WAR IN UKRAINE: February 7, 2023
The first of Canada’s Leopard 2 main battle tanks departs for Ukraine
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 349
Russian forces in eastern Ukraine appear to be stockpiling ammunition and building up troop reserves ahead of an offensive that could begin in weeks, Ukraine’s top official in the Luhansk region has said. The Russians “are bringing in ammunition, but they do not waste as much of it as they used to,” Serhiy Hayday, head of Luhansk region military administration, said Monday on VotTak television. “Meaning they are saving ammunition load because they are getting ready for the full-scale offensive," he added. Hayday said that the Russian military continues to mass mobilized troops in Ukraine. He said he believes there are tens of thousands of mobilized troops in the occupied Luhansk region, not including regular army personnel like paratroopers. The major threat is the quantity,” he said Tuesday on Apostrophe TV. “It is a huge monster which is at war with us, and it owns immense resources – not endless, but still. There are too many of them” CNN
Ukraine’s defense minister, whose continued tenure has been questioned by the leader of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party in parliament, on Tuesday posted the message “holding the line” on Twitter. “Thank you all for your support, as well as constructive criticism,” Oleksii Reznikov said. “We draw conclusions. We continue the reforms. Even during the war. We are strengthening the defense and working for victory. Glory to Ukraine!” - CNN
While it is unknown if Russia can capture Bakhmut in Ukraine, Russian forces might need a period of time to recover from the grinding fight if it ultimately seizes the long-embattled city, according to an expert. Russia has conducted a monthslong effort to capture Bakhmut in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region but so far has failed to seize control of the city. Russian and Ukrainian forces have reportedly suffered heavy losses in the fight. Additionally, the city has experienced enormous damage, according to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in December that Russian forces had "actually destroyed" Bakhmut in the fighting. Dan Soller, a former U.S. Army intelligence colonel, told Newsweek that it's still an "open question" as to whether Russia can secure Bakhmut. "Ukraine appears to valiantly defend Bakhmut to prevent giving up more terrain to Russia and also to inflict heavy losses on Russian troops, a.k.a. attempting to bleed them white," Soller said. "However, both sides have suffered heavy casualties over the past month” - Newsweek
Lawmaker: Defense minister won't be fired this week. There will be no dismissals or appointments at the Defense Ministry this week, lawmaker David Arakhamia said in a Telegram post on Feb. 6 - Kyiv Independent
Russian invading forces continue to launch attacks along the front lines in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv’s military reported on February 7, as Ukrainian officials continued to warn that Moscow was preparing for a fresh offensive in the region. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been invited to take part in a summit of European Union leaders - RFE/RL
The UN's emergency relief coordinator, Martin Griffiths, said that nearly 8 million people have fled Ukraine since the beginning of Russia's invasion almost a year ago.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harrisis expected to discuss Washington's future support for Ukraine when she travels to a major security conference in Germany next week.
Required reading…
Ukrainians are united in rejection of any compromise with the Kremlin
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will pass the one-year mark in the coming weeks with no end in sight to what is already the largest European conflict since World War II. Vladimir Putin initially envisaged a small, victorious war that would extinguish Ukrainian independence and force the country back into the Kremlin orbit. Instead, his armies have suffered a series of disastrous defeats that have shattered Russia’s reputation as a military superpower.
Despite the difficulties encountered in Ukraine, Putin has little choice but to continue with his invasion. The Russian dictator knows that unless he is able to rescue the situation, his regime may not survive. However, following the setbacks of the past year, many commentators now question Russia’s ability to achieve its military objectives.
With Putin’s army dangerously depleted by months of punishing losses in both men and armor, it is unclear whether Russia is currently capable of large-scale offensive operations. While major new advances cannot be ruled out, the Kremlin appears to be pinning significant hopes on weakening Ukraine’s will to resist while undermining international support for the country. The end goal is a compromise peace that would allow Russia to secure its current territorial gains in Ukraine while providing vital breathing space to rebuild Putin’s battered military.
Read the full Atlantic Council analysis here