WAR IN UKRAINE: May 4, 2023

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 435

My wrap-up on the alleged (alleged in CAPS) drone strike on the Kremlin, based on my live tweets.
An amateur-like false flag operation dressed up as a pretext for some possible violent retaliation on Kyiv…
- Headline: Russia says two drones attacked the Kremlin in Moscow last night in what it alleges was a Ukrainian attempt to kill President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin claimed two drones had been used but they were disabled by Russian defences. Unverified footage on Russian social media showed smoke over central Moscow
- UKR reaction: Ukraine says it has no knowledge of an attempted drone strike on the Kremlin, vehemently denying any involvement. “We do not have information on so called night attacks on Kremlin," the spokesperson for President Zelensky, Serhiy Nykyforov, told CNN. “As President Zelensky has stated numerous times before, Ukraine uses all means at its disposal to free its own territory, not to attack others.”
- U.S. reaction: U.S. Secretary of State Blinken told the Washington Post: “I’d take anything coming out of the Kremlin with a very large shaker of salt. Let’s see what the facts are.”
He said it’s up to Kyiv to decide how to defend itself
- Moscow reaction: Russian Presidency said the alleged drone attack (in, by the way, one of the most protected pieces of real estate on the planet) should be regarded as “a planned terrorist act and an assassination attempt on the president", and Russia "reserves the right to take retaliatory measures wherever and whenever is deemed necessary"
- my analysis: If we are to take the crude Russia playbook at face value, in response to the alleged drone attack on the Kremlin, Moscow may try something major, deadly and stupid. Such as an attack on a key UKR govt installation in Kyiv. The West shouldn’t underestimate their resolve & disregard for human life - especially when they’re backed into a corner…(as Putin once famously said: when a rat is cornered it has only one option: to strike back)
Russia launched a new series of overnight drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, but most of them were downed by Ukraine's air defenses, the military said on May 3. Meanwhile, horrific images came out of Kherson yesterday after heavy Russian strikes: 16 dead already: shells hit civilian objects, 22 people also were injured
The deputy defense ministers of Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey will meet in Istanbul on May 5 to discuss a deal that allows the exports of Ukrainian grains on the Black Sea, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said.
A Ukrainian military commander has vowed not to give up the eastern city of Bakhmut as Russian forces shelled the southern Kherson region for the second night in a row and as an explosion caused another freight train to derail in Russia - RFE/RL
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and American “NeoCons” of intentionally provoking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Monday. In a paragraph-long tweet, the Democratic presidential candidate claimed that Zelensky could have prevented the invasion by just saying the five words “I will not join NATO.” Instead, Kennedy said, Zelensky cozied up to NATO, bowing to alleged pressure from “NeoCons in the Biden White House” and “fascist elements” in his own government. The anti-vaccine activist claimed this military realignment, along with the positioning of nuclear-capable missile launchers along the Russian border, were purposeful “provocations” designed to cross well-known “red lines” established by the Russian government. Kennedy brought his diatribe home with a comparison to the ill-fated U.S. intervention in Iraq, claiming the same “NeoCons” were responsible for both conflicts - Daily Beast
Russian security services are working to ensure that Moscow’s annual Victory Day parade across Red Square on May 9 can go ahead safely despite the risk of a threat from Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, May 2. Victory Day is a key anniversary for President Vladimir Putin, who often evokes the spirit and sacrifice that helped the Soviet Union repel Hitler’s Nazis at a cost of some 27 million lives to boost patriotic sentiment. But several Russian regions have already scaled back events commemorating the Nazi surrender at the end of World War Two in Europe, citing concerns that pro-Ukrainian saboteurs could target the proceedings. Russian energy, logistics and military facilities have been hit in drone and other attacks since Moscow launched what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine - Reuters
Russian ships able to perform underwater operations were present near to where explosions later took place on the Nord Stream pipelines, according to an investigative documentary. The vessels were reportedly located using intercepted Russian navy communications. Underwater explosions last September knocked the two Nord Stream pipelines - built to carry gas from Russia to Europe - out of action. The cause of the blasts is unclear. Formal investigations are still taking place in countries close to the blast site. So far, they have said only that they believe the explosions were the result of sabotage rather than any kind of accident - BBC

Required reading…

Acquisition of Advanced Jets Could Be Key to Ukraine's Spring Counteroffensive

Ukraine is finalizing preparations for its anticipated spring counteroffensive against Russia, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his country will fight with or without Western military jets.

Ukraine’s battlefield progress depends heavily on military supplies from the West. Military experts say, without advanced jets from Kyiv’s NATO allies, the counteroffensive will likely consist of costly battles of attrition.

Read the full analysis by Myroslava Gongadze here