WAR IN UKRAINE: March 18, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 388
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. The court alleges he is responsible for war crimes, and has focused its claims on the unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia. My analysis: a highly symbolic move. Russia doesn’t subscribe to the rules based international order and has already reacted with a flippant response. The best we can expect is that if Russia's commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, also wanted by the ICC for the same crimes, becomes carefree and transits through a third country that’s a signatory to the ICC charter. In a way, the ruling can be seen as the West showing that it’s taken action against Putin and his inner circle, but in practical terms it is difficult to see the bigger upside. In the few hours after the news spread into Ukraine, among ordinary people there wasn’t much rejoicing.
Ukrainian fighters repulsed a fresh series of Russian assaults in Bakhmut and the surroundings of the city in the eastern region of Donetsk, Kyiv's military said early on March 17, while Russian shelling of settlements caused deaths among Ukrainian civilians.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Russia is extending a deal that allows Ukraine to export grain through its Black Sea ports for another 60 days.
Slovakia has joined Poland in deciding to give Ukraine Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets.
Russia has threatened to destroy any fighter jets given to Ukraine by its allies, after two countries promised planes. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov condemned the plans, saying that the aircraft would not affect the outcome of Moscow's "special military operation", as it calls the war. He said they would only "bring additional woes for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people…Of course, during the special military operation, all this equipment will be subject to destruction” - BBC
Although last year's recession was milder than expected, sanctions will limit recovery prospects going forward for Russia, says Oxford Analytica. Russian GDP contracted by 2.1% in 2022, according to the Rosstat statistical agency. The recession was far shallower than expected; early forecasts had predicted a contraction of up to 10%. However, economic decline will continue into 2023. Unprecedented sanctions will limit the Russian economy’s ability to recover, with the focus now on enforcement.
What next
A 1-3% GDP contraction is likely in 2023, but if oil output is cut by more than the 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) already announced, the recession could be deeper. Over the longer term, declining productivity and loss of human capital will add to the costs of the war. Falling oil and gas revenues will limit the government funds available for investment.
Required reading…
The Danger of Russia Becoming President of the U.N. Security Council
Next month, Russia—and by extension, Vladimir Putin—will assume the Presidency of the U.N. Security Council.
Known burglars are not given banks to run, nor are convicted sex offenders given charge of daycare centers. In the same vein, Putin should not be allowed to make a mockery of international diplomacy by becoming the face of global peace as he escalates his unjust invasion of Ukraine with new attacks daily.
The potential damage of a gavel-wielding Putin is hard to overstate. Even beyond its symbolic value; the Presidency of the U.N. Security Council carries very real institutional powerwithin the U.N., chairing all discussions, applying the rules, controlling the docket, schedule, and credentialing for all debates, and managing all draft resolutions. And Russia has proven adept in the past at abusing the vast procedural power of the Security Council Presidency.
Read the full Time analysis here