WAR IN UKRAINE: July 9, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 501
Several allies of the US have expressed unease at Washington's decision to supply Ukraine with cluster bombs. On Friday, the US confirmed it was sending the controversial weapons to Ukraine, with President Joe Biden calling it a "very difficult decision". In response, the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Spain all said they were opposed to the use of the weapons. Cluster bombs have been banned by more than 100 countries because of the danger they pose to civilians. When asked about his position on the US decision, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak highlighted that the UK was one of 123 countries that had signed up to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the production or use of the weapons and discourages their use. The prime minister of New Zealand - one of the countries that pushed for the convention's creation - went further than Mr Sunak, according to comments published by local media. Spain's Defence Minister Margarita Robles told reporters her country had a "firm commitment" that certain weapons and bombs could not be sent to Ukraine. The Canadian government said it was particularly concerned about the potential impact of the bombs - which sometimes lie undetonated for many years - on children. Meanwhile, Germany, a signatory of the treaty, said that while it would not provide such weapons to Ukraine, it understood the American position - BBC
The commanding officers who defended the Azovstal plant in Mariupol will be returning home from Turkey, where they had been kept after a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky's office announced on July 8 - Kyiv Independent
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War have seen no signs that the Russian authorities have expelled or detained commanders or ordinary members of the Wagner Group who took part in the rebellion in Russia. "Putin continues to allow Wagner and Prigozhin to operate in Russia and potentially pose a threat to his regime. Allowing Prigozhin, his commanders, and as many as 25,000 Wagner fighters who led and participated in the armed rebellion apparent full freedom of movement and communication in Russia shows that Putin has either remarkable (and unwarranted) confidence in their renewed loyalty, desperation to lure as many as possible to his side, or an inability to take action against them." The ISW has stressed that the consequences of the armed rebellion remain unclear for the Wagner Group and Prigozhin, but Ukraine has already benefited from it. "Putin’s handling of the Wagner Group – Russia's most effective fighting force at this time – following the June 24 rebellion will likely keep them from fighting in Ukraine for the duration of the current Ukrainian counteroffensive and may permanently degrade Russia’s overall capability to wage war in Ukraine," the ISW said. The ISW has also noted that the Wagner Group's hasty withdrawal from Bakhmut undermined Russian positions in the area and contributed to the tactically important gains that Ukrainian forces made around the city.
False and misleading posts about the Ukraine conflict continue to go viral on major social media platforms, as Russia's invasion of the country extends beyond 500 days. Some of the most widely shared examples can be found on Twitter, posted by subscribers with a blue tick, who pay for their content to be promoted to other users. Many misleading posts have been shared online about the recent riots in France, but one viral post last week focused on US military aid to Ukraine. It featured a screenshot of what appeared to be a headline from a news website, along with an image of two rifles. "French police are fired upon with American rifles that may have come from Ukraine," reads the headline. Several Twitter accounts with Blue subscriptions have shared the post, which has been viewed more than a million times. BBC Verify has traced it back to pro-Kremlin channels on the Telegram messaging app. The image used in the post appears in a Russian military blog from 2012 about a shooting competition held on a firing range near Moscow. We have also been unable to find any online articles with the headline and picture as above, and there is no evidence any weapons provided to Ukraine by the US have been used during the recent unrest in France - BBC
Required reading
Wagner fallout: Time to begin preparing for a post-Putin Russia
By Oleksiy Goncharenko
The recent revolt by Russia’s Wagner Group was a short-lived affair but the repercussions continue to be felt throughout the Russian Federation and beyond. Perhaps the biggest single lesson from the aborted coup is the fragility of the Putin regime. For many years, the Kremlin has sought to present Vladimir Putin as a powerful and popular ruler exercising complete control over a loyal and disciplined power vertical. The Wagner uprising has now shattered this myth of Putin the strongman.
Ever since coming to power at the turn of the millennium, Putin has sought to portray himself as an uncompromising and macho leader. He has frequently employed vulgar slang when promising to dispatch his opponents, and has notoriously engaged in a series of PR stunts including posing topless on horseback and scuba-diving to “discover” ancient Greek urns. However, there was little sign of this tough guy persona during the early stages of the Wagner revolt in late June. As Wagner troops captured Rostov-on-Don and began to march on Moscow, the Russian dictator was nowhere to be seen. He did not appear until the second day of the mutiny, when he delivered a brief video address.
The Kremlin appears to recognize the seriousness of the situation, and has since embarked on an intensive post-putsch PR offensive designed to repair public perceptions of Putin. In the days following the Wagner drama, the Russian dictator has made a flurry of carefully choreographed appearances emphasizing national unity and regime stability. However, this sudden burst of activity has only served to highlight the damage done by Putin’s earlier absence. In a little over twenty-four hours, the Putin regime was exposed as significantly weaker than almost anybody had previously imagined. Despite the best efforts of the Kremlin propaganda machine, this fact is plain as day to both the international community and the Russian elite.
To read the full Atlantic Council Ukraine Alert analysis, click here