WAR IN UKRAINE: July 23, 2022
Ukrainian infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, at the grain agreement signing in Istanbul, along with the Turkish defence minister, Turkish President Erdogan and UN SG Antonio Gutteres.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 150
A grain export deal was signed Friday between Russia and Ukraine, under the auspices of Turkey and the United Nations. As per my live Tweets, it will open up grain shipments from Odesa and two other Ukrainian ports. While Turkish President Erdogan said vessel traffic could resume within days other reports said it could take weeks. The de-mining of waterways by both sides will be challenging. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called it an “unprecedented agreement.” He added: “This agreement did not come east..it’s been a long road.” The signing was important for UN and Gutteres which are widely see to have bungled their war response. The Secretary General told the BBC the deal was probably the most important thing he has done at the UN.
About 18 million tons of wheat, corn and other supplies has been prevented from being exported from Ukraine️ by the Russian blockade. Some of that has moved onto rails and roads, however delays of several days faced by lorry drivers entering Poland from Ukraine make land routes not very viable.
Here's what we know about the details of the deal (CNN):
As part of the deal, grain ships will be able to navigate through a safe corridor in the Black Sea then pass through the Bosphorus in order to reach global markets, the official said.
The vessels will be monitored by a Joint Coordination Centre (JCC), which will be established immediately in Istanbul and include representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN.
Vessels would be inspected before they arrive in Ukraine by Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and UN officials to ensure they are not carrying weapons, according to the official.
Ukraine and Russia have agreed not to attack any ship identified as part of this initiative that is passing through the established channels. In case of an incident, JCC will intervene to resolve any possible issues, the official said.
Representatives from the International Maritime Organization have been coordinating shipments with shipping networks, the official said.
It may take several weeks before vessels start moving so that all logistical details of the deal can properly be implemented and inspection teams can be established, the official said.
The deal is valid for 120 days from the date of signing and can be extended for the same period unless one of the parties has announced their intention to terminate it, said Ukrainian minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, who signed the deal, in a Facebook post.
Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday he had no confidence in Russia to uphold its end of a deal to reopen Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain exports. "Canada's confidence in Russia's reliability is pretty much nil, they have demonstrated nothing but poor faith," Trudeau told reporters according to CBC News. Recently, the Trudeau government watered down its own sanctions to allow the transfer of a repaired generator for Russia’s Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
The White House on Friday announced $270 million in weaponry and other aid to Ukraine, bringing the total since the war began to about $7 billion. The latest batch includes HIMARS rocket launchers and ammunition, and ammunition for howitzers and drones.
In a move being criticized by Ukrainians on social media, parliamentarians voted for huge salary increases for themselves financed by tax revenues and international aid. The salary hike is seen as particularly distasteful during a time of war. Meanwhile, Natalia Pipa, a parliamentarian and secretary of the Education, Science and Innovations Committee, said today that teachers, amongst the most poorly paid, shouldn’t expect a raise anytime soon. According to one report, the changes could as much as double parliamentarians salaries.
Fiona Hill: Putin’s Running Out of Time - A top Russia advisor to three U.S. presidents explains why the world shouldn’t fall for Moscow’s narrative that it can wait out the West in Ukraine. Watch the Foreign Policy discussion with Dr. Hill here.