WAR IN UKRAINE: June 7, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 469
Ukrainian forces have advanced in "various sections of the Bakhmut direction", the country's deputy defence minister has said. Hanna Maliar said troops had switched from being defensive to offensive in the area, in eastern Ukraine. Russia said it had defeated Ukrainian attacks near the city, which fell under Russian control in May - BBC
Evacuations from flooded parts of the Kherson region continue after a major dam was breached yesterday. Ukrainian officials have warned that some 42,000 people are at risk from flooding, with water levels expected to peak in Kherson today. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that hundreds of thousands of people have been left without drinking water
The U.S. has intelligence that is indicates Russia is likely responsible for the attack on the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine, reports NBC. Separately, the dam in Kherson Oblast was blown up by Russia's 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade, Ukraine National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksii Danilov said on June 6, as cited by Ukrainian news outlet Liga.
Tens of thousands of hectares of agricultural land in southern Ukraine will be flooded as a result of the dam being breached, the country's agricultural ministry has predicted. It warns that at least 500,000 hectares of land left without irrigation could be turned into "deserts". That's an area more than three times the size of London, which covers an area close to 160,000 hectares - BBC
Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of the Kherson Oblast administration, said that after the explosion of the Kakhovska HPP, as of this morning, 1,852 houses in the right-bank Kherson region have already been flooded, and due to the significant destruction of the dam, more water will still arrive
The dam breach could be Ukraine’s ‘worst ecological disaster since Chornobyl’ says a Ukraine government official. But so far, it has forced the evacuation of thousands of people, flooded national parks, killed hundreds of zoo animals, and jeopardised water supplies to millions of people. In the worst-case scenario, it may pose a long-term danger to Europe’s biggest nuclear plant, Zaporizhzhia, and could also spread agrotoxins and petrochemicals into the Black Sea.
In his new Twitter show, Conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, who was recently sacked by FOX News, launched into a pro-Kremlin rant - claiming that it was Ukraine that blew up the Kakhovska HPP. He referred to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky as “sweaty and rat-like”, “a persecutor of Christians”, and in bed with American investment bankers. The bizarre commentary has racked up tens of millions of views and has been shared by Twitter owner Elon Musk, conservative American bloggers, MAGA Republicans in Congress, and the representative of Russia at the UN
Residents and visitors in Odesa have been warned to avoid swimming in the Black Sea for the foreseeable future due to fears over contamination from flood waters pushed from the Kakhovka Dam. Threats include agricultural chemicals, pesticides, harmful organic matter and petroleum products. Currently, the results of water testing are within normal limits, officials said. Access to the sea was already restricted due to the threat of sea mines and UXO.
Required reading…
Three questions (and expert answers) about the dam collapse in Ukraine
By Atlantic Council experts…
It’s set off a cascade of problems.
Early Tuesday, large sections of the Nova Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power plant in southern Ukraine gave way. Since 1956, the dam has pinched the Dnipro River, creating a massive reservoir upstream as far as Zaporizhzhia and, downstream, a succession of towns and villages along the river terminating in Kherson, all of which could now be flooded.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russian forces of blowing up the dam–a claim US intelligence reportedly appears to support. The Kremlin, which currently controls the area around the dam, has blamed Ukrainian forces.
Below, Atlantic Council experts answer our most pressing questions about what the damaged dam means for the ongoing war.
1. If Russia is behind the dam collapse, what would it reveal about Russian strategy and tactics at this stage in the war?
That they have no red lines that can’t be crossed and that they have no regard for human lives or ecology. I’m afraid that if the Russians are capable of blowing up such a large piece of critical infrastructure, they’re also capable of striking at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—the consequences of which would be horrific. There is little left in the West’s toolbox to restrain Russia, but a tightening of the noose of sanctions and providing Kyiv with all the fighting kit it is asking for would be a logical starting point - Michael Bociurkiw
Read the full analysis here