WAR IN UKRAINE: June 11, 2022
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 107
“Intense street to street fighting is ongoing” in Severodonetsk, according to the UK’s Ministry of Defence. It says Russian forces have not made advances into the south of the city, but both sides are likely suffering high numbers of casualties - BBC
Ukraine says 'it’s an artillery war now, everything depends on what West gives us.' Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, told the Guardian that Ukraine is losing in terms of artillery, with one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian ones, and is now almost solely reliant on weapons from the West. Skibitsky stressed the need for long-range rocket systems to destroy Russian artillery pieces from afar - Kyiv Independent
Video shows Russians stealing Ukrainian grain from occupied city. Kremlin-controlled media outlet RIA Novosti posted a video of Russia-backed militants stealing Ukrainian grain from the elevators in Starobilsk, a newly-occupied city in Luhansk Oblast. In the video, they load grain into railway cars to ship it to Russia. The video says that “the first 650 tons of grain” was shipped to Russia - Kyiv Independent
Japan PM: Russia’s war in Ukraine will affect every country in the world. Fumio Kishida said during Asia’s top security summit Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that the ongoing war in Ukraine could provoke a war in East Asia. According to him, as dictatorships may try to establish a new world order, Japan will have to reconsider its long-standing policy of arms reduction.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to Kyiv on Saturday to discuss Ukraine’s bid to join the EU with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “I will take stock of the joint work needed for reconstruction and of the progress made by Ukraine on its European path,” von der Leyen said on Twitter after arriving in the Ukrainian capital on an unannounced visit - Politico
Ukraine President Zelensky responds negatively to a petition to lift the ban for men of 18-60 years old to leave Ukraine. He cited Article 17 of the Constitution, which says that defending the sovereignty of Ukraine is the responsibility of its people - Kyiv Independent
Analysis from Oxford Analytica…
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu met yesterday but failed to agree a plan to ensure safe maritime exports of Ukrainian wheat from Odessa. Russia's naval blockade has left millions of tonnes of grain sitting in the port, reducing global supply at a time of food crisis. Moscow blames Kyiv for the stand-off while continuing to wage a destructive war that degrades Ukraine's food production and export capacity.
What next? Russia will ignore foreign criticism and use quotas to restrict wheat exports despite a plentiful supply. It is poised to benefit from higher global grain prices and tight supplies. Russian military action will disrupt farming in east-central Ukraine and prevent maritime exports, unless the Turkish arrangement successfully unblocks Odessa, or the EU can help transport Ukrainian grain overland.
