WAR IN UKRAINE: September 17, 2022
Investigators examining bodies found at a mass grave site in Izium. More than 400 bodies, mostly civilians, are believed to have been buried there during the Russian occupation. Signs of torture have been seen on some. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 206
Evidence of massive horrific Russian war crimes is emerging in Izium as advancing forces liberated territory and found mass graves containing mostly civilians but also soldiers. According to reports from journalists and officials in the scene, some bodies show signs of torture or have their hands bound. At least 400 bodies are believed to be in the mass graves next to a cemetery. There are fears that as more areas become liberated, other mass graves will be found.
In an Atlantic Council panel on the war in Ukraine Friday morning with experts and journalists there were several important takeaways: that the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive shouldn’t be rushed - troops need time to rest, equipment needs to be maintained; that now is now time for the West to slow re-supply of weapons to Ukraine (more tanks are needed for example); that bi-partisan support for Ukraine remains high at least for the next six months; despite the uncovering of more widespread Russian war crimes some western politicians appear to be explaining away Russian behaviour.
Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership. The Ukrainian-born envoy, Dmitry Kozak, told Putin that he believed the deal he had hammered out removed the need for Russia to pursue a large-scale occupation of Ukraine, according to these sources. Kozak's recommendation to Putin to adopt the deal is being reported by Reuters for the first time.
For the first time in the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin must contend with the serious prospect of losing it. Early setbacks around Kyiv and Chernigov had been balanced by Russian gains in the south and the east; they could be justified as tactical retreats and thus as Russian choices, regardless of whether they truly were. By contrast, the near rout of Russian soldiers in the Kharkiv region on September 10—and the rapid reconquest by Ukrainian forces of territory spanning some 2,000 square miles in the east and south—clearly showed that Ukraine was on top and that Russian troops may continue to fall to future such offensives. Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive destroyed the illusion of Russian invincibility. It has also heralded a new stage in the West’s expectations. Read the full Foreign Affairs article here
Required reading…
Wartime supply chain crunches from Russia's invasion of Ukraine continuously reveal the value of Ukraine's diverse exports. Steel is no exception.
As of 2018, 120 countries imported steel from Ukraine, and in 2021, Ukraine placed among the world's top 15 steel producers. Naturally following Russia's invasion, Ukrainian exports were slashed in Q1, both because a significant portion of steel manufacturing occurs in Ukraine's east (which has experienced disproportionate damage from the war) and because of the Russian naval blockade on the Black Sea which preventedexports.
The consequences are wide-ranging, from preventing global manufacture of semiconductors for defense technologies to delaying completion of Italian infrastructure projects or post-pandemic economic construction in Finland to hitting vehicle manufacturing giants like Toyota to raising costs of everyday appliances for average citizens. The pinch is felt across the world. Hopefully, protected exports across the Black Sea can soon include Ukrainian goods like steel, beyond only agricultural products.
- Thea Dunlevie
Russia’s grain future in doubt despite good harvest - Oxford Analytica
As Ukrainian grain comes back onto the market, Russia expects a record harvest
US State Department official James O'Brien said on September 10 that Washington is working to address Moscow's complaints about the July agreement covering Ukrainian and Russian grain exports. O'Brien, head of the department's sanctions office, said that despite Moscow's concerns, its food and fertiliser exports had not been observably disrupted. Russian grain output is expected to be high this year, in a sector resilient through years of sanctions, droughts and energy price spikes.
What next
The challenges now facing Russian grain farmers are unlike any experienced before and suggest that past strong performance cannot be sustained. Russia formerly had access to Western seeds and farm machinery and its main export restraints were self-imposed. That has now changed and shortages of seed and equipment are likely to cut into grain output from next year.