WAR IN UKRAINE: July 5, 2023

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 497

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during a telephone call on July 4 that he looks forward to "continuing our fruitful cooperation" after Stoltenberg's contract to lead the military alliance was extended by one year. Meanwhile, Zelenskiy will visit Bulgaria on July 6, according to Bulgarian media reports confirmed by RFE/RL.

  • The Armed Forces of Ukraine: “officially inform about the possible preparation, in the near future, of a provocation on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been occupied by Russian terrorists since March 4, 2022…According to operational information, foreign objects similar to explosive devices were placed on the outer roof of the third and fourth power units of the ZNPP today. Their detonation should not damage power units, but may create a picture of shelling from Ukraine. Russian mass media and Telegram channels have already started misinformation campaign about this. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not violate the norms of international humanitarian law, monitor and control the situation and are ready to act under any conditions.”

  • From the International Atomic Energy Agency: “Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost the connection to its main external power line early this morning, forcing it to rely on recently restored back-up power supplies for the electricity it needs for essential nuclear safety and security functions, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said. The ZNPP’s sole remaining 750 kilovolt (kV) power line – out of four available before the conflict – was disconnected at 01:21am local time today. It was not immediately known what had prompted the power cut or how long it would last. Europe’s largest nuclear power plant has been experiencing major off-site power problems since the conflict began in early 2022, exacerbating the nuclear safety and security risks facing the site currently located on the frontline. The disconnection of the 750 kV power line meant the ZNPP had to switch to its only available 330 kV back-up power line for off-site electricity that is required, for example, to pump cooling water for the plant. This 330 kV line was only reconnected to the plant on 1 July after being damaged four months ago. “This time the plant avoided a complete loss of all external power – which has happened seven times previously during the conflict – but the latest power line cut again demonstrates the precarious nuclear safety and security situation at the plant,” Director General Grossi said.

  • Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky: “Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian military has placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant. Perhaps they have some other scenario. But in any case, the world sees – can't but see – that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia and no one else. Unfortunately, there was no timely and large-scale response to the terrorist attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. And this may incite the Kremlin to commit new evil. It is the responsibility of everyone in the world to stop it, no one can stand aside, as radiation affects everyone.”

  • On the evening of 4 July, several explosions occurred in the occupied city of Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and puffs of smoke were observed over the city.

  • Russia on Tuesday restated a demand for its state agricultural bank to be reconnected to the global SWIFT payments system to avert the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal, and said it would not accept a reported compromise proposal. With 13 days remaining until the expiry of the deal, which has allowed Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports despite Russia's invasion, Moscow said there had been no progress on any of its key demands, including the banking issue - Reuters


Required reading…

Zelensky’s Fight After the War

What Peace Will Mean for Ukraine’s Democracy

When the war finally ends, Zelensky will face major challenges. Wartime leadership requires very different skills and capacities than does leadership during peacetime. Notably, Ukrainians are less confident in Zelensky’s leadership when they are asked to consider the future. In the same July 2022 poll, 55 percent identified Zelensky as the best person to lead the country’s postwar reconstruction, and the share saying there was no difference between him and the alternatives or that refused to answer was 28 percent. To overcome these potential misgivings, Zelensky will have to rebuild and fortify not only Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure but also its democracy. He will have to end the country’s tendency to shape government around personal patronage networks, which are prone to corruption, and craft an inclusive conception of patriotism. He will also need to respect the rules and the spirit of the Ukrainian constitution. Zelensky’s ability to meet these challenges will determine his country’s fate and the future of its democracy.

Read the full Foreign Affairs analysis here