WAR IN UKRAINE: July 6, 2023
The aftermath of the Russian missile strike on Lviv
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 498
A Russian rocket has hit the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. The overnight attack killed at least four people and injuring 34 & caused massive property damage. More than 250 apartments had reportedly been destroyed, and a number of building roofs had been blown away. A school and polytechnic university dormitories were also damaged. Until now, the capital of western Ukraine has remained largely untouched. That’s accounted for massive tourism returning to a city that’s been described as an open museum under the skies. Ukrainian media reported that the missile was launched from the Black Sea, first flew north, towards Kyiv, using the terrain and the Dnipro river, and then abruptly changed course to the west
Suspilne reports that Lviv’s mayor has declared there will be a two-day mourning period for the victims of the overnight missile attack which has killed at least four people in the western Ukrainian city. The mayor said only five people took cover in a bomb shelter near the epicenter. However Ukrainian media are reporting that as many as ten shelters in Lviv were closed at the time of the attack.
Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko says Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner mercenary group, is in St Petersburg, Russia. After leading an armed rebellion in Russia he was meant to go to Belarus. Lukashenko says some Wagner fighters are at a new camp set up in Belarus. It is hard to say if Prigozhin being in Russia is an act of defiance. But it could spell more trouble for President Putin. As I said on-air, it is hard to imagine the Wagner leader driving off into the sunset on a Belarusian tractor or digging potato fields. As Lukashenko revealed that Prigozhin is in Russia and not Belarus, Russian state media aired video purported to be of a police raid of Prigozhin’s office and residence in Saint Petersburg, stepping up an apparent propaganda campaign against the Wagner mercenary boss, CNN reported
More than 30 combat engagements have taken place across eastern Ukraine within the past day, according to Ukraine's General Staff. Russia is continuing to focus "its main efforts" there in areas including Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka. A top Ukrainian commander described the situation in the devastated city of Bakhmut as "quite positive and optimistic." Meanwhile, at least 68 people were injured by Ukrainian shelling in the Makiivka district in occupied Donetsk, Russian state media said. Ukrainian strikes also caused an oil depot fire there, state-run news agency RIA Novosti said - CNN
Ukrainian commanders said that the counteroffensive is developing according to the plan, but the military has not yet deployed its full potential, ABC News wrote on July 5.
Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have not found explosives during their inspections of parts of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in recent days and weeks, Director General Rafael Grossi said on July 5 - Kyiv Independent
Staffers working for Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s network of propaganda outlets were forced to take lie detector tests, according to a new report. The independent media outlet Bumaga interviewed several former employees of publications that have been dismantled following Prigozhin’s chaotic mutiny late last month. Vladimir Yagudayev, who said he and a colleague had joked about the Wagner boss’ resemblance to Donald Trump just before he launched his insurrection, told Bumaga that a “psychiatrist from some former military structures” carried out polygraph testing, usually to determine if staffers had any sympathy for the Russian opposition. Another former staffer recalled employees being taken to a room where “security service specialists worked with them.” Another person who worked for one of Prigozhin’s most well-known outlets, RIA-FAN, said a man who identified himself as a former officer of the Interior Ministry’s criminal investigations department grilled him during his polygraph: “At a certain point I got the distinct feeling I was being interrogated.” Employees also described being closely watched, with one source saying, “They tracked the electronic passes, the cameras, and all recordings from the computer screens were transmitted to the security service.”
Once again, I was unable to observe any ships on the horizon off of the coast of Odesa yesterday. There’s just one bulk carrier loading grain dockside. To me, this sleeps trouble for the Black Sea Grain Initiative (usually there’s up to a half dozen ships visible on the horizon). The good news from Odesa is that it looks like Black Sea waters are now safe for swimming.
The Black Sea coast in Odesa Wednesday
Required reading..
Zelensky’s Fight After the War
What Peace Will Mean for Ukraine’s Democracy
Russia’s war against Ukraine has transformed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s image. Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, many regarded him as an untested figure whose former career as an actor and comedian did not inspire much confidence. After it began, however, he became—in former U.S. President George W. Bush’s judgment—“the Winston Churchill of our time.”
In the war’s first days, many Western observers assumed that Zelensky would buckle, flee, surrender, or die. Instead, he stayed in Kyiv and led Ukraine with resolve. His popularity skyrocketed. A July 2022 poll conducted by the authors and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 65 percent of people in unoccupied Ukraine believed Zelensky to be the best man to lead the country to victory. The second most popular choice, former president Petro Poroshenko, had the support of five percent. Another 19 percent either said there was no difference between the politicians or declined to answer. More than 80 percent of respondents described Zelensky as intelligent, strong, and honest.
But when the war finally ends, Zelensky will face major challenges. Wartime leadership requires very different skills and capacities than does leadership during peacetime. Notably, Ukrainians are less confident in Zelensky’s leadership when they are asked to consider the future. In the same July 2022 poll, 55 percent identified Zelensky as the best person to lead the country’s postwar reconstruction, and the share saying there was no difference between him and the alternatives or that refused to answer was 28 percent. To overcome these potential misgivings, Zelensky will have to rebuild and fortify not only Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure but also its democracy. He will have to end the country’s tendency to shape government around personal patronage networks, which are prone to corruption, and craft an inclusive conception of patriotism. He will also need to respect the rules and the spirit of the Ukrainian constitution. Zelensky’s ability to meet these challenges will determine his country’s fate and the future of its democracy.
Read the full Foreign Affairs article here