WAR IN UKRAINE: May 31, 2023

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 462

  • Four people injured in a "massive strike" on a town in Russia's southwestern Belgorod region, Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Telegram. Eight apartment buildings, four homes, a school and two administrative buildings were damaged in the shelling - BBC

  • Drones have also attacked two oil refineries in Russia, roughly 50 miles from some of the country's largest oil export terminals in the strategically important Black Sea region, the Krasnodar regional governor said. One of the attacks caused a fire at the Afipsky oil refinery, which was put out, and the other attack caused no damage, local officials said. The Afipsky refinery is about 50 miles east of Novorossisk, a Black Sea port that is home to a key Russian oil export terminal. The other drone attack hit the Ilsky refinery, Russia state media outlets reported, which is some 40 miles east of Novorossisk - CNBC

  • Russia has blamed Ukraine for the drone attack that injured two people and damaged several buildings, according to state media. Ukraine denied any direct involvement. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine "chose the path of intimidation," adding that "Kyiv provokes us to mirror actions."

  • In explaining how the drone attack could affect Putin's PR war, Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, told Newsweek that "if the Kremlin made a big deal about it, then the question of how Russian military and security forces [could] have allowed this to occur will arise." "Still, if there are more drone attacks on Moscow, then the Russian public will wonder: What about the effectiveness of how Russian forces are [doing] in Ukraine?" Katz noted a possible positive consequence could come for Putin from future drone attacks. "Russian civilian casualties, of course, could actually result in increased Russian public support—or lack of opposition—for the Kremlin's war effort," he said. Katz added that "perhaps later" such attacks could "start to undermine Russian public support for the continuation of the war" if the conflict "isn't resulting in Russian victory but is resulting in Russian casualties far from the front."

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and his recently re-elected Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet in the foreseeable future, Reuters reports the Kremlin as saying. No details were given as to where or when the meeting will be held. Putin sent Erdogan a message of congratulations after his re-election on Sunday, which saw the Turkish leader seal another five-year term to add to his two decades already in power. The Russian head of state called Erdogan a "dear friend" and thanked him for maintaining an independent foreign policy and for being an important partner to Russia - CNBC

  • Germany cancelled the permission for the activity of 4 of the 5 Russian consulates general in Germany, the German Foreign Ministry said, Bild reported. Russia is obliged to close diplomatic institutions by the end of 2023 - AFP

  • EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested NATO members should give Ukraine security guarantees in the form of "deterrence by denial" as a way of helping it defend itself short of NATO membership. That can be done by providing "military equipment that can fortify Ukraine against future Russian attacks," she said during a security conference in Bratislava, Slovakia. She stressed that there needs to be certainty that "Ukraine's friends would be there for the long term” - CNBC