WAR IN UKRAINE: July 16, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 508
Another Russian general, Vladimir Selivyorstov, who commanded the 106th Airborne Division, has reportedly been fired in the latest shakeup in the military since Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin launched a short-lived mutiny three weeks ago.
In the Kherson region, two children were detonated with explosives, both were hospitalized - OVA
The New York Times reported on July 15 that Ukraine has suffered significant losses of equipment, including Bradley fighting vehicles and Leopard tanks, in the first weeks of its counteroffensive, citing Western officials - RFE/RL
A civilian was killed and another wounded in Russian shelling in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, while seven were injured in a village in Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian officials said. Meanwhile, Russia's Defence Ministry said that it had thwarted a Ukrainian drone attack attempt near the port of Sevastopol in Crimea - TRT
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and the Ukrainian territories it occupies, in centers ranging from brand-new wings in Russian prisons to clammy basements. Most have no status under Russian law. And Russia is planning to hold possibly thousands more. A Russian government document obtained by The Associated Press dating to January outlined plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree in May allowing Russia to send people from territories with martial law, which includes all of occupied Ukraine, to those without, such as Russia. This makes it easier to deport Ukrainians who resist Russian occupation deep into Russia indefinitely, which has happened in multiple cases documented by the AP.
Required reading…
From Ukraine’s top commander Zaluzhnyi's interview with the Washington Post…
By Tymofiy Mylovanov - President of the Kyiv School of Economics; Advisor to Zelensky Administration
“… it became strikingly clear to me why Ukraine is unjustly disadvantaged. How could anyone possibly expect Ukraine to prevail or even manage a successful counteroffensive if Ukraine isn’t allowed to strike Russian territory with Western weapons. That’s a western condition for support.
Russia strikes deep into Ukrainian territory all the time, but Ukraine is not allowed to retaliate. That’s like fighting with tied hands.
This condition is ridiculous and self-defeating. First, in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv region where Ukraine has reclaimed its territory up to the border, what does it mean in practical terms that Ukraine is not allowed to strike Russian territory?
Well, it means that Russia can shoot with artillery, mortars, helicopters, missiles etc from its territory, but Ukraine can’t retaliate. It simply means that Ukrainian people become defenseless victims and can’t target launch sites, warehouses, and supply routes. Russia can shoot all it want. Ukraine can’t respond because of “the fear of escalation.” It also means that Russia can accumulate troops next to the Ukrainian border and attack any time. Ukraine can’t strike these units to disperse them and prevent them from building up a critical force. The only response Ukraine has is to build up its own troops and expose them to being hit from Russia. What kind of warfare is that?
Finally, in the areas with intense fighting on the territory of Ukraine, Russians positions their weapons and supplies on the Russian territory whenever they can. And if Ukrainians are not allowed to hit those,
Then it means that Russia will use them on Ukraine.
Russia uses the threat of “escalation” to severely disadvantage Ukraine. And the West is buying into it.
Zaluzhnyi lists other examples of disadvantages :
1. No air superiority or parity. F16s won’t arrive before next year.
2. Ukraine has a thrift of artillery shells that Russia has. And is it fires back much less.
3. Ukraine doesn’t have cruise missiles that Russia launches daily on Ukraine.
What is then to do?
Zaluzhnyi says he uses weapons made in Ukraine for the strikes across the border that Kyiv never officially acknowledges as its own. “To save my people, why do I have to ask someone for permission what to do on enemy territory? For some reason, I have to think that I’m not allowed to do anything there. Why? Because Putin will … use nuclear weapons? The kids who are dying don’t care. Zaluzhnyi outlines what is a natural response to the constraints Ukraine faces: build and use your own weapons to strike Russia on its territory.
As I said multiple times, Russian commanders and elites who give out killing orders should face life-threatening consequences. Without that and without the ability to strike logistical centers, supply routes, production facilities deep inside Russia, Ukraine will continue to be disadvantaged in this war, the war will be prolonged, and the world will be less safe.