WAR IN UKRAINE: March 11, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 381
In some parts of Kyiv, stabilizing blackouts in effect; due to equipment damage from Thursday’s massive Russian missile attack, facilities cannot transmit energy to all buildings, says power distributor DTEK. Significant power shortages also in Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro regions
Chinese state-owned defense firms have maintained trade relationships with sanctioned Russian defense companies during the past year, even as many of the world’s leading economies cut ties with Moscow and the companies driving its continued assault on Ukraine. Customs records reviewed by CNN show that throughout 2022, through at least mid-November, Beijing-based defense contractor Poly Technologies sent at least a dozen shipments – including helicopter parts and air-to-ground radio equipment – to a state-backed Russian firm sanctioned by the US for its connection to leader Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
The US intelligence community believes that individuals with ties to Russian intelligence are planning to stage protests in Moldova to try to foment a manufactured insurrection against the Moldovan government, with the ultimate goal of seeing a more pro-Russia administration installed there, White House officials said Friday. The US believes that Russia is working to weaken the Moldovan government which is seeking closer ties with the European Union, the officials said. The US is also seeing signs that Russian government-linked actors could provide training to anti-government demonstrators in Moldova. The country’s capital, Chisinau, has been rocked by anti-government protests in recent weeks, largely organized by Moldova’s Russia-friendly Shor Party - CNN
Norway will provide Ukraine with two complete NASAMS firing units in cooperation with the United States. – Ukraine has a critical need to defend itself against missile attacks, and Norway will assist, says Norway’s minister of defence, Mr. Bjørn Arild Gram. They will come in addition to the two firing units provided by the United States last fall. NASAMS have proved to be an effective air defence system. Adding two more firing units will significantly improve Ukraine’s ability to protect its cities and critical infrastructure from Russian missile attacks. Norway will also train Ukrainian personnel in the maintenance and operation of the system.
March 18, 2023. On this date, the UN-brokered, July 2022 Black Sea grain deal will expire, threatening the security of Ukraine’s future grain exports. As of November 2022, the Turkish-run Joint Coordination Center has facilitated more than 11 million tons of grain and food exports through the Black Sea. Russia continues to throw wrenches into the negotiation process and raise questions about whether the deal can be renewed. Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov relayed that it would be “quite complicated” for Russia to renew the deal as it stands. Russia maintains that Western promises to protect Russian fertilizer and food exports from sanctions have only been “half fulfilled” throughout the deal. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres visited Ukraine this week to rally support for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, with no impact on the Russian negotiating position, since Russia maintains that sanctions continue to impact payments, logistics, and insurance industries related to Russian food and fertilizer exports - Thea Dunlevie
Oxford Analytica: Russia cannot easily seek peace while ignoring demands for reparations and war crimes accountability
The EU agreed on March 4 to establish an 'international centre' as a first step towards a tribunal that prosecutes Russia for 'crimes of aggression'. Aside from considering war crimes, Western leaders are also preparing to levy costs on Moscow for the damage it has done. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on February 18 that it was 'unthinkable' that Russia would not pay towards Ukraine's reconstruction.
What next
The end may be years off, but it is prudent for policymakers to plan for various scenarios, including even an unexpected early cessation of hostilities. Planning will encompass both the circumstances in which conflict ends and the mechanisms for pressuring Russia to pay for the death and destruction it has wrought.
Required listening…
Ukraine hit by hypersonic missiles
Hypersonic missiles have rained down across Ukraine as part of a major Russian offensive targeting cities including Kyiv.
Europe's biggest nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia has also been targeted by renewed shelling, temporarily cutting power to the facility for the sixth time.
Hear my extended interview on ABC’s Radio National breakfast show here