WAR IN UKRAINE: July 22, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 513
Russian military airfield near Simferopol, Crimea, hit this morning, with secondary explosions. Car traffic over the Kerch bridge closed again. Russian authorities also reportedly halted traffic on the main Crimean railway and evacuate residents from the 5km radius of the targeted ammunition depot. Explosions caused fire at Elevatorna railway station, Oktyabrske village, a resident tells Suspilne News. An eventful morning in Crimea.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on July 21 that the Crimea bridge connecting Russia with occupied Crimea "must be neutralized." Meanwhile, Ukraine and Turkey are discussing the possibility of reviving the Black Sea grain agreement, Zelensky said on July 21 after a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Igor Strelkov, a prominent critic of the Ministry of Defence as well as of Putin and Shoigu, has been detained. This is a moment many within the siloviki have eagerly awaited. Strelkov had overstepped all conceivable boundaries a long time ago, sparking the desire among security forces — from the FSB to military chiefs — to apprehend him. The complaint came from a former commander of the Wagner Group. At this point, the source of the accusation is inconsequential — it does not come from Wagner in its current, let's put it softly, difficult state. Strelkov's arrest undeniably serves the interests of the Ministry of Defence. This is a direct outcome of Prigozhin's mutiny: the army's command now wields greater political leverage to quash its opponents in the public sphere. It's unlikely that there will be massive repressions against 'angry patriots,' but the most vehement dissenters may face prosecution, serving as a cautionary tale for others” - Tatiana Stanovaya, R.Politik
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted his military’s counteroffensive against Russian forces was about to “gain pace”, as he sought to reassure western governments that have grown alarmed at the slow progress of the operation. The weeks-old effort to push back Russian forces in Ukraine had begun later than Kyiv had hoped, said Zelenskyy, due to insufficient munitions, armaments and properly trained brigades, which had given Russia time to lay mines and build defensive lines. But momentum on the front was about to shift, Zelenskyy added, while reiterating his call for allies to supply more long-range missiles and advanced fighter jets. “We are approaching a moment when relevant actions can gain pace because we are already going through some mines locations and we are demining these areas,” he said. The Ukrainian leader was speaking by video to international security leaders at the four-day Aspen Security Forum, where the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive to push back Russian forces in eastern and southern Ukraine dominated discussions - FT
In the center of Moscow on Friday, a spontaneous rally of Muslims took place against police raids in mosques. Believers are dissatisfied with the fact that, under the guise of checking documents to identify illegal immigrants, police officers come to mosques right during prayer, interrupting a religious ceremony, do not take off their shoes before entering, and behave rudely. The march, which was attended by several dozen people, started at the historic mosque on Bolshaya Tatarskaya Street. According to the Podyom telegram channel, the police have stepped up security at the mosque and its surroundings, but no arrests have been reported. Muslims came out to protest after midday Friday prayers. They chanted: "Allah is great." - Radio Svoboda
For the past six months, Ukrainian soldiers and volunteers in the Dnipropetrovsk region have been recycling weapons left behind by Russian soldiers pushed back by Ukraine's counteroffensive. “A thousand rockets were just lying there,” Ukrainian soldier Stepan told FRANCE 24. “The Russians left them behind, so we took them.” Stocked in a workshop, the equipment is refurbished, repurposed and eventually used on the Ukrainian front line. As the front line slowly moves forward, the workshop goes with them.
Required reading…
Dispatch from Odesa: Russia escalates its naval war against Ukraine
In recent days, the front line of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine appears to have shifted south toward the Black Sea—placing major port cities such as Mykolaiv and Odesa directly in the crosshairs of a Russian naval buildup that began just before its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
While exact numbers are difficult to come by, the bulk of recent missile strikes on Ukrainian targets such as Odesa have originated in the Black Sea. One estimate put the Russian amphibious assault ship increase at the start of the full-scale invasion as equivalent of an additional one-and-a-half battalion tactical groups. Earlier this week, Russia carried out a live fire “exercise” against potential maritime targets in the northwestern part of the sea.
Read my full analysis in The New Atlanticist here