WAR IN UKRAINE: May 7, 2022
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 72
Ukraine is continuing a counter-offensive near the city of Kharkiv, and says it has recaptured five villages. The US-based Institute for the Study of War says the Ukrainians could soon free Kharkiv from the threat of Russian artillery - BBC
In its first official statement since Moscow’s invasion of its western neighbor, the UN Security Council, including Russia, has adopted a brief text expressing "deep concern regarding the maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine." According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the text, written by Norway and Mexico and adopted on May 6, did not mention a “war,” “conflict,” or “invasion” -- as many council members call Russia’s military action -- or a “special military operation” as Moscow refers to it.
My take: the fact that the text was watered down comes as no surprise given that one of the co-authors - Mexico - has adopted a surprisingly soft stance towards Russia. From well before the hostilities commenced, the UN has shown itself to be toothless and has bungled its response. As I said in the Atlantic Council panel last night, senior UN officials refused to take seriously warnings of a Russian invasion - in the process missing a crucial window to pre-position key personnel and supplies.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has outlined his conditions for entering peace talks with Russia, demanding a restoration of preinvasion borders, the return of more than 5 million refugees, membership in the European Union and accountability from Russian military leaders before Kyiv would consider laying down its arms, reports The Washington Post. However he did not demand the return of illegally-annexed Crimea.
Ahead of this coming Monday, when Russia plans to hold victory parades, Ukrainian mayors are urging their residents to take extra precautions such as staying indoors. The mayor of the western Ukrainian city of Ivano Frankivsk has even advised his citizens to leave.
Disruptions due to the war in Ukraine have raised food security even further up China’s agenda, says Oxford Analytica. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added urgency to China's goal of maximising food self-sufficiency. Food security had already been pushed to the centre of Beijing’s policy agenda by tensions with the West and the economic dislocation caused by COVID-19. In the face of a sharp increase in international fertiliser prices, Beijing has already released some fertiliser from its reserves. Even a short-lived conflict will require adjustments. China’s imports of most grains except soya are small relative to domestic production so the consequences of disrupted shipments will be manageable. A more serious threat is likely to be the inflationary implications for food and farm inputs, especially fertiliser.
My take: previous to the commencement of hostilities, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described China as the country’s biggest economic partner. Now, China is the only country which has leverage with Russia. Will the Sino-Ukrainian relationship have any impact on Beijing’s actions (or is Beijing too obsessed with taking over Taiwan to lend time to other bilateral relationships?).How does a European country stay neutral when war rages in Europe? Switzerland managed it during the first and second world wars, but now, watching Russia's attack on Ukraine, many Swiss are rethinking their long-established position. And why aren’t the Swiss allowing their ammunition to be used in tanks donated to Ukraine by the Germans?Full story by the BBC’s Imogen Foulkes here
Out with embarrassments like Jared Kushner. In with role models like Volodymyr Zelensky. Jewish pride is making a comeback. And that’s no joke. Read this feature by Peter Mehlman
Tune into CNN on Monday. I’ll be joining anchor Isa Soares for coverage of the events of May 9: 7am-10am LDN / 9am-12noon Kyiv