WAR IN UKRAINE: January 11, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 322
Russia's mercenary Wagner Group has claimed control over the town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine - but Kyiv says its soldiers are holding out. Russia's media carried a statement purported to be by the Wagner head, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who said Ukrainians were now encircled in the city centre. Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar earlier said that "heavy fighting is continuing". The claims by both sides have not been independently verified - BBC
Ukrainian troops are set to begin training on the Patriot missile system in the United States as soon as next week, the Pentagon announced on Tuesday. The training program will take place at Fort Sill in Oklahoma, where the US conducts its own training on operating and maintaining the advanced air defense system. Fort Sill is one of the Army’s four basic training locations and home to the service’s field artillery school, which has been training service members for more than a century. CNN first reported the news earlier on Tuesday, with two US officials familiar with the matter saying the decision had been made to begin training in the US.
The number of Russian troops killed since the start of their invasion of Ukraine has passed 110,000, according to the Ukrainian armed forces. In an update on Saturday, the Ukrainian defense ministry said that 530 Russian troops had been killed over the previous 24 hours, taking the total since the war began on February 24, 2022 to 110,250. The update also said that 23 tanks and 16 armored vehicles had been destroyed, taking the total number of losses to those pieces of equipment to 3,064 and 6,124 respectively - Newsweek
Canada announces it will buy a US-made National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) for Ukraine. No additional details - such as total cost or delivery date were provided - but it is safe to assume some strong-arming from the White House was involved after Canada’s initial weak Ukraine response. The announcement was made at the U.S.-Canada-Mexico summit after a bilateral between U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The NASAMS don’t come cheap. Many variables can be implied but a rough cost is US$202 million per unit. Each missile clocks in at a cool US$1-million. The Pentagon has said U.S.-provided NASAMS air defense systems have had a 100% success rate in Ukraine intercepting Russian missiles. NASAM missile have a maximum range of roughly 40kms so they wouldn’t be effective for targets deep inside Russia.
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its 11th month, US and Ukrainian officials tell CNN that Russia’s artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75%. US and Ukrainian officials don’t yet have a clear or singular explanation. Russia may be rationing artillery rounds due to low supplies, or it could be part of a broader reassessment of tactics in the face of successful Ukrainian offenses. Either way, the striking decline in artillery fire is further evidence of Russia’s increasingly weak position on the battlefield nearly a year into its invasion, US and Ukrainian officials told CNN. It also comes as Ukraine is enjoying increased military support from its western allies, with the US and Germany announcing last week that they will be providing Ukrainian forces for the first time with armored fighting vehicles, as well as another Patriot Defense missile battery that will help protect its skies - CNN
Almost 1,500 Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant employees not allowed to enter facility. The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on Jan. 11 that Russian occupation forces exert "moral and physical pressure" on the population of the occupied territories. Nearly 1,500 employees of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, who refused to receive Russian passports and sign an agreement with Rosatom, are denied passes and access to the facility - Kyiv Independent
In November of last year, Turkey began to secretly transfer to Ukraine cluster munitions produced during the "Cold War" - however, it is currently unknown whether the Ukrainian military used them on the battlefield. “This weapon is designed to destroy tanks by breaking up into smaller submunitions that can remain on the battlefield for years if not detonated immediately. Each round scatters about 88 smaller submunitions," Foreign Policy said.
Required reading…
Putin’s faltering Ukraine invasion exposes limits of Russian propaganda
As the Russian attack on Ukraine approaches the one-year mark, it is increasingly clear that Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade was one of the biggest geopolitical blunders of the modern era. The Russian dictator initially expected a short and victorious war. Instead, Putin’s faltering invasion has transformed him into an international pariah and shattered Russia’s reputation as a military superpower. How could he have got it so wrong?
The scale of the miscalculations that led to the invasion was laid bare in a recent New York Times article entitled: “How Putin’s war in Ukraine became a catastrophe for Russia.” This lengthy report featured details of the often wildly unrealistic objectives set for the invading Russian army, with specific units expected to advance hundreds of kilometers through hostile country and occupy towns deep inside Ukraine within a matter of days.
Read the full Atlantic Council analysis here