WAR IN UKRAINE: May 17, 2022 — Michael Bociurkiw

T-shirts, mugs and other souvenirs celebrating Ukraine wartime victories are popular in shops in Lviv

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 83

A series of missile strikes in the Lviv region last night were described as the heaviest barrage since the war started. The missiles were apparently aimed at the joint NATO training base in Yavoriv near the Polish border. Air raid sirens were triggered just before midnight local times and local air defences lit up the sky as the incoming missiles were destroyed. This is the third time that Yavoriv, which is near the Polish border, was targeted. The regional governor said railway facilities had also been hit.
Meanwhile the daily British Intelligence Update echoes what I’ve been saying: Russia has likely resorted to an increasing reliance on indiscriminate artillery bombardment due to a limited target acquisition capability and an unwillingness to risk flying combat aircraft routinely beyond its own frontlines. Until Ukraine is given the capability to fully close its skies, not one inch of the country can be considered safe.
Azovstal siege appears to end. Denys Prokopenko, the commander of Azov special regiment, said on May 16 that Ukrainian soldiers at Azovstal have “fulfilled their orders” and “were distracting the Russian army for 82 days.” The statement appeared to signal the end of the siege of Azovstal, the steel plant that remains the last Ukrainian-held part of Mariupol. Russian media claimed on May 16 that an agreement was reached to evacuate heavily wounded soldiers from Azovstal to the Russian-occupied city of Novoazovsk. Reuters reported that about a dozen buses apparently carrying Ukrainian fighters left the plant - Kyiv Independent
The Ukrainian soldiers removed from Azovstal are by no means free as they remain on land controlled by the Russian-backed combatants in the Donbas region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said negotiations are underway for a prisoner swap but are complicated. My own strong suspicion is that Moscow will demand the handover of a Russian soldier currently being tried in Kyiv for alleged war crimes. This has happened previously when Russia demanded a person of interest in the MH17 trial - Vladimir Tsemakh - in a prisoner swap in September 2019.
264 Ukrainian soldiers were evacuated on from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to hospitals in Russian-occupied Novoazovsk and Olenivka. Of those evacuated, 53 heavily wounded soldiers will receive medical treatment in Novoazovsk, while 211 will be transferred to Olenivka to take part in an upcoming prisoner exchange, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Read the Kyiv Independent story here.
Western military sources say Vladimir Putin is now directly involved in the day-to-day running of the war, taking decisions normally made by more junior officers. Meanwhile Turkey's president suggests he could block Finland and Sweden's applications to join Nato, accusing them of harbouring terrorists - BBC
The Guardian: Putin has become so personally involved in the war in Ukraine that he makes operational and tactical decisions "at the level of a colonel or brigadier general."
Putin remains fully capable of undermining any steps Kyiv may take toward the West, writes Foreign Affairs. And as long as Russia can destabilize its neighbor, there is a limit to what Western financial aid can do for Ukraine. Full article here