays abroad. On Telegram, there was a call to “stand to the end.” Above this first post you can view a short video about some of my reflections from the past year - of a war which I’ve characterized as ‘history repeating itself.’
Over the first year of the full-scale invasion, Russian troops have carried out almost 5,000 missile strikes and 3,500 air strikes against Ukraine, according to General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksii Hromov. Russia also used drones to attack Ukrainian settlements nearly 1,000 times since it started its all-out war on Feb. 24 last year - Kyiv Independent
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia "must lose in Ukraine" as Moscow's full-scale invasion entered its second year on February 24 amid heavy fighting in the east and south, while Ukraine's Western allies marked the anniversary by announcing more military aid for Kyiv.
The U.S. Defense Department announced an additional $2 billion in "security assistance" for Ukraine, a package that includes ammunition for HIMARS rocket systems and other weaponry, high-tech drones, mine-clearing equipment, and funds for training - RFE/RL
A 12-point position paper from China’s Foreign Ministry calling for a cease-fire between Kyiv and Moscow has been met with skepticism and experts and Western officials say it will do little to dispel the notion that Beijing is on Russia’s side. Read the story by RFE/RL’s Reid Standish here.
Essential reading…
Invasion anniversary: Does Putin still have a pathway to victory in Ukraine?
When Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he was expecting a brief and triumphant campaign that would extinguish Ukrainian independence and secure his place in Russian history among the country’s greatest rulers. One year on, it is now clear that his decision to invade was one of the biggest geopolitical blunders of the modern era.
Putin’s disastrous miscalculations reflect a leader increasingly detached from reality and surrounded by a shrinking circle of sycophants intent on telling him what he wants to hear. The delusional Russian dictator appears to have been convinced that Ukrainian military resistance would crumble in a matter of days and genuinely expected invading Russian troops to be welcomed as liberators. Instead, his own army has suffered catastrophic losses amid a series of battlefield defeats that have shattered Russia’s reputation as a military superpower.
The strength and tenacity of Ukraine’s national resistance has stunned Putin and made a mockery of his claims to be “returning historic Russian lands.” Nevertheless, as the war enters its second year, he shows no signs of abandoning his imperial ambitions. In recent months, Putin has moved to replenish the ranks of his depleted army by launching Russia’s first mobilization since World War II. Meanwhile, earlier attempts to shield the Russian public from the horrors of the invasion have been replaced by grim warnings to expect a long and bitter war.
While Putin continues to publicly insist he will achieve his objectives in Ukraine, many commentators are now questioning whether the Russian military retains the capability to mount large-scale offensive operations. Russia’s recent mobilization has generated an additional 300,000 troops, but much of this intake is poorly trained and appears prone to rapid demoralization. Moscow’s hopes of a collapse in international support for Ukraine also look unrealistic. Ukraine’s partners have begun 2023 by significantly expanding the range of weapons they are prepared to supply, while US President Joe Biden’s recent Kyiv visit was designed to send a strong signal of unwavering Western resolve.
Despite the setbacks of the past twelve months, Russia continues to enjoy considerable advantages over Ukraine in terms of both destructive power and sheer numbers. Could this eventually be enough to turn the tide in Moscow’s favor? As the invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, the Atlantic Council asked a range of experts whether Putin still has a pathway to victory in Ukraine.
Read the full Atlantic Council commentary - including from me - here