WAR IN UKRAINE: July 5, 2022 — Michael Bociurkiw

A captured Russian T-72B tank and Howitzer on display in Warsaw’s old town square. They were nabbed by Ukraine’s armed forces in March near Dmytrivka and will be touring various European cities

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 132

Vladimir Putin has ordered his top generals to carry on their advance towards western parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk province after the Russian army captured the country’s far eastern Luhansk region at the weekend. He was speaking at the Kremlin on Monday as Ukrainian forces retreated from Lysychansk, the last city in the Luhansk region that was under Kyiv’s control. A week earlier, Ukrainian forces had pulled out of Severodonetsk, a nearby city across the Siversky Donets river following months of fierce battles. The seizure marks the first time Russia has conquered an entire Ukrainian province since starting a full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February - Financial Times
Russian missiles hit Mykolaiv. Russian missiles struck the port city of Mykolaiv early on July 5, Mykolaiv city Mayor Oleksandr Sienkevych said. Rescuers, medics, emergency crews and utility workers are already working on the ground. Separately, Russia attacked Dnipropetrovsk region with 7 missiles. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Valentyn Reznichenko reported that Russia targeted the region with seven missiles overnight on July 5. Ukrainian military forces downed six of them, while one hit a residential area in the city of Pokrovsk, damaging a few houses. No casualties have been reported yet - Kyiv Independent
At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Switzerland, Prime Minister Shmyhal presented a map identifying which city of Ukraine will be restored by which European country. The United States and Turkey will restore Kharkiv, the Czech Republic, Finland and Sweden - Luhansk, Belgium - Mykolayiv, Sweden and the Netherlands - Kherson, Switzerland - Odesa. Separately, Switzerland will double its aid to Ukraine to CHF100 million ($104 million) by the end of 2023, Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, speaking in Lugano, said the cost of rebuilding Ukraine following Russia’s invasion could reach $750 billion (CHF720 billion). However Ukrainian Business News pegged the figure at much higher. “It may be that Ukraine will need $2 trillion by the end of 2024. It all depends on the total damage at the war’s end.”
Shmyhal said rich Russians should help pay Ukraine’s reconstruction bill. “We believe that the key source of recovery should be the confiscated assets of Russia and Russian oligarchs,” he said, citing estimates that frozen Russian assets were worth $300-$500 billion.
Russia could propose a cease-fire, putting Zelenskyy in a tough position, says Victor Abramowicz of Ostoya Consulting. He told CNBC that the amount of military and financial support that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's thinks he can expect from the West will determine whether he would accept such an offer. Watch interview here
As Russia declares victory in Luhansk, Ukraine captures tanks and regains territory in neighbouring region. Read the full report by the CBC’s Chris Brown here
The RFE/RL investigative programme, Schemes, has documented that Russia is routinely exporting stolen Ukrainian grain to Turkey. Satellite images show the movements of the ships carrying the cargo. Ankara has denied accepting Ukrainian grain.

Fossil fuel exports are a key enabler of Russiaʼs military buildup and brutal aggression against Ukraine. To shed light on who purchases Russiaʼs oil, gas and coal, and how the volume and value of imports have changed since the start of the invasion, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air has compiled a detailed dataset of pipeline and seaborne trade in Russian fossil fuels. Here are the key findings:

● Russia earned EUR 93 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports in the first 100 days of the war (February 24 to June 3). The EU imported 61% of this, worth approximately 57 billion EUR.

● The largest importers were China (EUR12.6bln), Germany (EUR12.1bln), Italy (EUR7.8bln), Netherlands (EUR7.8bln), Turkey (EUR6.7bln), Poland (EUR4.4bln), France (EUR4.3bln) and India (EUR3.4bln).

● The revenue comprises an estimated EUR46bln for crude oil, EUR24bln for pipeline gas, EUR13bln for oil products, EUR5.1bln for LNG and EUR4.8bln for coal.

● India, France, China, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia increased imports.

● India became a significant importer of Russian crude oil, buying 18% of the countryʼs exports. A significant share of the crude is re-exported as refined oil products, including to the U.S. and Europe, an important loophole to close.