WAR IN UKRAINE: June 24, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 486
BREAKING NEWS: President Putin decries "betrayal" and "treason" following a dramatic challenge by the chief of the Wagner mercenary force. Prigozhin called for a rebellion against the army - although he has denied attempting a coup. Without mentioning Prigozhin by name, Putin vowed to punish those behind the armed mutiny. Wagner says it has taken the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don near the Ukraine border - residents have been told to stay indoors. Prigozhin has threatened to march on Moscow if he is not granted an audience with Russia's defence minister. On Friday night, security in Russia was tightened, the internet was restricted and military trucks were spotted on Moscow streets. Prigozhin accused the army of launching a deadly attack on his forces in Ukraine, where Wagner troops are fighting for Russia - Moscow denies this - BBC
Russia's security officials have introduced roadblocks around Moscow amid growing concerns about the risk of an attack on the capital. Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have provoked the response following an explosive audio recording released earlier this evening.
Security has been tightened in Moscow amid fears of unrest as senior Russian military figures speak out against Yevgeny Prigozhin, the powerful and outspoken leader of the Wagner mercenary group. Earlier a criminal investigation was opened into the man sometimes known as “Putin’s chef”, accusing him of calling for an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia's defence minister - The Independent
In his latest video tirade via Telegram, Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin blames Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for starting Russia's war in Ukraine in February last year. Speaking first about the fighting in eastern Ukraine that began in 2014 after Russia's military intervention, Prigozhin said: "We were hitting them, and they were hitting us. That's how it went on for those eight long years, from 2014 to 2022. Sometimes the number of skirmishes would increase, sometimes decrease." "On 24 February [2022] there was nothing extraordinary happening there. Now the Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us…The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star." Prigozhin also blamed the war on oligarchs, condemning "the clan which in practice rules Russia today" - BBC
Meanwhile in Ukraine overnight: debris from some 20 missiles fell on a high-rise building in the Solomyansk district in Kyiv: 3 people died and 8 injured, the Ministry of Internal Affairs said. In Dnipro, 8 people, including two children, were injured due to a rocket attack. Four private houses were completely destroyed, another 25 were damaged. In Kharkiv a gas pipe was hit. In all 41 missiles were fired by Russia.
Russia struck a public transport facility in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson on June 23, killing at least two people as Ukraine grappled with yet another wide-scale attack involving Russian cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones.
The European Council has adopted the 11th package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, extending some restrictions and adding dozens of new entities around the world to its list as it tries to stop other countries and companies from circumventing previously imposed measures - RFE/RL
One of the last arteries carrying Russian gas to Europe could be shut off by the end of next year when Ukraine’s supply contract with Gazprom expires, the Ukrainian energy minister has said. In an interview with the Financial Times, German Galushchenko said that the chances of Kyiv and Moscow agreeing the renewal of the five-year transit contract first signed in 2019 were slim — even though the route through Ukraine accounts for almost 5 per cent of Europe’s total gas imports. “I really can’t imagine how it could be bilaterally,” Galushchenko said when asked if Ukraine would be prepared to renegotiate the agreement with Moscow following last year’s invasion. “I can tell you that we are preparing our system for a cut of supplies,” he added. Moscow’s decision to slash gas supply to Europe last year triggered an energy crisis, stoking inflation and raising the cost of living across the continent. But while several routes were shut off, the Ukrainian pipeline is one of just two that have continued to supply gas, albeit at reduced volumes - FT
The Duke of Sussex reportedly pitched a podcast to Spotify that would have seen him interviewing figures such as Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump about their “childhood trauma”. Prince Harry spoke to a number of producers and production houses to come up with a potential podcast series for the audio streaming platform, according to Bloomberg.
Required reading…
Prospects for Ukraine to end-2023 (Oxford Analytica)
The next six months promise to bring further improvements for the macroeconomy but not an end to the war with Russia
The second calendar year since Russia’s full-scale invasion, 2023 has been widely viewed as a defining moment for Ukraine’s future. This perception can only increase. Essentially, the question is whether Ukraine will be able to make sufficient military gains in order to avoid having to fight -- with all the associated risks and consequences for its economy -- what has already become a war of attrition.
What next
Fighting on the main war fronts for the rest of 2023 is likely to be heavier and more intense but inconclusive. There is no guarantee that Kyiv’s long-planned counter-offensive will be efficient, let alone decisive. Compared with Ukraine’s successes last year, Russia’s defences in the occupied territories are reportedly strong. Given a lingering military stalemate and assuming no new war-related shocks, the economy should continue to function as predicted so far.